I'm gonna break this down by 2 groups:
1. Deals made during the 2023-2024 season.
2. Deals made during the draft and off-season.
1. Deals made during this season:
The Oilers will be focusing on money-in-money-out deals. They won't be making that big deal for a new goaltender or swinging for another Ekholm. They need to build now and get more depth and consistency. Two things need to be mentioned. Firstly, I don't see them being able to move Campbell this year for what they are willing to pay. And secondly, Broberg will have to be moved in the next 2ish weeks.
Deal 1: Broberg trade (around Dec. 15th-21st)
Broberg and a 6th for Wahlstrom and a 4th.
- Rationale: Broberg has requested a trade. Seems like a fair swap between two players who need a change of scenery. Although I think Broberg still has more value than Wahlstrom, that's why the pick swap essentially becomes a trade back in the draft for NYI. NOTE: I am aware the islanders have lots of depth on the left side... play Broberg on the right. Wahlstrom is the best swap option in a trade for Broberg of what I have seen out there.
Deal 2: Goaltending
Campbell will be brought up before Christmas. He'll have one good game, we will all get our hopes up and then he will lay a stinker. I'm talking 4 goals on 18 shots, classic Campbell game. This will cause the Oilers to send him back down (his career with the Oilers will be done) and they will want to make a move for another short-term rental backup to Skinner.
I think this will come down to players like Primeau, Reimer, and Kähkönen. I don't see them having the ability to swing deals for players like Hart or Elvis right now, and deals for Allen, Mrazek, or goalies on that level would cost more than I think it's worth. So in my mind, Reimer is the play. DET has 3 goalies, the Oilers love players with off-ice issues. And the money can work out if there is some retention. And the cost would be low.
Reimer for Shane Lachance and a 4th.
- Rationale: This is from a DET perspective. They have 3 goalies. Getting a 4th for a player who will be a UFA is solid. Lachance is a good prospect who is playing well in Boston. 11pts in 16gp. I think there is a threat he won't sign in EDM. 6'4" LW. Size and skill at a somewhat need of a position for DET.
I did this all in a test ACGM so the money works, cap space is $21,708 after Holloway comes off LTIR.
This team will probably finish between a wildcard spot and one of those 5 teams out. Let's be realistic and say they just miss it and end up with the 14th pick.
Major issues going into the off-season:
1. Drai will be UFA in a year
2. Defence, but RD especially is terrible
3. Goaltending
4. Have to buy out Campbell and the Brown bonus eats up any cap space
5. Prospect pool/depth is pretty anemic
Firstly they should try to re-sign Drai to a deal at around 8x13mil. This needs to be their #1 priority and I think there is a greater than 95% chance it will happen. Drai loves Edmonton and the fans here, he and McDavid believe in the org, and they aren't the type of characters to run from adversity. The org has done everything for them, I think that gets rewarded with loyalty.
2. Deals made during the draft and off-season.
Campbell gets bought out right away. his penalty is low, and worth paying rather than giving up assets you need to dump him.
The first thing I think we need to do is move out the money we have committed on the back end. Whether that is Ceci or Kulak is up to you. I think Ceci is the move. Ceci has been great this year, by great I mean better than his last couple of years. For that reason, I don't think he is a pure cap dump. teams that need RD will pay something to take him. But I also recognize teams will know the Oiler's situation so that price is very low.
Ceci to the Sharks for a 7th round pick.
- Rationale: This deal makes sense for the Sharks because they do need some right-shot dmen, also if they want to ship him at the deadline, after retaining they could get a positive asset for relatively nothing. The Oilers need bullets to boost their prospect pool, after having no picks last year they should try to get as many as they can this year.
Merzlikins for 2 2nds.
- Rationale: Where there is smoke, there is fire. But I don't think a deal can be done this year. It depends on how you view Elvis. For me, he is a good goalie on a bad team who hasn't been himself since his best friend died tragically. Columbus would almost certainly have to retain on any deal to get out from under his contract. That bumps the deal from a 2nd and 3rd to 2 2nds. I think this makes sense for both teams, but let me know if you think the value is off (please don't just call me an idiot), I struggled with the hypothetical evaluation taking everything into account.
Those are the two moves I think we make before the draft. I think our draft plays out like this:
- 14: Beckett Sennecke: I'm really high on this guy, size and skill. Soft hands and is a good skater. I think we need a big play-making RW
- 106: Eric Olsson: 6'4" Big Swedish goalie. Has struggled in the USHL this year but I think that's more on the team than him. Look at his J20 and tournament numbers. Worth a flier.
- 136: Jack Van Volsen: Quality two-way centre. depth player. he's playing in the OHL. Higher upside pick.
- 166: Tanner Henricks: Young RD playing in USHL, late birthday. Good size for his age 6'3", 200.
- 193: Ivan Anoshko: Overage centre I felt could've gone as high as the fifth round last year. PPG player in the MHL last year, he has good hands and is a high-iq distributor.
Free-Agency:
1. Re-Signings:
- Holloway: I think he signs a 1 or 2 year deal between 1-1.5 million. Kind of a prove-it deal, he hasn't been able to stay healthy.
- Lavoie: Kind of the same thing, 1 year prove it deal again.
- Foegele: I think they will want to resign him for around the same AAV, some teams might also want him, if that's the case pivot to Lafferty/etc.
- Vinny: Low cap deal as depth, sure.
- Janmark: Do not bring back lmfao
- The rest: either prospects or depth, pretty 50/50 on some of these just going off my opinion.
2. Signings;
- Demelo: He needs to be the guy we target in Free Agency. His deal will likely be around 4ish million. the perfect defensive RD we need.
- Lafferty: I think the Oilers love him. Kind of reminds me of Hyman. Try to sign him, I may have underpaid him, same deal as Foegele.
- McMann: Another guy I think the Oilers like. Hard worker, but has only played 4 games, The Leafs could probably keep him for this AAV, if that is the case add in any bottom-line LW you think.
- Ruhwedel: Kind of a placeholder RD for any player we can sign if we want to run 11-7.
End verdict? I think this team is better than currently. Demelo for Ceci is a major upgrade, and if we can't get Pesce (we can't) we should be all-in on signing him. We need to target more players like Hyman. hard workers with noses for the net. Banking big time on Elvis bouncing back, but not paying major assets to get there.
Sharks have Benning, Burroughs, Rutta, Addison, Embersom at RD all who I would start over Ceci, and on top of that they are actively trying to dump some of the older guys as is! Plus in the off-season sharks should be looking for legit top 4 RD not a has been!
Sharks have Benning, Burroughs, Rutta, Addison, Embersom at RD all who I would start over Ceci, and on top of that they are actively trying to dump some of the older guys as is! Plus in the off-season sharks should be looking for legit top 4 RD not a has been!
Sorry but pass!
That's fair. More of a price rather than a specific team move.
Columbus won’t be retaining on Elvis for 4 years with that return. Especially since they wouldn’t have any goalies for the future that are ready. Tarasov can maybe be that guy but he can’t stay healthy
Columbus won’t be retaining on Elvis for 4 years with that return. Especially since they wouldn’t have any goalies for the future that are ready. Tarasov can maybe be that guy but he can’t stay healthy
I think it's a fair deal, especially considering it's happening during the draft, and not now. Cap increasing they can afford to retain. Also, the contract is bad with how he is playing! I don't think any team will be willing to ship a 1st for him even with retention, certainly not when the retention is this small. And your point about not having goalie depth - again this is happening at the draft, they can find someone in the off-season if they have to. I think this trade is very fair.
Sharks have Benning, Burroughs, Rutta, Addison, Embersom at RD all who I would start over Ceci, and on top of that they are actively trying to dump some of the older guys as is! Plus in the off-season sharks should be looking for legit top 4 RD not a has been!
Sorry but pass!
i'd do it for a 7th. We could flip Ceci at the deadline
I think it's a fair deal, especially considering it's happening during the draft, and not now. Cap increasing they can afford to retain. Also, the contract is bad with how he is playing! I don't think any team will be willing to ship a 1st for him even with retention, certainly not when the retention is this small. And your point about not having goalie depth - again this is happening at the draft, they can find someone in the off-season if they have to. I think this trade is very fair.
Elvis is playing fine. He has just played behind the worst defense in the league the past 3 years. Taking up a retention slot for 4 years is a big problem and it’s 6 million total. Jackets aren’t worried about 2nd round picks at this point they need quality over quantity pieces. Maybe once they figure out the goalie of the future and need that cap space they will be ready to move on but this deal doesn’t do the jackets much good. He might be overpaid by 500k but not much more
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