Bridge Deal

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: CD282

Team: 2017-18 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 22, 2017

Published: Jul. 22, 2017

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I honestly don't see why Draisaitl should get more than Pastrnak at this point. Both played on the right wing on their teams top line with their team's most skilled players and put up similar numbers. And yet, people are talking about how Edmonton should rush to sign Leon for $8MM+ long term, on the basis that he'll provide a strong 1-2 punch at center for many year to come... without any actual evidence that he can play the position at an elite level in the NHL.

According to The Hockey News: "... giving the Oilers an incredible one-two punch down the middle... Draisaitl could be worth a boatload on his new deal, especially after McDavid signed an eight-year, $100-million contract. Draisaitl won’t command near the same amount, but don’t be surprised if he enters the $8-million range on a new deal."

And yet, according to the same source, Pastrnak has "... produced at a rate similar to the other top stars in Boston, so it seems reasonable he could command near the $6-million mark per year on his new deal. The trouble for Pastrnak is that he has no real bargaining chips. He’s locked in as an RFA, particularly as one without arbitration rights." No mention of the fact that Draisaitl is in the exact same situation! Leon is locked in as an RFA without arbitration rights - doesn't this mean he has "no real bargaining chips"?? So why give him over $8MM long term while Pastrnak is only worth "nearly $6MM"?

My opinion is that until Draisaitl proves that he is able to drive his own line against tough opposition away from McDavid, he shouldn't get paid like the superstar most think he'll turn out to be. Remember when Edmonton handed out premature long-term / big-money contracts to young players who hadn't proven able to sustain their high level of play? Yeah, and look how that turned out.

I'm going to bridge him. He isn't as skilled as Nikita Kucherov, but he is bigger and can play a heavier game. And I'm hoping he can carry the #2 line as a center, so I'll pay him more than Yzerman is paying Kucherov.

As for the Detroit trade, Green isn't necessary to the success of the Oilers but I think it gives their defense corps an interesting look. Markov (UFA) and Green are both experienced, stable (Green less so) offensively-minded veterans who should be able to give the young forwards more freedom to create offense. I noticed that Detroit doesn't have any great goaltending prospects who are ~2-years from NHL (they have their starter under contract for 2 more years), so I thought that Dylan Wells would be someone that they'd be interested in. A-level prospect + pick deal also gives them cap relief - I realize that Green isn't one of their "bad contract" problems, but $3MM over cap for a non-playoff team is ridiculous and it's high time they started doing something about it.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Draisaitl, Leon		1	$5,500,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Yamamoto, Kailer		3	$925,000
Markov, Andrei		1	$5,000,000

Trades

EDM

Green, Mike

DET

Wells, Dylan
2018 2nd round pick (EDM)

Buyouts

Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
Lauri Korpikoski: $1,000,000

Buried

Mark Fayne: $2,600,000 ($3,625,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2018
2019
2020

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$75,000,000	$66,496,998	$825,000	$7,525,000	$8,503,002

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Maroon, Patrick $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor $925,000$925,000 ($2,850,000$3M) C UFA - 1	Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 4
Lucic, Milan $5,250,000$5,250,000 LW, RW NMC UFA - 6	Draisaitl, Leon $5,500,000$5,500,000 C, LW UFA - 8	Slepyshev, Anton $925,000$925,000 ($600,000$600K) LW, RW RFA - 1
Jokinen, Jussi $1,100,000$1,100,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Strome, Ryan $2,500,000$2,500,000 RW, C UFA - 1	Puljujärvi, Jesse $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) RW UFA - 2
Caggiula, Drake $925,000$925,000 ($425,000$425K) LW, RW UFA - 1	Letestu, Mark $1,800,000$1,800,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Kassian, Zack $1,950,000$1,950,000 RW UFA - 3
Khaira, Jujhar $675,000$675,000 LW, C UFA - 2		Pakarinen, Iiro $725,000$725,000 RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD UFA - 6	Larsson, Adam $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 4	Talbot, Cam $4,166,666$4,166,666 G NMC UFA - 2
Markov, Andrei $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA	Benning, Matthew $925,000$925,000 ($300,000$300K) RD UFA - 1	Brossoit, Laurent $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
Nurse, Darnell $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) LD UFA - 1	Green, Mike $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD NTC UFA - 1
Russell, Kris $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD/RD NMC UFA - 4

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Sekera, Andrej $5,500,000$5,500,000 LD/RD NMC UFA - 4

Jul. 22, 2017 at 10:48 a.m.

ComYog

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 641

Likes: 111

He isnt gonna sign for 3 years at 5.5, maybe 1 year.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:06 a.m.

grovercleveland

Banned

Joined: Apr. 2017

Posts: 400

Likes: 61

Draisital is worth more as a center and has a higher pedigree. He also had a better year 2 than pastranak

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:16 a.m.

marc

Habs93

Joined: Mar. 2016

Posts: 162

Likes: 5

I totally agree with your bridge deal, but PC missed this opportunity last season. And there is one big problem with the comparision of contracts, the different state taxes.

yamahut liked this.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:25 a.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Edited Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:42 a.m.

Quoting: marc

I totally agree with your bridge deal, but PC missed this opportunity last season. And there is one big problem with the comparision of contracts, the different state taxes.

Please tell me about Alberta's "state" taxes in comparison to those of Massachusetts, because I don't think you know what you're talking about.

Edit: $5.5MM salary in Boston or Edmonton means a total net difference of $196,647 in favor of Boston. Big Whoop.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:26 a.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Quoting: grovercleveland

Draisital is worth more as a center and has a higher pedigree. He also had a better year 2 than pastranak

If you read the Team Explanation (or followed the Oilers at all), you'd know that Draisaitl isn't proven as a center. He scored all those points AS A WINGER.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:28 a.m.

yamahut

EDM

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 578

Likes: 80

Quoting: marc

I totally agree with your bridge deal, but PC missed this opportunity last season. And there is one big problem with the comparision of contracts, the different state taxes.

So true eh! I've seen folks complain about the Oilers not getting Demer when he was signed at only 4.5m in Florida. But Edmonton would have had to give him 6m for his take home to match or beat what the Panthers offered

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:31 a.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Quoting: ComYog

He isnt gonna sign for 3 years at 5.5, maybe 1 year.

1 year is more realistic, I agree. And I would do that deal too - I think it's important for the organization to get Draisaitl surrounded as a 2nd line center (figure out just how good he is when not playing RW to McDavid). My main point is to express my frustration with the narrative around this player, vs the narrative around players (like Pastrnak) whose accomplishments are very similar.

I will bow to your superior wisdom and change this to 1 x $5.5MM. laugh

blycan13 liked this.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:32 a.m.

bohmerov

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 5

Likes: 0

Edited Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:38 a.m.

I may disagree with a lot of your stuff here, but I can agree that Green needs to go to EDM. However, we want Drake Caggiula coming back with a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2018 because we figure Jared Coreau is just about ready to be a backup at the very least. Check out my fix of Holland's mess and see what you think.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:37 a.m.

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Edited Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:43 a.m.

Quoting: yamahut

Bullshit. The difference in personal income tax on $4.5MM salary between Alberta and Florida is $393,147. And Demers sucks, so they dodged a bullet.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:54 a.m.

#10

Styled

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 254

Likes: 12

Whether I or you agree with it or not, Oilers managment looks at Leon as a Center they can move around not a rightwing. Also playing styles are completly diffrent then the players you are compairing Leon to. Leon is a large bodied skilled center who took the 2nd most faceoffs behind Nuge on the team. He also was more then a PPG player in the playoffs, matching up against the Getzlafs and Thortons of the west. Thats why is value is higher then we all want it to be, regardless of why some teams can get high s oring players under contract for less.

blycan13 liked this.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 11:58 a.m.

#11

marc

Habs93

Joined: Mar. 2016

Posts: 162

Likes: 5

Edited Jul. 22, 2017 at 12:05 p.m.

Quoting: CD282

I haven´t compared Draisaitl with Pastarnak, I compared him with Kucherov. And I would have tried to sign him last year for 3 years between $4.5 and $5 million.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 12:11 p.m.

#12

Styled

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 254

Likes: 12

Edited Jul. 22, 2017 at 12:33 p.m.

And I get it.. I thought he would be in the 6.5 - 7m range before the playoffs myself. Then every playoff game I watched was bitter sweet. At times he was moved from CMD line to center Lucic and Slepy.. and killed it. He has in fact proven he can not only play Center, but also RW at a high level while floating around the line up and being in top 10 in scoring. He out played CMD in the playoffs.. he will get paid.

On another note Green needs to be an Oiler next year, would be a great add.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 12:45 p.m.

#13

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Edited Jul. 22, 2017 at 12:54 p.m.

Quoting: Styled

You did compair Leon to both actually. And I get it.. I thought he would be in the 6.5 - 7m range before the playoffs myself. Then every playoff game I watched was bitter sweet. At times he was moved from CMD line to center Lucic and Slepy.. and killed it. He has in fact proven he can not only play Center, but also RW at a high level while floating around the line up and being in top 10 in scoring. He out played CMD in the playoffs.. he will get paid.

On another note Green needs to be an Oiler next year, would be a great add.

First I would like to apologize to everybody for the tone of my comments - this issue gets me riled up, not at you guys but at the narrative surrounding these players in the MSM. People at THN / Sportsnet etc should know better, but they're framing the arguments in (IMO) an unbalanced manner. We all read / watch these sources, so some of it comes up here too.

To you specifically, Styled, I would like to point out that Draisaitl's playoff performance is not repeatable. He got hot, he got lucky, and oh what a joy it was to watch! But if you analyse the numbers, that Lucic-Draisaitl-Slepyshev line got killed in possession / shot metrics and the like, and instead went on an unprecedented and unrepeatable PDO tear. Both the shooting percentage and the save percentage of that line was unsustainably high. IMO it doesn't prove much except that Leon is a very talented young player. Could Gaudreau or Scheiflele or MacKinnon go on a similar tear for a couple of weeks? You bet they could. I doesn't mean that they should be paid like Malkin though. A bridge deal (even a one-year contract) would give us a much more accurate picture of who Draisaitl is as a player (without the McDavid tailwind), and then he should be paid accordingly. If that means $8MM per year, then great. But at this point I don't believe Draisaitl has proved himself to be worth any more than the Sheifele / Monohan / Barkov / Gaudreau / MacKinnon crowd.

marc and blycan13 liked this.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 1:05 p.m.

#14

blycan13

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 19

Likes: 2

Quoting: CD282

Quoting: grovercleveland

Draisital is worth more as a center and has a higher pedigree. He also had a better year 2 than pastranak

If you read the Team Explanation (or followed the Oilers at all), you'd know that Draisaitl isn't proven as a center. He scored all those points AS A WINGER.

Well, although I mostly agree with you, he had 52 points in 59 games centering his own line. Wasn't until the last 22-23 games where we was on Mcdavid's wing and lit it up. Your statement just makes it seem like Dri is an incompetent center. He held is own in the Ducks series, he actually dominated that series.. as a center.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 1:07 p.m.

#15

marc

Habs93

Joined: Mar. 2016

Posts: 162

Likes: 5

Quoting: CD282

Quoting: Styled

No problem. I totally agree with the bridge contract but in my opinion one year would be to short. At least two years and if Drai isn´t to much money focused he would accept 2 years for $10.5 totally.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 1:08 p.m.

#16

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Quoting: blycan13

Quoting: CD282

If you read the Team Explanation (or followed the Oilers at all), you'd know that Draisaitl isn't proven as a center. He scored all those points AS A WINGER.

See my response to Styled, above.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 4:01 p.m.

#17

Styled

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 254

Likes: 12

I like stats and advanced metrics as much as the next guy.. but that wont win you games. Might predict in a perfect vacuum tube world what an end result may be.. but thats not realistic either (Panthers). I am ok with a bridge deal too. However, if Leon wants 10m per season long term now and the Oilers might be able to sign him at 8-8.5 long term and they dont, going the 5.5m 1 year, where he is again top 10 in scoring improving on his year. What does he cost the Oilers then? Like it or not the Oilers will need a Leon type player to play against the teams in the west they need to overcome. Sheifele / Monohan / Barkov / Gaudreau / MacKinnon are either not as good as Leon or they will not fit the role Leon has right now on this team.

If Leon was so terrible with Lucic and Sleps why is the OP defaulting to that line make up? Because they were not, showed chemistry and provided results in games that mattered.

Jul. 22, 2017 at 4:15 p.m.

#18

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Quoting: blycan13

Quoting: CD282

If you read the Team Explanation (or followed the Oilers at all), you'd know that Draisaitl isn't proven as a center. He scored all those points AS A WINGER.

Um, no. Not even close. Draisaitl had 40 even strength points last year, only 15 of which occurred with McDavid on the bench.

His stats with McDavid: 10-15-25 in 670 minutes
His stats without McDavid: 3-12-15 in 500 minutes
He also scored 27 points on the first PP unit, WHICH INCLUDED MCDAVID.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?season=2016-17&sit=5v5&pid=1993&withagainst=true

Jul. 22, 2017 at 4:20 p.m.

#19

CD282

Thread Starter

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,115

Likes: 7,780

Quoting: blycan13

While on his own line last year (500 minutes, or about 35 games at 14:15 ES TOI per game) Draisaitl scored a grand total of three goals.

3.

THREE.

THREE!

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