Petry won't waive for SJ. Also seriously doubt Dubas is accepting this even if Petry would go to SJ.

A 1st and a first rd prospect is now even too much an asking price for EK65 now? Huh, interesting.

Even with the retention AND you get to bail on arguably what should be the worst two years of Petrys contract

No team Karlsson would waive his NMC would take him for free. Four years retention of $2.5m isn't worth this package. Karlsson hasn't been a worth a $9m cap hit over the first four years of his contract. Dubas and Waddell are not paying Karlsson like he is a perennial Norris contender. Because he hasn't been. And there's little reason to think he will be over the next 4 years. If San Jose is demanding that kind of return then they simply won't be trading him.

Karlsson was worth more than his full contract ($11.5M) this past season.

Yes and that selectively ignores the previous three years and the next four. Hence why I specifically stated he wasn't worth $9m over the first four years of his contract. If Karlsson has been a Norris contender all of the last four years his trade value would be extremely high.

What did Burns get from Car last year? Expect slightly more.

Burns isn’t a comparable.

Burns was 37 with a contract taking him to 40 at the time of his trade. No one wanted Burns at ages 38, 39, 40.

EK65 is 33 with a contract taking him to 37 (and just had the best season of his career).

Except half the league should have wanted Burns for his age 38, 39, and 40 year seasons if they had been paying attention. Especially at a $5.3M cap hit.

Yeah sorry I misread your comment as meaning he had never been worth his cap hit in any of the first four years of his current deal.

However, with retention he should be a significant steal now that he's healthy and playing a style that suits him.

Burns also has a much better cap hit and durability. The variance on Karlsson is more dramatic so I would expect the trade return to reflect that; better assets acquired yet also more retention/bad money coming back.

He did. Burns is older, but he has missed 14 games in his last 9 seasons combined. Karl has 1 full season in his last 6 years. Karl is also double Burns' cap hit.

Karl also shot over 10% on the year 5v5. His career numbers are roughly half that.

He had a really good and lucky season. He also has a NMC and wants out, with very few teams interested.

Sorry but he is not worth much more than what Burns got.

Except Burns fetched maybe a quarter of his market value in that trade because apparently nobody except Carolina was paying attention (and Grier wanted to do Burns a favor).

What did talking about shooting % or missed games have anything to do with my comment? Which was based on age and remaining contract?

Because age implies decreasing effectiveness and more missed time. Burns is just as effective now as he was 9 years ago. He is also available. Based on injury history, I would expect the Burns contract to age much better than Karl's.

There was very little market for Burns. He wanted out.

There is very little market for Karl. He wants out.

Burns is more steady and reliable.
Karl is more dynamic but only available for about 2/3 of a season.

The return will be quite similar (with whatever is required to move Petry / Granlund added into it).

But much like everyone likes to claim that EK65 numbers last year are an anomaly, is it also not an anomaly that Burns had the season he did at age 37 lol

I don't disagree too much, but I'm just very puzzled why there wasn't more of a market for Burns. Maybe he used his 3 team trade list to effectively control his destiny.

At the very least Karlsson seems open to more teams. And I hope you do realize how pitiful the return for Burns was. We essentially traded a top 10 RHD with $8.1M retained for a 3rd, a 4th liner, and an unranked AHL prospect.

By your logic if the Penguins gave up a 2nd and 3rd round pick for Karlsson, they'd already be paying more than what Burns fetched. Literally two mid picks for a Norris trophy winner and you still have to pay him $10M not to play for you.

Not really. Burns' 1.27 points per 60 (5v5) last year were about in line with the last few years. He has dropped a bit point wise since 5 years ago but recently, it's about right.

Karl is open to more teams but maybe 4 instead of 3.

I know the return for Burns was not great but there were several factors working against SJ.
His age
His no team trade list
He wanted out

Those same things work against Karl, but replacing age with health and a giant contract.

If SJ got a 2nd and 3rd with the same % of retention as Burns and no contracts back, that would probably be a win for SJ. Much more likely a 1st and bad contract are involved as well.