Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld
If nemec is worth 4 1sts then mcdavid is worth 15 1sts
If mercer is worth 3 1sts then mcdavid is worth 30 1sts
A players trade value is not directly correlated with ability
Connor McDavid will make 37.5 million dollars over the next 3 years then he will be a UFA
Simon Nemec will make 3 million dollars, then let's assume a 6 mill x4 year bridge extension to take him to UFA
Mercer will make 1 mill this year, then let's assume a 4x4 extension that will walk him to UFA (now usually RFAs get 8 which adds even more value but I digress, since we don't officially have control in those years)
Mercer+Nemec will make an estimated 44 million dollars combined for 12 years of team control.
I'm going to put McDavid and value him at an exaggerated 25 million/year market value. That would be 75 mill, or 37.5 mill in surplus value.
To provide that surplus value that would be 81.5 million dollars/12 years for the 2. Or about 6.8 million
Let's look at what you can buy without giving up draft capital for 6.8 mill AAV. (so we're looking at free agents who left to join a new team in UFA)
You can buy a Nazem Kadri at 7 mill. I'd think I'd take the bet on these guys through their early mid/20s over the bet on kadri from age 32-39
You can buy a nice 1 year of John Klingberg.
Maybe Alex Killorn?
Or Ondrej Palat?
Or a severson for 6.25 mill?
I think I'd bet on Mercer and Nemec to be better options than the alternatives.
Cap space rules.
Now I would call McDavid in UFA if I had the cap space and offer him the full 20% cap if I was in a position to do so. Should be about 20 mill AAV at the time when he hits UFA or so?