My current 2024 rankings

Trevor Connelly, on talent alone, should be top-5 or 10. He is the best skater in this draft and his game resembles Jack Hughes in a lot of respects. The edges, the vision…he just doesn’t play with top linemates to put up crazy numbers.

He is much further down on people’s lists due to an unfortunate social media post a few years ago (and some saying he shouldn’t be drafted at all). But since that mistake, he has done everything right. He owned his mistake, he talks about it, he has done tons of education, community service and has view that he is not done making it right. All it takes is one team to see him as draft-worthy.

@NHLfan10506
Thank you for the reply. I've never heard of any unfortunate post and it's not my bussiness.

I know he is good and I know the team is not as good this season (btw, I think in 2024 someone will select his former teammate, Tanner Adams). But I try not to be emotionally attached to any player. Connelly is either 6ft0 or 6ft1 and weights around 160lbs. Look a photo of his face ( https://stormhockey.com/sports/mhockey/roster/trevor-connelly/13 ). He is skinny and these players are very risky. Either are they top-6 or out of the roster. On the other side can 190lbs players handle all the aspects of hockey game and play tough shifts. I am leaning towards other side, that is to slide Demidov and Catton down on my list.

I can't see Catton falling that far.

The post wasn’t good, but there have been worse. He posted a photo with friends on Snapchat included a swastika made from blocks. The important part is how he has learned from that mistake and how much he matured from that experience. But some believe his punishment should be permanent. Personally, I think the response tells you more about the person. Everyone has regrettable events at age 15. Not everyone learns from them.

He is skinny, but has the frame where a couple of years in NCAA will allow him to bulk up a little (6’0” 180 lbs is good considering how well he moves).

I think he has a chance to be an elite transition player in NHL. If he were at US NTDP (and hadn’t had social media problem) he would probably be viewed higher on these lists. He has been included on US teams recently for tournaments (and I believe he has led each one in scoring). My guess is that he will be top-6 player at U18 this spring.

The point is potential top-6 NHL wingers are relativelly common. You can make a case for many more to make my top-32 (Howe, Ritchie, Gridin, Burrows...) and I can understand that. But if I am GM, I would spend high picks on (1) top-6 centers, (2) top pairing D-men or (3) wingers with the highest scoring potential. Top centers and top D-men are much harder to find, so therefore I give them an edge at the draft table. You can select plenty of decent wingers and bottom-pairing D-men with your lower picks. Overall more complete players should have an advantage against role players. But if Connelly is your guy, I don't have a problem with that at all. Grab him in the top-10, I will span that pick on D-man.

Based on the other rankings it really seems unlikelly. But smaller forwards usually slip down the table and they are relativelly common. I would spend high picks on top centers and top D-men. Wingers are relativelly easy to find with lower picks.

There aren't many centers here and Connelly has played both. Hage, Misa...some of these guys may be wingers as well.

While I agree the hierarchy is C>RD>LD>W...I also know that the most common draft bust is 'center with size'

I agree. GMs are desperate in their need of centers and size brings some adventage to a prospects. Not exactly in the "size" category, but the teams do regret their selection of Patrick, Glass, Andersson (2017), Turcotte (2019) or even Kotkaniemi (2018). At the time they were seen as sure option at the center and that's why GMs reached for them.

I somehow hate to have Lindstrom on my no. 2 position, because his performance is also in part product of being on a good team and I rather wouldn't take him in front of some other guys. But if there is a significant chance 7-8 years down the road he can be NHL top-line center (at 6ft4 or more and at least 220lbs), then I must consider he is worth a higher spot than some smaller, skilled guys. If in redraft 10-15 years in the future he is maybe no. 5 or no. 6, I'm fine with that. It's much harder to trade for a top centers than trading for top wingers.

Sure, Iginla, Hage, Misa, Boisvert, Beaudoin and some others might be wingers. But playing center in juniors brings to a players adventage in front of junior wingers. Centers are more defensively responsible and they usually fit into some AHL/NHL role (often on the wing). If natural winger is not offensivelly productive he often hurts his own team. It's not playing position that holds Connelly lower on my list, it is his "risk-to-reward ratio". Potential reward is (another) skilled NHL top-6 forward in 4-5 years, while due to his frame and style of play he has higher potential risk of suffering brutal injuries and/or not fitting into bottom-6.

Of course he can prove me wrong. But until he proves he has the same offensive potential as Eiserman or Helenius he will not make my top-10.