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CHAR
Member Since
Jun. 15, 2022
Favourite Team
Anaheim Ducks
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 5:31 p.m.
Thread:
Dreaming but semi-realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>Would we use Puckpedia to evaluate Terry’s trade value as a $7M cap relief?
</div></div>
I'd have to know why we were trading Terry. In this question context and motivation for the trade matters. Is the team capped out and desperate for room? Did Terry become horrible value at that AAV? Do we have a better/cheaper replacement for Terry? There would have to be reasons why Terry is traded and what those reasons are determine if you are trading him as a cap dump or a positive value asset.
In a similar vein, why would Buffalo trade Skinner here? What is their motivation with littlejerryseinfeld's comment in my mind.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 5:13 p.m.
Thread:
Dreaming but semi-realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AntiAnalytics</b></div><div>1- Skinner isn’t just a cap dump though
2- we aren’t trading him anyways, so it’s pointless to argue about</div></div>
No argument on my side, I think it's an interesting discussion on value. You are a Buffalo fan... in a hypothetical for picks only trade what would you expect to get back for Skinner?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 4:48 p.m.
Thread:
Getting spicy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Renegade_H</b></div><div>Sometimes trades are skewed a bit. Getting Levshunov and Helenius/Greentree vs unknown 2025 pick.</div></div>
If you want to ignore the Edmonton 1st round pick its easy to say "skewed a bit". I'll trade you the Ducks 2025 1st for Philly's 2024 1st straight up and we'll see where the cards fall on draft position. You probably move up 2 or 3 spots at the cost of delaying for 1 year. But maybe you don't. Moving up a lot is possible. Moving back is also possible.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 4:36 p.m.
Thread:
Dreaming but semi-realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>Hey hey Char! Help me understand why Skinner would cost a 9OA to move at $7M. He has 92 - 99 -191 in 233 games over the past 3 seasons
For context, none of us are upset about Terry’s $7M, and he has 80 - 102 - 182 in 221</div></div>
Cause that's what the tool says that much cap relief is worth...
https://puckpedia.com/CapRelief
Like I said, that is putting the contract into a vacuum and ignoring the player completely. Go the other direction.... if you were to trade a pick(s) only for Skinner the player ignoring contract what value would you put on him? I honestly don't know what value I'd give him but I don't think I'd trade a 24th overall draft pick for him. I don't know, maybe he is worth that much.
Where he breaks down a bit for me is if he is a 50-60 point player or an 80 point player? He's scored 50-ish points in a season a lot more often than he has 80. You should be able to get a 50 point player in free agency without giving up any value. Is he really all that much better @7M than Vatrano was last season @3.6M? Would you trade a 24th OA pick for Vatrano? I wouldn't.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:20 p.m.
Thread:
Getting spicy
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>I don't know about that, but it's going to be as early or earlier than the Philly pick this year.</div></div>
I ran the pick values out of curiosity. A fair trade for the Philly 1st vs the Edmonton 1st (28) + XX landed on the 24th pick in the first round. The Ducks would have to jump about 40 points up the standings to get a pick in the correct range to make that a good deal.
It's a 25 point jump from the Ducks 59 points to Buffalo's 84 (11th pick) going by this year's standings. The Ducks picking top 10 is more likely than not.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 2:13 p.m.
Thread:
Verbuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_neutral</b></div><div>I signed 2 RHD cause the ducks just have so much cap and really need help with shutdown guys on the back-end.
As for duclair, I know verbeek said he wants to improve bottom 6 scoring. Frankie is just not a 3rd line guy, he thrived in the top 6 I dont see him being shuffled down the lineup.
</div></div>
Spending 6-8M on a top 6 RW uses the cap too. As for Vatrano's fit on the 3rd line I'll disagree. He thrived on the power play and from playing with good players like McTavish. There isn't any reason to think he won't continue to get PP time even with the additions of Gauthier and some other RW. The team lost Henrique and Silverberg and both guys were on a PP unit.
As to who he plays with, the Ducks will be deep enough up front to have a solid 3rd line of real quality players.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mr_neutral</b></div><div>Ducks need to get Dostal the net for 70-80 percent of the year. </div></div>
You can count the goalies that play 65 games in a season on one hand in today's NHL. 40-50 is a much more typical work load now. Gibson and Dostal doing exactly what they did this season in splitting the starts is just fine. Again, the Ducks have no cap issues so booting Gibson off the roster just because is kind of silly. You are essentially paying Ned 4M AAV which is only trimming 2.4M off of what they'd pay Gibson in a couple of years where the cap hit doesn't matter. Trimming cap is always nice of course but intentionally down grading your goal tending position is asking for trouble.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:51 p.m.
Thread:
Dreaming but semi-realistic
Your compensation for 7M of Skinner over 3 years is way light using PuckPedia's tools. The Ducks should be getting the value of a 9th OA draft pick for that contract and the difference between the Buffalo #11 and the picks from the Ducks is only 24 OA. The BUF pick alone with no picks going back isn't enough if we're talking about a pure cap dump. I guess you are giving Skinner as a player some value to off set, but I still think the Ducks lose a lot of value here.
I slotted the Edmonton pick at 28 since we won't know where exactly that pick is for a few weeks. FWIW.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:20 p.m.
Thread:
Getting spicy
The Ducks pick swap is terrible. That 2025 1st is going to be inside the top 10 again.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:17 p.m.
Thread:
Anaheim major trade
Nothing in that trade makes me want to send Zegras to Detroit. Easy no for the Ducks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:11 p.m.
Thread:
Verbuild
I think you are at least 2M light on Pesce. In a world where Orlov got 1x7.75M I can't imagine Pesce's next contract doesn't start with a "7". I also see the Ducks signing one RD but not two. The 3rd pair guy will be some budget option like Lindstrom.
Retention on Gibson's contract is always the kicker. My opinion is that the team wants to retain zero, but we'll see on that.
Duclair is great and I like him a ton but he's just too redundant with Vatrano. I think the Ducks want to set their sights higher at a true top six right wing so that they can push Frankie down onto the 3rd line where you have Duclair.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 12:40 a.m.
Thread:
Another would they
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jded</b></div><div>I’ll join the ANA consensus here. Despite playing a position of need, Lilj is a bad fit and I’d have zero interest in him in ANA. The RD need is a big defensive minded top 2 capable RD to partner with Minty and/or Zellweger.</div></div>
The easiest stat to point to for what the Ducks need on the right side is PK TOI. Fowler logged 3:14, Gudas 3:00 and while a Duck Lyubushkin was at 2:56. The kids like Mintyukov and Zellweger can run the power play units just fine but we need guys to play big minutes on the kill. Frankly that's too much TOI for both Fowler and Gudas but they get thrown out because the other options aren't good enough (and the team is shorthanded way too much).
Basically getting a better version of Lyubushkin would be ideal. Heck if I had to choose between Boosh and Liljegren I'd take Boosh for another season without a second thought about it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 2:48 p.m.
Thread:
What I would do
Nah, the Ducks aren't doing that.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 10:13 a.m.
Thread:
Offseason getting better defensively and younger
I'll differ from the other Anaheim guys and say no to that deal. Perbix is nothing special and Jeannot is the second coming of Max Comtois. Basically a some what physical 4th liner that had one season of an unrepeatable shooting percentage. At 2.6M Jeannot is terrible value and the Ducks already have Brock McGinn to be "that guy".
FWIW, Jones has a 1.5M QO. I see no reason why he'd take a 1M contract. If he takes the QO that walks him to UFA the following season. Or Tampa doesn't give him the QO and he hits UFA right now.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 2:34 p.m.
Thread:
a new core without Mitch or JT
Tell you what, if you convince Gibson to waive to TOR and Tavares to waive to ANA plus wait until JT's bonus money is paid I'll do that trade all day every day 1 for 1. The Leafs can keep their pick and all they have to do is pay the bonus money. No retention needed.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 4:27 p.m.
Thread:
Off Season
You'll be lucky to get a 5th round pick for Kupari (what Anaheim paid for Ben Meyers). Odds are pretty good that if you put him on waivers next season he'll go unclaimed.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 25 at 11:30 a.m.
Thread:
New Ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>I don’t disagree with really anything you said. That being said I still don’t see them as a playoff team for another few years so if that’s the case you still have the time to build ur team up through the draft with picks because in 3 years those players should be ready to help contribute</div></div>
Another thing that could be true in three years is Zegras is a 26 yr-old stud in his prime years scoring 100+ points. That would be a pretty nice piece to have on a playoff team. It's perfectly fine if Philly doesn't want to trade Tippett or Foerester because the Ducks are just as fine with keeping Zegras. All this "he's available" chatter is coming out of places that conveniently want to acquire him: Montreal, Philly, Detroit and so on. You've heard not one comment from Verbeek or the coaches or the Anaheim players that Zegras is a bad fit or available.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 25 at 10:27 a.m.
Thread:
New Ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>You finishing at the bottom of the league for like the 5th year in a row doesn’t suggest ur coming out of a rebuild and really shows ur probably still in one for a few years but we can agree to disagree</div></div>
This is probably worth responding to also. From a guy that watches every Ducks game, win or lose, there were some VERY positive signs of improvement this season. Do I expect them in the playoffs next season? Of course not. But they shouldn't be bottom 5 in the league any more. You have to start building or you never stop re-building (see Buffalo).
Injuries wrecked this team with key guys being out all season. It was a rotation of Zegras out, McTavish out, Killorn out, Carlssson out, Mintyukov out, etc, etc. We saw for a large part of the season what the team looks like without Zegras on the ice. It was bad. The team looks a whole lot better when he was playing.
The other key area that is a coachable fix is penalties. The team had bad special teams, both the PK and the PP (missing all those guys listed above). On top of having a bad PK they took more penalties than any one else by a mile. The times the Ducks were short handed compared to their opponents was triple digits. Taking less penalties and having special teams in the 18-22 range of the league would be an easy 10 more wins IMO. The Flyers had 11 more wins than the Ducks did this season. Granted, "take less penalties" is easy to say and it's on the players to actually do it. But there's no reason the players can't do it, penalties are largely mental.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 25 at 10:12 a.m.
Thread:
New Ideas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>Well it’s fine man we can agree to disagree but basically nobody commands the return I gave above lol so it’s definitely fair</div></div>
The value isn't the issue and that is what you seem too hard headed to understand. Anaheim wants a roster player for Zegras it's that simple. And that's why Gibby keeps harping on Foerester or Tippett... they are roster players.
The Ducks already have a top 3 prospect / under 23 pipe line. Then the team will take another top 5 pick this draft followed by three more 1st and 2nd round picks. There is no lacking of picks and prospects in Anaheim. In contrast, players that score goals are in VERY short supply.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 25 at 12:13 a.m.
Thread:
New Ideas
A pile of 2025 picks does absolutely zero to make Anaheim a better team.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 22 at 1:11 a.m.
Thread:
Red Wings 24-25 Not Realistic
I'd rather pay Leason 1M to score 20 points than pay Fabbri 4M to score 30. No thanks on that trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 18 at 10:33 a.m.
Thread:
Trade Faulk
With a full NTC you are going to have to wrap your head around getting a Ryan McDonagh level return for Faulk. That would be far less than Helleson and a 2nd from the Ducks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 16 at 3:53 p.m.
Thread:
Back in the playoffs next season
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>liveslaflove</b></div><div>then he can be taken out of the trade, just thought it would be easier for anaheim to let go of cap space while taking on some, to save $ for there young guys.</div></div>
The Ducks have a roster spot that they can give to a defender like Fowler for a year or two. They don't have an open roster spot for a forward. Counting the guys signed and just NHL level RFA's there are 15 players already. Then you've got 3 or 4 more AHL level guys that legitimately could make the roster if there was space. Point being there are already going to be guys cut from the team. Adding forwards like Anderson, Farrell and Ylonen only adds to that mess and so they add little value to any trade.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread:
Redrafting Vegas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Matt1567</b></div><div>well that's a capfriendly problem</div></div>
No worries, I'm having a slow Monday so killing a little time on cap friendly is all I'm after here. And as you can probably tell I'm a little bitter about that draft :-)
Murray wasn't the only GM that was really, really dumb in that process and we all saw the result with Vegas instantly going to the top of the standings and taking only a few years to win a cup. People thinking Seattle was going to enjoy that same level of success were fooling themselves. GM's learned a hard lesson with Vegas and didn't repeat it. Seattle made very few side deals and acquired almost no players that were not exposed to the draft.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15 at 12:12 p.m.
Thread:
Redrafting Vegas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Matt1567</b></div><div>as per bleacher report "All pro players with two or fewer years of NHL experience and unsigned draft picks are protected, but don't count toward the team's final total.", and as of the expansion draft Theodore had played parts of 4 professional seasons, making him eligible to be selected, and since Anaheim chose not to protect him he was available for the taking. The Knight's couldn't have taken Manson, he was protected but as you said it was Mason and Vatanen the ducks were worried about, and Vatanen was left unprotected. Had there not been a side deal, Vatanen likely would've been a golden knight, but drafting the team 7 years later Theodore is the clear choice, and he was eligble to be selected due to his 4 partial professional seasons and being left unprotected, and I didn't make any assumptions that the protection lists would've been different had side deals not been agreed upon.</div></div>
Mason was not protected and Theodore was not available:
https://www.nhl.com/news/protected-list-for-vegas-golden-knights-nhl-expansion-draft-289972722
From that article...
All first- and second-year professionals are <strong>exempt </strong>from selection, as are unsigned draft choices.
The source you quoted calling these guys "protected but not counting towards the team's total" is really strange wording. Much easier to call them exempt, which is what they were. Theodore played 19 games in 15/16 and 34 games in 16/17 for the Ducks prior to the draft. The two seasons he played less than 10 games in the AHL didn't count as his contract slid in those.
An additional part of Murray's bungle here was giving Bieksa, who was washed as a player at that point, a full NMC. All players with such clauses required protecting and that meant the Ducks protected Fowler, Lindholm and Bieksa. Protecting Manson instead of Bieksa would have been an alternate way around trading Theodore but that was not an option.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Apr. 15 at 10:21 a.m.
Thread:
Redrafting Vegas
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Matt1567</b></div><div>While he was traded to Vegas, he was not protected for the expansion draft. My guess is that Anaheim chose to use him as a sweetener to convince Vegas to take Clayton Stoner's contract, and would've traded him had Vegas not agreed to take Stoner, that or they would've worked out a different way to protect him, potentially involving a different side deal with Vegas, but in theory Vegas could've selected Theodore, not Stoner, and broke their deal with Anaheim, screwing them over and ruining their GM's reputation on day one.
You could make the assumption that Theodore wouldn't have ended up in Vegas without a side deal, but I didn't and just selected the best player available, which was Theodore</div></div>
Theodore was exempt from the expansion draft. The Ducks traded him to Vegas so they would take Stoner as you said, but the two guys they were afraid to lose were Josh Manson and/or Sami Vatanen. Theodore was a side deal and your "rules" in the description was no side deals is all I'm saying. The Knights would have taken Manson in the draft.
This is one of the biggest bungles that Bob Murray ever did as a GM and is one of the primary reasons the Ducks are in the bottom feeder state they are in.
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