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McLeod Arbitration Award Ramifications For Bouchard

Created by: CD282
Team: 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 24, 2023
Published: Jul. 24, 2023
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
If McLeod scores the same contract Kurashev did, how do the Oilers handle Evan Bouchard and get under the cap? As I have the roster set up, there are 21 players signed and just $3.258M in cap space. If Bouchard won't accept that on a 1-year deal, Edmonton will have to make some roster changes.

Here's one option, albeit an unlikely one. The arbitration process gives Edmonton another buyout window, which can only be used on contracts larger than ~$4M. In this scenario they buyout Campbell, sign a backup for $800k or so, and are left with $5.916M to put towards Evan Bouchard. How many years does that buy? Five? Bouchard's closest comp by career GP and career points is Dougie Hamilton, who signed a 6 x $5.75M deal when he was coming off his ELC. That's $6.72M in today's dollars though (8.05%), so that's too rich for Edmonton. Dobson is at 3 x $4M, while Chabot is at 8 x 9.82%, so that's the frame essentially.

Based on these numbers:

3 x $4.0M
4 x $4.75M
5 x $5.75M (includes 1 UFA year)
6 x $6.75M (includes 2 UFA years)
7 x $7.5M (includes 3 UFA years)
8 x $8.2M (includes 4 UFA years)

I hate dead cap so it's not a path I'd recommend, but it might just end up being the best possible outcome for the team.

And anyways, Bouchard could easily live up to the ~$7.25M cap hit of his contract + the Campbell buyout.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$2,250,000
5$5,750,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$800,000
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2024
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2025
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2026
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,500,000$83,333,292$850,000$4,725,000$166,708
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 6
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$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
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$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 5
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$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 3
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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$775,000$775,000 (Performance Bonus$3,225,000$3M)
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
C
RFA - 2
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$874,125$874,125
RW, C
RFA - 1
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$650,000$650K)
LW, C
RFA - 1
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$900,000$900,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$775,000$775,000
C
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$9,250,000$9,250,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 7
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$3,250,000$3,250,000
RD
UFA - 2
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$2,600,000$2,600,000
G
UFA - 3
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
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$5,750,000$5,750,000
RD
RFA - 2
$800,000$800,000
G
UFA
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
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$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
RFA - 1
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$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1

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Jul. 24, 2023 at 3:51 p.m.
#1
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Bouchard doesn't have arbitration rights.

Better question, if you flipped Bouchard for assets, what could you get back? If his agent wants to play hardball, Edmonton could flip him for picks/prospects, and move some of those assets to take on another PP player.

Wonder what Tyson Barrie would cost. I'd bet he'd work well with the PP.
Jul. 24, 2023 at 3:57 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Gordies_Elbow
Bouchard doesn't have arbitration rights.

I didn't say or even imply Bouchard had arbitration rights, not sure why you felt the need to point that out.

Quoting: Gordies_Elbow
Better question, if you flipped Bouchard for assets, what could you get back? If his agent wants to play hardball, Edmonton could flip him for picks/prospects, and move some of those assets to take on another PP player.

You aren't getting an equivalent player who will accept less money though, so trading Bouchard is a non-starter. It's guaranteed to make the team worse now and in the future.

And Bouchard is much more than just a PP quarterback.
Jul. 24, 2023 at 6:00 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: CD282
I didn't say or even imply Bouchard had arbitration rights, not sure why you felt the need to point that out.


An RFA player without arbitration rights doesn't really have any other options (maybe europe?) He's not negotiating a multi year deal unless Holland wants to, and with the cap expected to rise by 5% and with Neal's money coming off the books, Holland can wait.

Quoting: CD282

You aren't getting an equivalent player who will accept less money though, so trading Bouchard is a non-starter. It's guaranteed to make the team worse now and in the future.

And Bouchard is much more than just a PP quarterback.


Bouchard's not even to 200 games, I don't know what he is. I can say that he had 5 goals and 25 points last season 5 on 5, and has had a positive zone start push since day one. He's getting better defensively, but he's not taking on the hard minutes, so for now, looks like a second pairing defender that plays on the PP.

Bouchard is in a difficult spot when it comes to cap hit. If you can buy 3 UFA years at $5.75m, I'd have no concerns, but he's not going to sign a longer term deal. Buying one UFA year or none? Why does Holland do that?

If Edmonton wants a one year deal (and I think that they will) its in Bouchard's interest to sign it, and go to arbitration next year (I believe he will be arb eligible then.) I think he gets a one year deal closer to $3.5m, and Edmonton looks to go longer term on the next deal.
Jul. 24, 2023 at 8:37 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Gordies_Elbow
An RFA player without arbitration rights doesn't really have any other options (maybe europe?) He's not negotiating a multi year deal unless Holland wants to, and with the cap expected to rise by 5% and with Neal's money coming off the books, Holland can wait.

"Unless Holland wants to" is kind of the point of the post. Bouchard can refuse to sign a 1 year deal and holdout - plenty of players have done that - but there IS a way to get him signed with term as shown above, and maybe that would actually be best for the team long-term.

Quoting: Gordies_Elbow
Bouchard's not even to 200 games, I don't know what he is. I can say that he had 5 goals and 25 points last season 5 on 5, and has had a positive zone start push since day one. He's getting better defensively, but he's not taking on the hard minutes, so for now, looks like a second pairing defender that plays on the PP.

He had 25 points at 5v5 last year and you still don't know what he is?? You realize 25 points at 5v5 ranks him 31st in the league among defensemen, right? Despite not playing a ton of minutes. Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson and Owen Power all scored 24 points, and they all played more minutes than Bouchard. He's one of the league's premier offensive defensemen already, and he coming along defensively too.

He got moved up to the top-4 late in the season, and responded with 19 points in the final 19 games, and then 17 points in 12 playoff games.

Yet you're suggesting he be flipped for picks/prospects. awesome face
 
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