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Colin4000

Colin400
Member Since
May 23, 2015
Favourite Team
Ottawa Senators
2nd Favourite Team
St. Louis Blues
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 20, 2016 at 11:38 a.m.
Thread: If Melnyk wasn't cheap
Seems like an overpayment for Lindholm. He's still relatively unproven, still at the stage of only showing flashes of brilliance. If he doesn't turn out to be that #1 guy we hoped for, we just shot ourselves in the foot big time. Plus four first round picks in my mind is way too big a compensation for me to consider.

If we're talking about offer sheets, however, I'd rather target Nikita Kucherov. Tampa Bay still have him and Nesterov to sign, with just over $6.5 million in cap space. Kucherov has already had two seasons to show his star power, and has cemented himself as a top-10 winger in the league. Which means he deserves a large contract.

I'd offer him anywhere between $7-$7.5 million on a 7-year deal, probably closer to the higher end. This forces Tampa Bay to a) sign him and go over the cap (the more likely option) or b) let him go and take the compensation of a first, second and third round pick (which is VERY reasonable value for Kucherov).

Although Tampa will likely take the cap penalty, as Kucherov is invaluable to them, it could be worth a shot at screwing over a divisional rival.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 15, 2016 at 11:20 p.m.
Thread: Hustling, hustling, hustling. Everyday Alex Wennberg is hustling, de de dun.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UltramanTaro</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Colin4000</b></div><div><i>Columbus doesn't seem like the right trading partner. They're looking for cap relief, and with the internal budget, Ottawa can't take on anything more. Sending them Turris only gives them more cap, which is the last thing they want.

Also, Columbus is a rebuilding team. They just drafted Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall, and their AHL team just won the Calder Cup powered by a bunch of young studs. Yes, they need a #1 centreman, but Wennberg very well could be that for them. I don't think they'll be shopping their picks, either.</i></div></div> Campbell is the one year campdump, and Wennberg will need to be paid more if he has a good year than Turris.</i></div></div>

When you've got contracts like those of Hartnell, Foligno and Clarkson, $1.5 mill. for a single year is barely a cap dump.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 5, 2016 at 7:19 p.m.
Thread: Now let's spend all the way
I'm not going to bother with the 4th one, but I'd like to leave with a couple reminders.

When making trades, try to consider more than just the current performance of players. For example, Methot is a decent top-4 defenseman, but his inevitable decline and large contract bring down that value.

But the big point is try to consider more than what's in it for the Senators. Consider what the other team gets in return, and if they'd be equally as happy with the return. That's the whole reason that trades exist, so that both teams can benefit.

I'd like to counter your trade proposals:

Nail Yakupov
For
3rd round pick
That way Edmonton gets something in return for a declining asset, while moving him to the opposite conference.

Kevin Shattenkirk
For
Colin White
Chris Wideman
Cond. 2nd round pick (becomes 1st if Ottawa makes it past 1st round of playoffs)
That way, St. Louis gets a replacement roster player (right side becomes Pietrangelo-Parayko-Wideman), plus two great prospects in return to compensate for the value between the two players.

Rights to Hampus Lindholm
For
Mike Hoffman
Straight up, one-for-one. Yes, our left wing depth will suffer, but if Smith can continue to produce (which is unlikely), it softens the blow. But we create the best d-pairing in the league in the process, so it's worth it. Lindholm signs for about the same that Hoffman signed for, clearing up any cap concerns. I imagine this one would get the most criticism.

Let me know what you think. Hope this thread helps.

4/4
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 5, 2016 at 6:56 p.m.
Thread: Now let's spend all the way
Ottawa and Anaheim trying to make a trade is like Chicago and Pittsburgh trying to make a major deal: near impossible. Both teams are strapped with internal budgets, and already near or at the top.

Lindholm is a special talent, and paired with Karlsson, could create the best pairing in NHL history. That being said, if he's being shopped, Anaheim will expect a ton of value. Like Shattenkirk, his price will be raised simply because of the fact that he's a defenseman. It follows the basic supply-demand principle.

As for the return, it's almost laughable to think that Anaheim doesn't instantly hang up. Marc Methot is decent, but the only reason he's playing top-2 is because Karlsson likes playing with him. His possession stats showed he struggled mightily this past season, and he'd be a 3-4 guy on almost any other team, including Anaheim. Not a legitimate first pairing guy like Lindholm projects to become.

Also to note is that Methot's on a pretty bad contract that Anaheim wouldn't be able to accept without us having to retain salary.

Matt Puempel has done well in the AHL, but during his 26-game stint last year, he didn't seem to find his stride. Opposite to the market for defensemen, young forwards aren't as hard to come across. Anaheim already has another young players that would outplay him for a roster spot, and considering Puempel needs to clear waivers, that only lowers his trade value.

The third round pick is good, but again, it's still a gamble that the player chosen with the pick plays in the NHL.

3/4
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 5, 2016 at 6:39 p.m.
Thread: Now let's spend all the way
There's a couple big reasons why the Shattenkirk trade won't happen.

Firstly, Ottawa doesn't need him. Yes, he'd form an excellent 1-2 punch with Karlsson, but that pushes Ceci to the third pairing, which I doubt the organization would be willing to do. If you put Ceci in the trade, however, that could change things.

Secondly, and probably most importantly, the value is WAY out of whack. The only way I see that happening is if Doug Armstrong turns into Benning or Chiarelli, but he's proven to actually be a smart general manager.

Let's start with Shattenkirk. He's a first pairing defender, and has excelled. He's put up incredible offensive numbers, and isn't half-bad on the defensive end either. With good defensemen becoming so rare to hit the trading block, it would take at least a first round pick for St. Louis to even consider it.

Now, Ottawa's side. Dzingel <em>could</em> be a decent middle-6 forward, and Chris Wideman <em>could</em> be a top-4 guy (a bit of a longer shot), and St. Louis would be lucky if the 4th round pick plays a game in the NHL.

In other terms, Shattenkirk is elite, none of the pieces going back are even close.

2/4
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 5, 2016 at 6:02 p.m.
Thread: For Guy Boucher (old voltigeur players}
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Zbaddest</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div><i>Do you really think any team wants MacArthur and his never ending 4.8m contract?</i></div></div> Ummmm first of all it's $4.5 million, and also, it's only another four years. Besides, I don't want him to get traded. He is a solid left winger capable of 20+ goals and 50+ points, he provides great leadership, and winning teams need players like him to succeed. He is 100% healthy, he has had more than enough time to recover and he is ready and will be solid for the Sens next season.</i></div></div>

I'm all for MacArthur, but the last time he scored 20 goals was in 2013-14, and he's only accomplished the feat twice in his career.

He's 31, which generally isn't that old for the NHL, but it's around where players start to decline. And because he's had injury troubles, I'm not expecting his game to hold up to top-6 quality for much longer. That's not a player you want to have locked up for four years at $4.5 mill.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 31, 2016 at 11:31 p.m.
Thread: Let's have nice things?
I'm going to say right off the bat that I really like the idea behind all these trades, even though they'll never happen as you mentioned with our budget.

A first round pick is a hefty price to pay for unloading Gravovski. Personally, I'd switch the first to a conditional third, that could become a second if they win a round or Ryan scores 25 or something. The pick is also reduced because NYI is taking Ryan's salary in return. But I'd love the idea of bringing in Strome.

Hampus Lindholm would be a dream. I understand your reasoning behind sending the three pieces back, but looking at the trade, Ottawa's definitely getting back the best player. By a lot.

How I'd change it is that I'd give up a 2nd round pick instead of Matt Puempel, with again a condition with the potential for it to move up to a late first rounder. With the value of draft picks at an all-time high, that could potentially have almost as much value as Ceci alone. The combo of the two plus Lazar fill the gap between the bridge.

I don't think Pittsburgh would accept the Fleury trade, for the reason being they're taking back Anderson. Anderson is right now a starting goalie, and I don't see Ottawa making a goalie trade until either his contract is coming to an end, or he heavily regresses. Although it would be a proactive move, I don't see Pittsburgh wanting to take him back if they're trying to give a starting role to Matt Murray.

Hope the input helps, and again, I really like the ideas being the trades. Just some minor tweaks.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 25, 2016 at 12:31 p.m.
Thread: Ottawa Senators If Melnyk isn't a cheapskate.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UltramanTaro</b></div><div><i><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Colin4000</b></div><div><i>That Lindholm offer sheet is massive.

Massive as in a major defensive upgrade. Our defensive corps looks like the best in the league now.

But it's also massive as in a massive contract that could haunt us forever. Lindholm as of now isn't much better than Cody Ceci. He has plenty more upside, but he hasn't really broken out yet as that #1 everyone's hoping for. I'm not saying he's a bust, but he's not deserving of a $7 million+ contract yet.

Also, because it's an offer sheet, we'd have to give up a 1st + 2nd + 3rd round pick, which may not be worth it. And if we have to go much higher (if Anaheim matches), than we may have to give up TWO first round picks + 2nd + 3rd.</i></div></div>

That's true, but at the same time when you sign someone to an 8 year deal, the 7.15 in the future will look good. If Lindholm signed a 4mill bridge for 3 years, expect him to make 7.5-8 mill after the contract is over, so the 7.15 is better. With this D corps, and an improved forward roster, we'll easily make the playoffs (Bare extreme injuries, or absolutely insane bad luck), so giving up a mid at worst 1st rounder, 2nd rounder, and 3rd rounder is fine. BTW Lindholm is much better than Ceci, plays tougher minutes, and is one of the best players in the league defensively. Granted Lindholm had much better partners both offensively and defensively, but still. Besides, when it comes to goaltending, Lindholm and Ceci play behind generally similar goalies, as both Andersen and Anderson were above average and not elite the past season.</i></div></div>

Let's look at the two scenarios:

Scenario 1: Sign him to a 3-year bridge deal with AAV of $4 million, then the long-term contract of $8 million AAV. Over the next eight years, Lindholm will make $52 million.

Scenario 2: Sign him to an 8-year contract worth $7.15 million AAV. Over the next eight years, Lindholm will make $57.2 million.

So you're saving money by doing the bridge deal, which is the whole point of why it exists.