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Forum: Mock-DraftFeb. 20 at 6:41 a.m.
Thread: 2022 Adjusted NHLe (long description so ignore if you don't want to read)
That has been extremely deep investigation. I would never expect something like this from a Leafs fan ;) The model is useful, but in my opinion beside forward/D-man separation it also lacks component for player's size. The model is useful, but not ultimately perfect (not that there can be ultimate model, teams would sell their families for that).

I'll put a short comment for some (possibly) unexpected names on your list:

Hutson... the offense is undisputible, but will he be able to match the 6ft4 opponents in the NHL? I don't see a huge surprise him being taken that late. When it comes to risk management, he is ultimate boom-or-bust. In general teams also can't have more than 1 small D-man in the lineup and be succesful. Colorado's 2022 roster might be exception to that and they on average still weren't really small (average in the playoffs 6ft1 and 220lbs or so, with the next men in the lineup being Curtis MacDermid). All the other past 10 or so champions were all made of brick wall on the back end, with an average of roughly 6ft3 and 225lbs. Teams might be wise to spend their middle and lower-rounds picks on tough, low-scoring 6ft3, 200 lbs defenders (especially rare big RHDs).
Some Hutson-like overage calibers for 2023 Draft: Sam Court, Maxim Fedotov, Bogdan Konyushkov. All are overagers and therefore somewhat "tested".

Grebenkin... your model might be very useful when searching for overage forwards. Like it or not, for a forwards is their production the most important criteria. If a overage forward is 6ft2 and he scores in KHL/VHL/SHL/NCAA, he has bottom-6 pottential for NHL. The teams might be smart with their high and middle-rounds picks NOT to Draft KHLers/MHLers in their 1st year of eligibility, but do draft them a year later with their 4th-6th round picks. In my opinion that's better risk-management.
Some of the interesting names of similar caliber for 2023 Draft: German Tochilkin, Vadim Moroz, Ruslan Gimbatov... However, there are some exceptions. For example, Tigran Yarulin has decent KHL numbers, but it is painful to watch him in the MHL. He plays on the bottom-6 on a average team, looks disinterested and sucks big time. Therefore, if a player plays 3 leagues and he is good in only 1 of them, it might be an exception to the model. If a player is good in 2 of the 3 leagues, he is legit. Similar might be said for SHL/Allsvenskan/SWE U-20 players.

Bystedt... yes, if over 6ft3 and heavy player is 1PPG in CHL/USHL/SWE U-20, he is worth late 1st/early 2nd round pick. Size matters and this players might also be candidates for center-spot job in the NHL. If that kind of player can serve in the NHL as full-time 3C, occasional 2C Adam Lowry-type, that's a win.
Similar, less known calibers for 2023 Draft: Anton Wahlberg, Danny Nelson, David Edstrom, Jaden Lipinski, Dylan Roobroeck, Sutter Muzzatti, Gleb Veremyev...

Buchelnikov... model predicts he is future potential top-liner in the NHL. But I wouldn't spend more than 5th round pick on him. Here is a game from the 2022 MHL playoffs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-1l54WE5KQ . At 1:16:40 is his season-ending injury (btw, it might be part of a reason why Blues have selected lesser-known Nikita Yevseyev) and then at 2:03:12 he was off the surface with ice bag on his leg. And that was it for his season, quarter-finale or so of the MHL, despite it really wasn't that bad and he was able to walk and doing basically everything off the ice. I definitely wouldn't risk high or middle-rounds pick for that kind of player, especially in their 1st year of Draft eligibility. But tested overagers, I might risk 5th or 6th round pick on that caliber. Candidate for 2023 Draft: KHL-tested Alexander Suvorov.

Engstrom... I have never really understood all the hype around Calle Odelius, while the playoff-production and regular season +/- have indicated that Adam Engstrom was the best D-man on Djurgardens U-20 team. And Engstrom is taller than Odelius. Odelius' regular season numbers were clearly positively impacted by the incredibly strong Djurgardens line (Ohgren, Ostlund, Lekkerimaki). In the playoffs Engstrom was able to raise his performance to the same level as forwards, while Odelius' numbers have droped significantly. Now Engstrom is on the new team and he migh have another „Odelius“ on his team: Tom Willander. Scouts are high on Willander, but he is not dominant neither in the U-20, SHL or in the internationals. So, if 6ft1 or smaller D-man is not the best D-man on his junior team, I generally wouldn't risk any Draft pick on him. For example, Willander is on my DND list.
Example of overlooked Engstrom-type D-man: Justin Kipkie. I don't think he is on anyone's radar. He plays on a bad Victoria team and is on par with Kalem Parker for being 1st-2nd D-man on the team. But Kipkie is much younger, taller and his relative +/- is much better (Parker's absolute +/- is 2nd worst in the WHL). It's just that Kipkie is LHD, while Parker is RHD. That's the only reason I can find why Parker is on NHL's list and Kipkie is not. For comparison, Kipkie should be worth at least 5th round pick and Parker shouldn't.

Nyman... that's an easy one. Nyman came from the same Mestis club as Roby Jarventie. They both were very young on their respective Draft day, they share similar size and their absolute production was basically identical. However, Nyman was a bit bigger and his relative production in the Draft season was even better (Jarventie was 5th scorer on his team, Nyman was 1st). Therefore it was an easy decision to me, Nyman was worth late 1st/early 2nd round pick.
It's harder to find comparable pair to Jarventie-Nyman. Maybe Devin Kaplan-Danny Nelson. Same team, a year appart, similar size, comparable relative and absolute production. But Nelson projects to be even bigger and is younger on his respective team. Therefore Nelson is worth 2nd round pick to me (potential big NHL centers are expensive).

Maggio... his case study is complicated. In his 1st year of Draft eligibility (2020/21) he was teammate with Logan Mailloux on HockeyEttan team. Their production was not far appart (Mailloux' was better), but we really can't compare 6ft3 RD and 5ft10 RW. If not for infamous incident, every team would have Mailloux in their lineup far in front of Maggio. Year or two in the advance, Mailloux is roughly 1PPG player in the OHL and Maggio is much more than that. But who will be able to play in the NHL better? 100% are cards on Mailloux. Sucessfull junior 5ft10 RWs are common, but they rarely make it to the NHL. Maggio is in his D+2 year and he is OHL's leading scorer. In his D+1 year he was good, but for the most part just supporting player for Wyatt Johnston and way below 1PPG player in the playoffs. No wonder he was just 5th round pick. Similar might be said for Matthew Savoie and Conor Geekie, who in the 2022 playoffs were badly outperformed by their teammates (including a year younger Zach Benson). The difference is just the NHL GMs were blindfolded and wanted to believe Savoie and Geekie are the driving force on the team. So I would say Maggio is team's (and league's) leading scorer, but the numbers are showing us better player then reality is.
Islanders are buyers at the TDL. When keep emptying their already small prospect pool they might sell Maggio high. I wouldn't bank on him being NHL star one day, but on the other hand at the moment NYI might sell him as 2nd round pick equivalent.
Similar high-caliber comparison is Gabriel Perreault (as last season Isaac Howard) – team's leading scorer, but the numbers might be lying to us. You might say Dragicevic is another one, but that's also obvious. Less obvious are Koehn Zimmer and Reidly Heidt (beside Chase Wheatcroft and Hudson Thornton) and maybe some Swedes. Otto Steinberg and Theo Lindstein are excellent in the internationals, but on their respective teams (U-20 and SHL) are they for the most part just average players.
Same can be said for Eduard Sale, he is very good against junior opponents and in the internationals, but struggles against adult opponents. His production in CZE-1 is just comparable to Kulich's one and worse than Jiricek's. Similar numbers were scored by Mysak in 2020. On U-20 internationals is Sale not dominant player and that's a red flag for him being extremely high Draft pick. I wouldn't touch him in the top 15, but somebody other probably will.
It,'s early to say, but direct comparison in the lower rounds to Matt Maggio is possibly Nick Lardis. In better club he is scoring like a machine. But a team spending for say 2nd or early 3rd round pick on him, they might regret that later.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 13 at 10:05 a.m.
Thread: Vilardi should be a core piece for Chychrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>All I'm hearing out of MTL is that Hughes wants an overpayment on this guy or that guy. So, I'm skeptical that they would do Edmundson for Durzi 1:1. So, going back to one of your earlier comments about giving up 3 first for an injury-prone Chychrun, I think LA is the only team that should be doing it. They aren't in a win-now mode but adding him is addressing a need, they also have a deep prospect pool so they can afford to overpay as opposed to other teams. They are better off overpaying on Chychrun than Edmundson though. At the end of the day, they can't keep everyone.

Now, if they think Gavrikov or some other defender is a better fit than Chychrun then they should pursue them for that reason rather than a lower price tag.

I think you are absolutely right about moving Vilardi since they don't have too much cap to work with and have raises due in the next two years. So moving at least one piece that is NHL-ready makes sense especially if it saves them from having to trade a current 1st and prospects that they can hold onto a bit longer and use for future moves when they are in their contention window.

Might be worth giving up the current 1st instead of 2024 one and a 3rd, if there could be a Vejmelka and Petersen swap included. I do think Petersen can make a comeback and might even be significantly better than Vejmelka, but the lower cap hit could help LA going forward.</div></div>

I also think Edmundson is worth more than Durzi, probably 1st round pick + 1 more 2nd round pick/equivalent. Durzi is not worth that much and I don't think LAK fans would like to hear that.

Chychrun is a good fit for any team... when healthy. He is in the NHL since the very 1st season after the Draft (2016/17), where he appeared in 68 games. That is his career high. I wouldn't pay 3x1st round equivalents for a player from who I expect 55-60 NHL games in a season.
LAK are one of the softest teams in the league. They only have 1 bigger D-man (Edler) and he is not extremely tough. That's why I think cheaper defensive-defenseman is more rational option than expensive 2-way D-man. Sure, they can overpay. But why would they? They can spend their capital later, this is not the last season of the game.

Petersen's value is at the moment strongly in the red numbers. In the 2022/23 season LAK shouldn't trade him, they can afford to carry his contract and have him in the AHL.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 13 at 3:09 a.m.
Thread: Vilardi should be a core piece for Chychrun
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>If you want Vilardi, you don't also get Turcotte and a 1st. Guys like Turcotte, Spence, Grans, etc. have less value because they are entirely potential, and have yet to find success in the NHL. Vilardi has found that success and is having a breakout year. Like Chychrun, he is also signed to an incredibly team-friendly contract considering the production he brings.

So I can see Vilardi + Turcotte or Vilardi + 1st for Chychrun. You don't get both assets.</div></div>

I disagree. LAK are not the only team on Chychrun. Value-wise I would rather say LAK might add 2023 3rd or 4th round pick into equation. Let's for beginning just keep it simple with 4 pieces...

So Vilardi+Turcotte is a no from ARI. Vilardi + 1st is also no. ARI wants bigger pieces and the LAK are far from being the only team targeting their biggest TDL piece. GMs must say to fans and owners "look what I got back".
LAK can cosider it a W if they would be able to keep their 2023 1st round pick in a similar trade.
Forum: Mock-DraftDec. 30, 2022 at 2:42 p.m.
Thread: 2023 early thoughts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ColonelX</b></div><div>Love me some Dragicevic but things are starting to get out of hands, Ty Smith was a top scorer in his draft year as were Valimaki and Jake Bean. Yes Drag can score points but he also gets scored a lot against, feel like top 5 you better be a <em>great </em>all around defender or an <em>elite </em>offensive one to warrant this draft capita.</div></div>

Neither of these was the best scorer on their respective team, let alone in the WHL. If D-man is leading scorer on a team, he is their best offensive player, there is no way around.
Dragicevic will also be taller than others mentioned, so there is something to work with - remember Korchinski from the past Draft, as 6ft3 he was very interesting to GMs. It all comes to Drag's skating and the opinion if it can be improved. It only takes one GM to pull a trigger.
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 23, 2022 at 7:35 p.m.
Thread: Subjective choice for a team with the best execution at the Draft: Dallas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>There’s nothing terrible about the pick don’t get me wrong I just feel like this pick aims towards the future and Dallas is in win now mode. I think Bichsel is a great prospect but he’s not a full Klingberg replacement I think he could be that but I just don’t see it yet</div></div>

I know you have good intentions. That's the point, it's desirable to have diverse opinions. How would we otherwise be able to learn anything new if we would all think the same way?

Win now? Yes and no. Their roster is old, but they do draft smart (2021: Johnston!!!, Stankoven). They try to be competitive over the longer term. That might mean they could be average over a long stretch of time, but that's another story. I don't think they try to rush their prospects. And if we switch back again to 2022 Draft: is at no. 18 there any player who can help them immediately? Ohgren? Gaucher? Mesar? Kulich? Lambert? I doubt. Maybe 5 NHL games with 5-8 minutes/game on the 4th line, but that doesn't mean anything.

So I would say if Dallas would want to win a Cup now, would they trade away their 2022 1st round pick (like some other teams) and possibly also their 2023 1st round pick. So far it look they are OK with mediocrity.
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 23, 2022 at 3:17 p.m.
Thread: Subjective choice for a team with the best execution at the Draft: Dallas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>IconicHawk</b></div><div>Dallas reached for Bichsel in my opinion he wasn’t a terrible pick but I feel like he’s more of a project then most other reach in the first round</div></div>

I would be surprised if nobody would mention that ;)

Players selected behind Bichsel were Ohgren, Miroshnichenko, Pickering, Gaucher, Snuggerud, Yurov, Rinzel, Mesar... I would also select Bichsel at no. 18.

One might say Miroshnichenko (or Yurov) has higher upside, but also much higher risk. Ohgren, Gaucher and Snuggerud are all safe picks with average upside.

If speaking about D-men, I am taking Bichsel in front of Pickering, Rinzel, Lamouroux and others. He is tested against men (including his hitting) and I like his Combine results. Pickering, Rinzel and Lamouroux each has their share of struggles in juniors. So it relatively easy pick for me. If I am on the clock, I also select Bichsel at no. 18.

It's the nature of the game, D-men are more important. Regular roster has 12F and 6D. D-men play more minutes and their mistakes are devastating. You can afford to play with a few suspicious forwards, but not with a suspicious D-men. That's why on the Draft day GMs prefer D-men in front of forwards of comparable value. Fans would also say Nemec (no. 2), Jiricek (no. 6), Korchinski (no. 7), Mintyukov (no. 10), Mateychuk (no.12), Pickering (no. 21), Rinzel (no. 25) and others are all reaches in front of some XYZ forwards. GMs would call it fair value, fans would call it reaches/overpayments. I am on the GMs side, playoffs history speaks you mostly win with defense and goaltending.
Forum: Mock-DraftJul. 7, 2022 at 10:36 a.m.
Thread: Predictive Mock
You really don't need to apologize for anything. You don't own us anything.
All mocks are going to be wrong, beside the one with 225 correct picks ;) And cheese is also aged milk.

You've been more excited than me about the quality of the class. A few more teams are trying to trade their high 1st round pick, which for me is additional indication of worse quality. But at the end it doesn't matter. The point is to draft smart and for the most part to recognize BPA. Quality over quantity.
Predicting the mock, when the final draft order of the teams selecting high, adds to unpredictability.

My bold prediction is Savoie will fall out to range 10-15 and Lambert will be selected with no. 6 or no. 7, depends of the (potential) trades yet to be made and the new owners of the respective pick(s). Somebody will try to reach for him. He is very risky pick, but potential reward will attract some GMs. I also think Mintyukov and Korchinski could both be selected in top10, while I expect Yurov to still be available in the bottom third of the 1st round.
Forum: NHL TradesJul. 2, 2022 at 1:25 a.m.
Thread: (MIN/LAK) - Fiala for Faber
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>tkecanuck341</b></div><div>1. It's useless to argue against stupid trade proposals like Bjornfot for Chychrun 1-for-1, because there's no way Arizona would ever go for that. The point of saying that the Kings won't trade Bjornfot is because he's worth more to the Kings than his trade value. If Arizona offered that 1-for-1 deal or greatly inflated Bjornfot's trade value, then the Kings would go for that in a second. However, given the fact that Bjornfot and Durzi/Spence are all right around the same trade value right now, the Kings wouldn't be keen on trading away Bjornfot if a RHD could fill in for the same value.

2. I commented on pretty much every ACGM last summer involving Clague saying that if a team just waited, they could probably get him for free off waivers. However, at one point, the Kings were very high on Kale Clague. If you remember, LA turned down a deal for Pacioretty because Montreal wanted Clague, and LA wouldn't give him up. There were reported trades with Toronto that were killed prior to the Muzzin deal because LA wasn't willing to give up Clague. So if you're criticizing Kings fans for turning down Clague trades, then you have to criticize Rob Blake for it as well, because he turned down several.

3. The desire to keep Faber over Grans has nothing to do with the overall value of the prospect, but rather the defensive role that each guy plays. Clarke, Durzi, Spence, Walker, and Grans are all offense-first prospects. Faber was the only defense-first prospect in the organization. If anything, Grans had higher trade value than Faber, so he not only would have a greater value in a trade, but was more expendable because the Kings already have several offensive RHD prospects that fill that role. If the Kings were trading with any team other than Minnesota, then Faber is likely still a Kings prospect. However, as several sources have reported, Minnesota specifically asked for Faber and the Kings were willing to oblige because they felt they were getting better than fair value out of him. However, the biggest winner of this trade is Matt Roy, because the heir apparent to the shutdown RHD position is now no longer in the organization.

4. As discussed above, Faber's departure made Roy's potential departure even less likely than it was before. Similar to what I said about Bjornfot and Faber above, if a team comes in and is willing to pay significantly over fair value in a return for Roy, than the Kings would obviously consider it. If Toronto called up Blake and said that they want to do a Roy for Nylander 1-for-1 trade, then Roy is as good as gone. However, in a fair value trade, Roy is worth more to the Kings than he is for whatever he could possibly return.</div></div>

Thank you for your deep explanation.

I have also rather been picking fan community than one specific person. In fact fan communities of the other teams are pretty much the same. It is all about the biases. Fans of all franchises are masters of overvaluing their prospects and young roster players. That's why I rarely participate in ACGM.

1. If ARI would prefer to give back Bjornfot as their young LHD downgrade, do it. Both teams are relatively thin on LD and Bjornfot is young roster player who also makes sense for ARI. He is roster player... and right now not much more than that. At the best he is 6th D-man on a team. Surprisingly (in part due to injuries) he is 1st on a D-squad with 70GP, but only 11th of 14 players in TOI (16:46). He is expandable. The fact he is former (recent) 1st round pick also helps with his trade value, despite it is not related to his performance on ice.

2. I don't know the names of the fans and it doesn't matter. I also don't put much attention to the media reports, it is just too much noise and artificial stories. I am paying attentions on the official deals. It was a mistake if LAK were that high on him. It wouldn't be the first time (Forbort?), but we are all people and we do mistakes. Waiving Clague was a mistake, period. With, at the time, 11GP and 5P it looked obvious to me somebody would take him. But also expecting unreal returns for not-that-young-anymore and unproved player is childish, no matter if that's GM or ACGM. The opposite case should be Durzi. He has shown he can be fill-in as team's 1st D-man on both end of the ice, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. His trading value should be high, despite (or because of) it was his rookie season. Which I don't think should mean he is untouchable. If the right deal comes by he should be available, but that's another story.

3. and 4. I know Faber and Roy are defensively-oriented. But on the 1st team there are roster spots for 3 healthy RHDs, potentially more if LHDs are injured. At first, defense is easier to learn than offense. At second, dividing D-men on offensive ones and defensive ones diminishes the impact of the players that can do both. Doughty can defend and Durzi has shown he can also. Assuming Durzi signs an extension, these are already 2 complete roster players for 3-men RHD position. And at third, in comparison to Faber, Grans' height can't be learnt. Teams need some size on the back end and fans often don't want to understand that. That's why smaller D-men are easier to acquire and therefore cheaper. I don't expect Spence to be good defensively, he might be too small and/or too scared , but Grans can be.
So I would say LAK can trade 2 of the Walker, Roy, Spence, Grans, Durzi. They CAN, they don't NEED to. Do you imagine either Walker or Roy would sign extensions with the LAK in next 2 years? I don't. Well, maybe Roy can, if Durzi gets traded prior to the Matt's extension, but that is less likely. Roy is also expandable, not just Walker. I would imagine with his LTIR history Walker's value is only mid-round pick. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Roy gets traded for average return and Walker starts the season with LAK.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 30, 2022 at 12:37 a.m.
Thread: (MIN/LAK) - Fiala for Faber
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SevenLeg</b></div><div>Wasn't Faber 100% untouchable? Not a knock on anyone, just curious about what those Kings fans think of the deal.</div></div>

Few LAK ACGMs biases:

- I doubt LAK fans would make 1:1 trade Bjornfot:Chychrun, because they "need another LD, not just upgrade". Bjornfot is not acceptable trading piece in any trade
- MTL got Kale Clague for free. LAK fans are probably still refusing his trades for late 1st round pick and see him as their future on the blue line
- Faber/Grans dilemma. LAK ACGMS would trade away Grans (LAK's only bigger D-prospect) for a bag of pucks. On the other hand, for some to LAK ACGM's known reason, should Faber be untouchable. But think for a second, they play the same position and they were both 2020 Draft picks. Grans was higher pick than Faber. There are odds LAK's management might be higher on Grans than on Faber ;) And if rival fans want to strip away Grans and not Faber, there must be something they don't see on Swede
- who is next on the block? Kings fans are saying Roy is untouchable ("he is the only LAK D-man who can play defense". Who's Doughty?). That's a kiss of death, Roy won't last for long in LA
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 28, 2022 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: Minnesota Wild Draft Board
I completely agree with team needs.

1st round pick could also be Snuggerud. He is RW, local kid and should be available at no. 24. Local kid is also Chesley, who is RD. MIN used to be locally oriented and therefore it is possible either of the two could be selected. But Chesley might not be available anymore. Many regard him as 3rd best RD in the class. Kasper shouldn't be available at this spot. Too bad, he would adapt well on a team with fellow Austrian Rossi.

In 2nd round they could move up for Gaucher, if he would be available around no. 40. As right-shot C he would address a positional hole. He is also one of more physically matured players. Around Kaprizov's signing it was rumored that players and team management are getting impatient and want to compete for a cup as soon as possible.

Rinzel is also interesting as local kid. I would be just more confident to take him with no. 56 pick. He is committed to University of Minnesota in 2023/24, which is late.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 28, 2022 at 12:27 p.m.
Thread: Los Angeles Kings Draft Board
In fact they are thin on LHD on any level (NHL, AHL, juniors). Nousiainen is fresh blood to AHL, but he is not expected to become superstar. Kirsanov might be decent piece someday, but he will turn 20 in September and is under contract for another year. Meehan is 21 and nothing very special in NCAA. Doyle is one of LAK's rare draft misses, despite being 6th round selection.

LAK has been trying to trade their 1st round pick as part of a trade for roster player for several months. If they are not able to make a trade, Mintyukov should be their 1st target and they might be willing to trade up a couple of spots for him (both NSH and DAL could be targeting D-men). He is on the older side and more mature than majority of his peers. LAK are trying to end their retool and make a playoff run until Kopitar and Quick are still active. Mintyukov helps with that timing component, because he should be 1st NHL-ready LHD of the class.
Second target for 1st round pick could be Bichsel. He is under contract for another year in SHL, but has experience against men and will continue with hard battles in Sweden. Mateychuk and Korchinski are young and are expected to play at least another season in WHL, so they shouldn't be as high on LAK list.
Other possibilities for 1st round pick should be players with the highest pure offensive upside. That includes Lambert and Russians.

I expect LAK to select (or trade for) more than 1 LHD. Mateychuk, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Pickering and Bichsel shouldn't be available anymore late in 2nd round, so next target should be Duda, who was excellent in MHL playoffs. At the moment he is not signed in Russia and in theory can be available anytime. On the other hand are Forsmark and Odelius under contract for 2 more seasons and therefore less suitable. Other LHD would be a reach at this spot. If Duda is not available, winger makes sense. It can be either winger with high offensive upside or power-forward. Nyman or Schaefer could be available. Lorenz is less suitable, he is going to college. His father went there for full 4 years, which gives me second thoughts. LAK could very well go for Dolzhenkov in 2nd round as they did in 2021 with Helenius.

3rd round selection can be the one they would select a goalie. Other candidates could be CHL LHDs (if they don't have 2 already). If they have 2 LHDs already and are not satisfied with goalies available, Kaplan would make some sense. There are several bigger forwards in the draft, but not many RWs of that kind. Kaplan will go relatively early.

4th round can be CHL forward. Lots of their current and former players are linked to Owen Sound (Simmonds, Dudas, Lewis, Richardson, Sekera, MacDermid, Middleton, Durzi, Phillips). I don't expect Petrovsky to be available there, but Guindon could be (as Bryant should be at their last selection). Otherwise, address your G/LHD needs.

5th and 6th round... they should add one heavier or strictly power-forward in the draft. If they are without one until now, Parker Bell, Patrik Juhola, Mikko Matikka and Santeri Sulku could be still available. Possibilities are also Yakupov, Hauser and Kopecky. Interesting pick would be Frederic Brunet, who is D/F (from the same franchise than Samuel Morin, now retired PHI's D/F). One of the picks could be used for another goalies. Silverstein could be candidate, he is native to LA-suburb; local players are usually helpful to connect with fans.

I expect LAK to draft (or draft + trade pick for) 2F, 3D, 1G or 2F, 2D, 2G combination. They really need just final pieces, especially they are almost set up front. Their forward pool is numerous and talented, but not very diverse. So I do expect another power-forward. If they would select 2 goalies, one could/should be overager.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 28, 2022 at 1:46 a.m.
Thread: Final Draft Rankings
That's very unique rankings I really like.


Some interesting names almost nobody knows. Russian and Belorussian class is silently being strong (except for center position, as usually).


I am also high on Tochilkin, but not for 3rd round. I like how in VHL he is willing to go into the dirty areas behind and in front of the net. He is one of the oldest 1st time eligible players, so his production could be taken with a grain of salt in comparison to younger prospects.

Hildeby in 4th round looks high to me. Beside being triple-overager is he also under contract for the next 2 seasons.

Yevseyev is worth middle-to-late-rounds pick. I would describe his playing style as Canadian one. He is not very big, but can play hard. He is also the one who in playoffs knocked Buchelnikov out.

Yapparov is a bit high for my taste. He is coming from a strong team, so take his production with some caution.

I don't think Tsulygin gets drafted, but I like him. His numbers don't jump off the chart and he is on the lighter side, especially for a D-man. But he does a bit of everything, blocks shots, generates some offense etc. His father also has some NHL experience, which can only be advantage. He was also on the 4th pairing of ideal MHL team, according to MHL journalist. I doubt I've ever seen Tsulygin on anyone's rankings before and he has below 700 views on eliteprospects. If you know him, you've done your homework ;)

Engstrom is going to Rogle system. He could get more non-standard playing time there. Djurgardens has been prefering Odelius in front of him. Odelius is faster, But Engstrom is taller and plays safer.

Ty Young is 1B option behind Brennan. They share almost identical stats, but Young is almost a year younger. That's being overlooked both in terms of Brennan than in terms of Young.

Juhola at late 6th round would bring a lots of value. His Mestis sample size is very small, but it looks good.

Nick Malik could be drafted much earlier, many teams need goalies. He is double-overager with a contract for only one more season. I wouldn't be surprised if someone would reach for him in 4th round. If he is available in 7th round, take him.

VHL is not very well scouted. That's why Vinogradov wasn't drafted in 2021 and he might not be drafted again this season.

There are better options than Arefyev. I personally would have Berezhnoy (and few others, Berezhnoy example of another big overager) in front of him.

At this stage I wouldn't waste pick on Yegorov. He wasn't able to make playoff team.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 27, 2022 at 1:09 p.m.
Thread: Florida Panthers Draft Board
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BruinsFan35</b></div><div>If I’m being honest, the Panthers should probably look to take a defenseman or left winger over a goalie with their third round pick. But, they’ll need a backup for Knight, and Brennan is the strongest option that should be available to them. He’s got pro size, and has a lot of high end attributes that makes me believe he could be a #1 goalie in the future. But, for the Panthers, Brennan would be an elite backup behind one of the brightest young goalies in the league.</div></div>

I agree.

I would say they need forwards the most, especially pure offensive talents.
Of their RHD prospects is Michael Benning showing some decent offensive upside, but he is small. Other RHD prospect is Kasper Puutio, he is also below 6ft tall. One of them could be trading piece, so one bigger RHD is something they don't have yet.
Goalie Mack Guzda is 21. His OHL career is over, he should go to AHL/ECHL. Gerasimyuk will turn 19 in August. He is coming from SKA system, which is goalie-factory. So FLO can say they have something at the position, at least relative to other positions they need to address.

So I would say:

3rd and 4 th round... Buchelnikov makes a lots of sense, maybe also Neuchev (FLO likes to draft Russians). CHL overagers are also candidates; Logan Morrison, Tucker Robertson, Kyle Jackson.

5th or 6 th round... another RHD in either of the picks. Leddy should be available, possibly also Spacek, Salin, Anderson, Garett Brown, Weir, Gavin White, Komarov...

6th or 7th round... another goalie in either of the picks. Sergei Ivanov is also from SKA system (as Gerasimyuk). But he is on the smaller side which is not something FLO looks to like. On the other hand is slightly taller Alexander Smolin coming from Metallurg Magnitogorsk's system, same as Bobrovski. Smolin could be available late in 7th round. If they are without new goalie and neither of them is available at no. 221, the other candidates are Arefyev, Berezhnoy, possibly even Murashov. NA candidates could be Emett Croteau, Muszelik, Kolby Hay (Cossa's backup), Ty Young (1B option behind Brennan, but almost year younger). Wild card goalie at this spot would be Charles-Edward Gravel, who is coming from Blainville-Boisbrand Armada, same as former FLO goalie Samuel Montembeault.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 23, 2022 at 12:01 p.m.
Thread: Edmonton Oliers Draft Board
I agree, defense, defense, defense.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>christianyog</b></div><div>Edmonton should definitely target one of the overaged goalies like Malik, Brochu, Whitehead in the later rounds.

Could I have an explanation for Murashov?</div></div>

For overage goalie I have decent candidate (not in games that I watched, but it was too small sample size): Zakhar Vinogradov. He is 6ft2, plays in VHL, which is not well scouted. He will turn 20 in autumn and is under contract until 2023/24. He plays positional style, where reading the flow of the play has advantage before athleticism. As mentioned, he wasn't outstanding in games that I watched, just good enough to win. But VHL is league of grown men, nothing should be taken for granted. And his SV% shows he "must" be good. I think he wasn't selected last season, because VHL is not well scouted. Imagine, CAR selected in 7th round goalie from MHL who has also had small sample size (Naumov)... but that guy hasn't played a game this season. In fact he wasn't even good in his 9 games last season. If Vinogradov would be playing MHL or KHL, someone would notice him.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 23, 2022 at 11:46 a.m.
Thread: Detroit Red Wings Draft Board
DET is the most thin on centers of all kind. Another scoring wing could also help, but not as much as centers. And I don't see DET being super-high on another LD. They have several of them in pipeline already (Edvinsson, Wallinder, Johansson, Viro, Sebrango, Buium, McIsaac). I guess they could select exclusively defensive D-man, but majority of the guys projects as NHL players. Roster spots are limited. On the other hand are their RDs already in the NHL. Tuomisto is not in NHL, he is 21 and at RD position might be described as the only prospect with chances to become NHL-er. I would be surprised if DET wouldn't select another NHL-projectable RHD in 2nd or 3rd round.

So for 1st round I agree on BPA forward. Kemell, Lambert, Kasper, Nazar, Russians etc., almost anybody makes sense.
1st pick in 2nd round: center, preferebly big one (Gaucher, Bystedt). If both are gone, BPA big RHD.
2nd pick in 2nd round: probably big RHD. If they already have one, another C makes sense (Goyette, Kulich, Beck, Hughes...)
3rd round and lower: BPAs. DET love Swedish Frolunda team (Persson, Ratkovic Berndtsson, Milosevic). In OHL they like Guelph's players (Bertuzzi, Fabri, Smith, Suter). I guess Yzerman is not as huge fan of a program as former GM Holland, but he traded for Suter anyway. So selecting Zhilkin, Poitras, Karabela or Buchinger in 3rd round and lower would not surprise me.
Forum: Mock-DraftJun. 21, 2022 at 12:46 p.m.
Thread: Columbus Blue Jackets Draft Guide
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Civil_Eng_PE</b></div><div>I see, you are ignoring (maybe not ignoring, I may not know what the term "prospect" encompasses) Sillinger, K. Johnson, Chinakhov, and Boqvist who all have potential to be top 6 forwards (boqvist top 4 D-man) and are younger than Marchenko and almost all other players you listed. They are just already with the main team. I agree none of those players you listed will be top 6 or top 4 d-man but Columbus just pushed all their young players to the main squad cause they knew they weren't a playoff team. CBJ isn't a team like LA/Anaheim/Montreal who sent their young players back to the AHL to not burn and ELC year so idk if those players like Mctavish or Turcotte count as prospects, because if they do then Kent/Sillinger/Chinakhov can as well. CBJ had more players 21 and under on their main squad than most other teams to end the season.

Also I appreciate the discussion. CBJ's AHL team sucks and most players wont make the main squad minus maybe foudy would be a 4th line grinder but a good one hopefully. and maybe a bottom paring d-men or 2.</div></div>

I forgot about Johnson, he is prospect. On the other hand, Sillinger, Chinakhov and Boqvist are young roster players. It might seem like a lot, but it's really not.

In non-covid years teams need around 30 players who are capable to play in NHL. Injuries are common. That would mean 20-25 older players and 5-10 prospects (who are capable to jump in). I would say on average team should raise 3 new roster players every year. Not necesserely top-6 Fs and top-4 D-men, that would be unreal, but at least players who can play at least 10 minutes per night on their own. After some age, let's say 30, number of players from draft class begin to quickly fall down. By the age of 35 usually there are way less than 10 players from draft class still active. So you can't count on players to play on average 10 seasons (that would be on average up to 820 GP). In fact, 10 seasons per player is rather exception than rule. But I will say franchise needs 30 players per season and (for easier calculation) they play 10 seasons on average. 30:10= 3. On average teams need 3 new faces every season. 2 is not much, 3 is enough. Because, to be fair, drafting is not the only way to get new people. There is also UFA signing, including NCAA and European players. But young players have another advantage, they are cheap (ELC) and waivers-exempt.

To say it differently, CBJ's problem is not bad scouting or development. CBJ is paying price for past effort to jump over first round in the playoffs. Look at 2019 draft, CBJ ended with 3 new prospects, none before 4th round. Over the past several years they have had below-average number of draft picks and below-average position of first selection in the draft. These things usually have to be paid in arrears. 2021 draft was good starting point for revitalization, but it takes more than that.