I’ve wanted to know where does the current Habs roster projects compared to the past Stanley Cup winners, using The Athletic's Stanley Cup Checklist as a reference point.
For those who are not familiar with this checklist, it offers team-to-team comparison by scoring each player on a tier-based scale. These tiers are:
An elite first-line center that’s among the very best players in the world
An elite first-line winger to support the elite center
A top-line center to play behind the elite center
Two other top-line wingers on each of the top two lines
Two more top-six forwards for depth in the middle six
An elite No. 1 defenseman
A second No. 1 defenseman to play behind him
A top-pairing defenseman to help anchor a strong second pair with the No. 2
Another top-pairing caliber defender to crush soft minutes on the third pair
A top-10 caliber starting goaltender
It uses a scoring scheme of Gold/Black/Gray/Red checkmarks, but I've replaced it with a scoring scale to be able to crunch some numbers: +2 for a gold checkmark, +1 for a black, 0 for a gray and -1 point for a red.
Using this scheme, here's the combined score of the 2010-2022 Stanley Cup champions (number of gold/black/gray/red checkmarks):
2010 CHI +15 (7/3/0/2)
2011 BOS +1 (1/3/3/4)
2012 LAK +2 (2/3/2/5)
2013 CHI +16 (8/1/2/1)
2014 LAK +8 (2/5/4/1)
2015 CHI -1 (0/3/5/4)
2016 PIT +19 (7/5/0/0)
2017 PIT +11 (3/4/3/2)
2018 WAS +5 (1/5/4/2)
2019 STL +12 (4/4/4/0)
2020 TBL +12 (4/5/2/1)
2021 TBL +10 (3/5/3/1)
2022 COL +19 (9/2/0/1)
From this data set, we can see that:
- All teams that repeated had a score of +12 or above – the lone exception being the 2012 LAK, but they were riding a hot goalie
- All teams that had a score of +12 or above repeated – the lone exception being the 2019 STL Blues, but they lost their Elite D in the offseason
- Conversely, all teams that repeated did not repeat if the last roster edition to win the Cup had a score under +12
We can therefore conclude that, to be in “perennial contender” territory, a team has to maintain a combined score of +12 or above.
Now, I’ve applied this model to the actual core of Habs players aged 25 and under: Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Caufield, Dach, Newhook, Roy, Beck/Mesar, Guhle, Hutson, Reinbacher, Xehkaj/Struble/Harris and Fowler. For reference, this core has an actual estimated combined score of -7.
I’ve ran some simulations, and came to the following conclusions:
- If the development curve of 50% of these players trend in the right direction, the combined score jumps to +1
- If the development curve of all players trend in the right direction, the combined score jumps to +5
- If the Habs add one Elite player w/o losing any of the aforementioned core players (that is, via free agency or as a result of the draft), with development factored in, the combined score can reach +6 to +10
- If the Habs add 2 Elite players, with development factored in, the combined score can reach +12 to +15
So, lets be realistic: unless all current core players reach their full potential AND GMKH creates 2 elite players out of thin air, the Habs won’t be considered a perennial contender any time soon.
Which feels about right, right?
So I'd say that for the foreseeable future, the franchise shouldn't target lateral moves (e.g. Zegras for Reinbacher), it should not spend any capital on a non-Elite asset (e.g. Dubois) and it should only entertain trade ideas where draft capital/non-core players are packaged together in a "quantity for quality" type of trade.
That's a heck of an assessment and I think you nailed it tbh. We're currently projecting to be "good" but nothing Earth shattering, probably rank 10th-16th ish perennially if we don't get some elite talent going forward (factoring in the development you've suggested).
Wow, love this. Really good job getting all this info together and making it easy to comprehend. Perfectly illustrates how far Montreal is from contention despite what so many fans want, building a perennial contender takes time and in order to do it right we need to suck for a few more years in order to balance out the prospect development curve (More Elite players we can get from the draft = less reliance on players like Mesar, Beck, Fowler, etc hitting their ceiling.)
You lost me with the colors but i'll focus on this:
"unless all current core players reach their full potential AND GMKH creates 2 elite players out of thin air, the Habs won’t be considered a perennial contender any time soon"
My eye analysis is similar: To become contenders, Gorton needs to draft a top 6 center next summer (meaning Dach is better suited as 1st line winger IMO) and Hughes needs to get a big UFA top 6 winger eventually when the team will be ready, a la Panarin if you will.
Some say adding an offensive 1st pair RHD is essential. I believe a Ghule-Reinbacher duo will produce enough, plus Hutson/Xhekaj as PP specialists.
That being said there's nothing we can do about "reaching full potential" to become "perennial contenders", it is in the hands of the humans on the ice to get the job done.
Well, I don't know. So many things could go one way or another... My idea of what the blueprint should be is focus ALL roster building decisions on adding elite talent. This can be achieved by internal growth, i.e. giving the coaching staff a mandate to put the emphasis on player development (what GMKH is already doing), by leveraging cap space/draft capital/non core players for higher prized assets (what he's also doing), or by additions through the FA market, although truly succesful FA signings seldomly happen, and carry considerable risk due to bidding wars. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that 15% of the cap is tied up until 2027 on 2 declining wingers, hampering the team's chances to compete before then.
There's nothing more to do for now but wait. Its like you're sitting at a poker table and were handed a 2 and a 3. You've got a chance for a suit, but you have to wait for the next cards to get flipped before you can decide on anything.
Well, I don't know. So many things could go one way or another... My idea of what the blueprint should be is focus ALL roster building decisions on adding elite talent. This can be achieved by internal growth, i.e. giving the coaching staff a mandate to put the emphasis on player development (what GMKH is already doing), by leveraging cap space/draft capital/non core players for higher prized assets (what he's also doing), or by additions through the FA market, although truly succesful FA signings seldomly happen, and carry considerable risk due to bidding wars. Plus, you can't ignore the fact that 15% of the cap is tied up until 2027 on 2 declining wingers, hampering the team's chances to compete before then.
There's nothing more to do for now but wait. Its like you're sitting at a poker table and were handed a 2 and a 3. You've got a chance for a suit, but you have to wait for the next cards to get flipped before you can decide on anything.
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