Team: 2023-24 Washington Capitals

Initial Creation Date: Jun. 24, 2023

Published: Jun. 24, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

After SO many responses to my team "First Post V2", I thought it might be fun to explain some of my reasoning for why I built the team like I did. If there is enough engagement, I'd like to do 2-3 of these posts, focusing on one move at a time that I made in that roster. Figured I would start with an "easy" one(lol). There wasnt a whole lot of love for signing Bunting, and it seemed that most thought he wouldnt "fit" well on the Caps roster. I am going to compare him to Brad Marchand, to help justify my position. I very much am a stat head, but I also understand that stats can be deceiving. Because of this, I will try my best to mix in the "eye test" as much as possible. The stats I will be focusing on are each players seasons at age 26 and 27. As trying to breakdown more would make this post much longer than it already is gonna be, and because Bunting has really only had 2 seasons worth addressing at this point in his career.

Marchand v Bunting : At age 26 and 27, Marchand played in 77 games each season putting up 24-18-42 at 26, and 37-24-61 at 27. Before this point in his career, he had already recorded two 50+ point seasons and had established that he was a valuable asset, becoming a cornerstone in the franchise as Pasta was entering the league. Most fans outside of Boston, have absolutely hated Marchard, as many occurrences on the ice were deemed "over the line", with his character often being criticized. He didnt get the nickname "Little ball of hate" for nothing. Fast forwarding to today, Marchand has had a career that is worthy of hall of fame consideration, and whether you love him or hate him, there is no denying his skill and impact he's had for Boston. "How does he compare to Bunting? Marchand is defensively responsible!", You might ask. Well, yes, Marchand definitely is more solid playing D, but it isnt quite as big of a difference as you might think. Leaving out the fact that Marchand plays on the PK, lets look at a few stats and see how they compare. Remember, Im using ages 26 and 27 for the purpose of this post.

Defensive(ish) Production
Bunting
TOI 15:33 / 15:48
BLK 21 / 18
HIT 85 / 85
TK 36 / 49
CF% 59.2 / 55.2
REL 7.1 / 6.1
FF% 58.6 / 55.7
REL 6.6 / 5.5
OiGA 64 / 49
PDO 101.8 / 103.4
DZS% 38.3 / 32.2

Marchand
TOI 16:54 / 18:36
BLK 28 / 35
HIT 72 / 65
TK 52 / 43
CF% 56.2 / 53.9
REL 5.5 / 5.8
FF% 55.4 / 54.9
REL 5.5 / 6.8
OiGA 63 / 64 (50/50 minus PK)
PDO 97.3 / 100
DZS% 53.5 / 57.1

If you consider the impact to Corsi, Fenwick and PDO that the PK time would have, those numbers would be about even. No, Im not doing the math on this, too lazy :)

To me, this comparison is very close in terms of these stats. Each player has advantages in different categories, but overall, they are about the same. I wont analyze each stat, but it is very interesting to compare.

Offensive Production -
Bunting
G/60 1.1 / 1.1
A/60 2.0 / 1.2
P/60 3.1 / 2.3
SOG 175 / 174
SH% 13.1 / 13.2
GV 23 / 38
OiGF 101 / 88
OZS% 61.7 / 67.8

Marchand
G/60 1.1 / 1.5
A/60 0.8 / 1.0
P/60 1.9 / 2.4 (HR.com Not my math)
SOG 180 / 250
SH% 13.3 / 14.8
GV 45 / 69
OiGF 61 / 80
OZS% 46.5 / 42.9

These numbers are where Bunting really closes the gap in my mind. He has been getting less than 16 minutes TOI and still has been putting up very comparable numbers to Marchand, who at the same age was getting almost 17 and 18.5 minutes per game, respectively. Bunting has had a much higher assist rate as well. Also, when comparing GV and OiGF, Bunting has the clear advantage.

Digging into these stats has actually given me more of an appreciation for Bunting. I'm not crazy, so I still think Marchand at this age was more valuable, especially since he was/is such a great PK guy. However, I dont think Bunting is that far off, and obviously time will tell if he can have a CAREER that is comparable to Marchand. I think a player that has proven what Bunting has and that has the potential that he has, should not just be dismissed because of a few stupid moments. The upside is well worth the risk.

I've given Bunting a 3 Year/$5.75M AAV contract that I feel is appropriate considering what I have just reviewed. I'm interested to hear everybody's thoughts on this. Good or bad. I do think we can all agree that Bunting would be an improvement over Mantha! Thanks for reading!

Hugh Mann


PS - Yeah, I Know, Im over the cap here. This wasnt a roster building exercise, just a focused take on Bunting :)