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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 9, 2019 at 1:14 a.m.
Thread: EK65 and Pavs Trades w TOR MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>The difference between Dermott and Gudas are as stark as can be. Why I don't like Gudas is because he's slow. Now I do think you can get by with a slower defenceman but only if they are lower in the lineup. A 3rd pair guy who can kill penalties and his speed isn't a huge issue although if he gets stuck out there with top level talent, it can be a really bad scenario. Gudas is slow, that alone makes him not wroth more than a 3rd round pick at the deadline when his contract is expiring. I am sure others would say maybe a 2nd at the deadline and I am sure some teams would pay that price. That being said, I wouldn't.

As for him being our 4th best defenceman, that is true only under the assumption that Rosen and whoever else makes the team don't show well. Rosen was pretty much the best defenceman in the AHL last year and an unfortunate shot block cost him a full month of NHL experience. I am high on Rosen, he's cheap and plays the new way, fast, smooth and smart. So the Leafs have 5 guys I am confident will be good players on the blue line. They also have some intriguing rookies that could potentially make the jump. I'd like to see what Gordeev or Rasannen can do, both massive right handers. Both are likely a year or two away from making the jump but there are others on the farm that should get an audition in the near future.

All of that reinforces that there is zero need to spend good assets on Gudas who really doesn't push the needle at all. If it costs them Kadri, its a big step back.</div></div>

When I say Gudas is similar to Dermott I mean stat wise. Analytics, points, usage to a lesser extent, all somewhat similar. When it comes to the type of players, I stand by my comparison that Dermott is a worse version of Sanheim

Also, you keep saying Gudas is slow which is the main reason why he’s a 5 and not a 3/4 when in reality speed is probably the reason he’s a 3/4 and not a 2/3. Like I said in the other thread, he faced number 3 d-man levels of competition and did well on a bad team with arguably the worst d-man in the NHL as a partner for 40% of the time. I don’t see why facing that same level of competition on a better team and presumably a better partner would be troublesome

As for him possibly being the 4th best d-man, sure we never know, but odds say that’ll be the case. Could he be better than Dermott? Sure, but one would think he’d take the next step and be better than Gudas. Can one of the others surprise and be better than Gudas? Sure, but again, odds are that it won’t be the case. Gudas would essentially be more of a sure thing

As for the Leafs needing Gudas, that’s just a matter of opinion so I can’t really debate that with you. I’ll just agree to just disagree. As for taking a step back, Leafs are gonna have to subtract from their roster just to fit players. Gardner is gone but it won’t be enough to keep everybody. Gonna have to give somebody up. Logic says the best way for the Leafs to do that is either give up a player straight up for picks or give a higher priced forward for a lower priced d-man and odds are you’ll lose out a bit in quality
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 2:03 p.m.
Thread: EK65 and Pavs Trades w TOR MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Simply speaking Gudas isn't worth much. Any fan that would trade a 1dt for Gudas doesn't know hockey</div></div>

I agree with the second part, not sure I agree with the 1st sentence depending on your definition of much. But it probably has to do with our different opinions on Gudas’ quality, not much to it

Also, as a reply to one of your comments to Dangles, I’m fairly confident when I say Gudas is more likely to be your 3rd best d-man (behind Muzzin and Rielly) than your 7th. He’d probably be 4th behind Dermott too who you seem to be high on, so am I, which is odd because there are many of the same arguments that can be made for Gudas and Dermott being good. In fact one of your main arguments for Gudas being bad is one that can be used against Dermott. I find it odd that you’d be high on one and not the other. Dermott actually reminds me a worse version of Sanheim who formed a great pairing with Gudas himself
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 8, 2019 at 12:03 a.m.
Thread: EK65 and Pavs Trades w TOR MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>So why would TO trade a young guy with potential for Gudas who is older and slower? (I know he's not that old)</div></div>

Because there are much more to trades than age and speed. There’s what you have a lot of, what you need, value, etc

A lot of it is subjective though. I know at least 2 Leafs fan who were willing to trade a first round pick for Gudas before they got Muzzin. For you, that obviously isn’t the case, it probably isn’t for me either, but it’s all a matter of opinion

But why would you want Gudas? It’s because of our description. If I didn’t name the player but I told you that you’d be getting a 28 year old, 2nd pair, right handed d-man, who is very good defensively, plays playoff style hockey and isn’t a juggernaut offensively but is still a good puck mover, for 1.8 million (after retained salary), I’m pretty sure you, or at least most Leafs fans would be interested in that player. The only issue is some people think Gudas fits that description whereas you don’t. But if you thought Gudas fit that description, or chose another player that you thought fit that description, I’m pretty sure you’d think getting that player makes sense for the Leafs

As for what you’re giving up, Leafs need to shed cap. Ideally they’d get rid of somebody like Marleau or Zaitsev, maybe Brown, but those guys wouldn’t garner much of a return and most people don’t really want those guys. It’s why fans from other teams choose to trade for guys like Kadri or Johnsson or Kapanen or Nylander. It’s guys that are kind of expendable for the Leafs depending on the return since they have such a strong group of forwards, although I’d be shocked if they get rid of Nylander a lot more than I would be about the other 3

Once you choose which forward you’re giving up, it’s about finding that balance in value. Like this deal, you start off with something like Kadri for Gudas. Obviously Kadri has more value so you try and add to Gudas to make the value even. Once you add whatever you feel is fair value, the trade starts to make sense. It would be the same thing for a guy like Kapanen and again, if Gudas doesn’t fit the description according to you, then it doesn’t have to be him, but any d-man that you believe fits that description would suffice. Since Kapanen is younger you probably need to add even more to make up for the age gap, but once whatever value needed is added, the trade starts to make sense. Leafs improve their position of weakness while subtracting from a position of strength, they shed cap making it easier to sign their other players. It’s that simple
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 7, 2019 at 7:29 p.m.
Thread: EK65 and Pavs Trades w TOR MTL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>What are you even talking about man. Look at worst Gudas has been a 3rd pair defenceman his entire career and at best, that is exactly what he is. There is nothing wrong with that. He's an NHL player, hardly anyone can say that. He just isn't anything more than a bottom pair guy. Gudas is Gudbranson or Polak or Orpik or name any other phyiscal defenceman who is rather slow and has little offence. They have some value but not a lot, mainly because they get exposed by anyone with speed. Which is why players of this type all play bottom pair minutes on their respective teams. If Gudas played in Toronto, he'd have the same role that Roman Polak had. Bottom pair minutes and PK. If he cost 1.5 million or less, then I'd maybe send a 3rd or 4th round pick for him but that's all he's worth. You even know this, which is why Flyer fans are always trading Gudas.</div></div>

I’m talking about the thread I posted the link to lol. I’m not gonna get into this argument again. You just keep showing your ignorance. You compare Gudas to those 3 guys yet the stats say he’s a much better player than all 3. I gave them all to you in that thread. He’s a 4 or better in every offensive metric and every defensive metric yet you keep saying he’s a 5. That’s pure ignorance. Nothing we can do about it. And you say we know he’s a third pair guy because we’re always trading him. For starters, that simply isn’t true, but besides that, are you that oblivious to the reason we trade him and not our other guys? News flash, people like young players with potential. Of the 5 d-men with actual value Gudas is the oldest one by roughly 3 years. That’s why we choose to trade him over guys like Provorov, Ghost, Sanheim or Myers. It isn’t rocket science
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 4, 2019 at 9:30 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Time on ice is a sign a player is trusted with hard minutes, Gudas isn't. Plus minus is a useless stat, Ron Hainsey was a league leader in that stat and he isn't at all a top defenceman.

Look man, you are a fan of the Flyers and love gudas. There is no objective discussion here. Gudas is a bottom pair defenceman on a good team. Your judgement is clouded by your emotions.

Gudas isn't an interest for the Leafs.</div></div>

The fact that he faced second pairing level competition says a lot more about how he is trusted with hard minutes than his TOI does

But besides that, it feels like I’m talking to a wall... +/- is a useless stat, you’re right, but you’re using TOI lol. If you’re not gonna allow me to use a useless stat then don’t use one yourself lmao. The two people that were controlling Gudas’ TOI are currently not in the NHL. What does that say about them? And you’re seriously gonna ignore all the facts? When you lead the league in minutes played while trailing, are bottom 5 in both minutes played while tied and leading, use 7 d-men like we did and try to give more ice time to young guys to see what we have in them at the end of the season including calling up an AHLer, it’s only normal that a veteran defensive d-man will see his ice time get lowered. With all that going against him, he still saw 18 minutes a night, good for 4th on the d-core behind Provorov, Gostisbehere and Sanheim who are all guys you can argue are better than Gudas. It’s not like worse players were used more than he was

Even though it’s not realistic, if Nashville were to add Karlsson thus relegating one of their good d-men to third pair duties, would it make that d-man any worse than he is? No. It’s common sense. Time on ice doesn’t measure how good a d-man is. You can’t be that dumb

I literally just gave you 3 Leafs examples and you still think that. Please, I need to know, is Matthews the 64th best forward in the league? Is Johnsson a 4th liner and is Nylander a 3rd liner? Just answer those questions so I know if I’m dealing with a dumb person or dumb argument

And you keep saying I like Gudas when before I literally said I wasn’t a fan. Makes me wonder if you’re even reading a word I say or if you’re ignoring it all. Besides that, don’t like the guy, don’t hate him, I’m neutral on him in terms of favourite players. I’m just defending what we’re arguing about which is how good a player he is. Literally every single factual metric says that he’s a 2nd pair quality d-man or better yet you keep saying that he isn’t one. I’ve told you everything, you can’t be that ignorant. It’s not an opinion, it’s not being biased, it’s facts, it’s statistical evidence. Like c’mon man
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 4, 2019 at 12:15 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 4, 2019 at 12:13 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Yeah and was part of the defence that allowed the 3rd most goals in the league. Flyer fans really love their tough guys.

There is no argument here, if a player plays bottom pair minutes, it's not because they are a top pair defenceman. Those guys play those big minutes because they can be trusted in them. Gudas hasn't been given those opportunities and when he has, he obviously didn't impress</div></div>

Did you just use a team stat to judge the quality of a players? Lmao. You realize that he was the only player who had a positive +/- on the bad defense. Only two other skaters to do that on the Flyers were Giroux and Couturier. Those 3 players aren’t the reason we allowed goals. Hell, if you look at Gudas’ goals allowed rate, he ranks as a number 2 defensemen which was while being on a bad team with bad goaltending. So next time, please look at the player’s actual stats instead of the team stats which include him not even being on the ice

As for time on ice, I still can’t believe you’re trying to use that as an argument, but I’ll go with it. So let’s pretend the coaches are always 100% right even if they aren’t because that’s the only way your argument can possibly work. The Flyers were a team playing from behind most of the time. It’s only logical that on a team with the likes of Provorov, Gostisbehere and Sanheim, his ice time will take a hit in that situation. I wouldn’t want a Hagg/Gudas pairing out on the ice when we need a goal. On an average team, his ice time increases. Hell, the Flyers used 7 d-men for large portions of the season. That alone would have increased his ice time from 18 minutes a game to like 19 minutes a game. But again, I’m not supposed to be using logic here since judging a player by ice time is illogical. So let’s just use your logic instead. Andreas Johnsson got 4th line minutes, he’s a 4th liner. William Nylander got 3rd line minutes so he’s a 3rd liner. That means both those players are worth little to nothing in a trade since bottom 6 players don’t usually go for much. Auston Matthews is not as good as people think he is. He’s actually the 64th best forward in the NHL. He’d be the 4th best forward on Philadelphia. Do you see why TOI is a useless stat now?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 10:58 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Gudas plays 3rd pair minutes, almost always and never has difficult competition. His advanced stats can say anything but he is a 15-17 minutes a game player for a reason.</div></div>

He isn’t a 15-17 minute player but besides that, you really gonna judge a player based off TOI? We had arguably the worst d-man in the NHL dressed all year. He was on the first pairing at one point this year. We had our 6th best forward on the 4th line for half the season. It’s almost like coaches can be stupid. Also, where does he rank among Flyers d-men in quality of competition? 3rd. Almost like they were using him against the other teams second best players. And where does he rank among Flyers d-men in quality of teammates? Dead last. Almost like he was saddled with one of the worst d-men in the NHL for 40% of the season. Next argument
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 8:05 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>I am not actually as high on Kapanen as other Leaf fans but he did just come off scoring 20 goals and 44 points in his first full season. I'd say the comparison to Cogliano is a bit of a stretch and you can never compare a 22 year old to a 31 year old when determining value. That is all just silly.

Gudas is not a top 4 minute eating defenceman. He's a bottom pair guy who in a pinch won't cost you a great deal of trouble playing on the 2nd pair. That makes him at best a bottom 4 defenceman. You don't trade a former 1st round pick, who scored 20 goals in his rookie season, for a bottom 4 defenceman who is turning 29 and takes a tonne of penalties. That just doesn't make any sense. Gudas would cost the Leafs more than he'd help them.</div></div>

I did say my comparison was wrong. My point was that you can say something in a certain way and make it look accurate even if it isn’t. Sort of like your Polak comparison before. But I just can’t fathom why you think Gudas is a 3rd pair guy when literally every metric says he isn’t. If you’re saying that he can play on a third pair, then sure, cause depending on the team and defensive pairings, choosing the right combo, stuff like that, he can end up on a third pairing. But on any given team, at worst he’s a number 5 and that’s only on the teams who have great defenses. On most teams, he’s a 3 or a 4. On some teams he’s as high as a 2. That doesn’t sound like third pairing to me

Like literally any way you want to swing it, the conclusion ends up being, Radko Gudas is a second pair quality d-man. Scores points at the rate of a number 4 d-man. Creates shots at the rate of a number 3 d-man. Corsi for percentage, number 4 d-man. High danger chance percentage, number 2 d-man. Expected goals percentage, number 3 d-man. Shot surpression, number 4 d-man. Overall advanced stats, a 2/3 d-man. Want to look at more traditional stats? Hits, top of the league. Blocks, 1st pair d-man. Plus/Minus, number 3 d-man. All this while playing on a bad team and facing 2nd tier comp and being saddled with one of the worst defensemen in the NHL for 40% of the year until we finally called some guys up and started using Hagg like he should be used. How does any of this scream 3rd pair d-man who might be able to play on the 2nd pair? It’s like saying Matthews is a 2C who might be able to be a 1C

If Gudas is on Toronto, for starters, he would probably be your 3rd best d-man. His point totals would probably jump from 20 to like 25-30 and you’d be describing him as a shut down, second pair d-man who can move the puck, which is accurate

Penalties is something that I haven’t seen somebody really complain about but there are some pretty good names who take lots of penalties. Hell the guy leading in minors taken is a Norris Nominee. Jake Muzzin has 3 less minors than Gudas. I doubt you think Muzzin does more harm than good. Gudas’ penalties would be even lower if you remove the coincidental penalties that don’t even result in having to go on the PK

And I still don’t know why you keep bringing up the trade when whatever you say doesn’t change anything. I’ve said it so many times, I’m okay with the fact that you don’t like the trade. Ever since my first reply to you I haven’t been arguing the value of the trade. All I’ve been arguing is that Gudas is a 2nd pair d-man. You commenting on the trade won’t change that argument
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 5:01 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>You are a Gudas fan, keep him. Kapanen will either be a Leaf next season or he'll be moved for a much better package than this. My hope is he is traded for another young player on an ELC that has potential to be a net front presence. Which the Matthews line really could use. Gudas isn't at all something the Leafs need.</div></div>

I’m not even a fan and it would just make sense to move him if we got a guy like Trouba. My comments regarding him are just about addressing a dude who thinks he’s a lot worse than he is. Idk if you like Kapanen but it’s the equivalent to me saying he’s an average third liner, all he has is speed, he’s essentially what Cogliano is at this point of his career therefore Kapanen is worth scraps just like Cogliano is. If it wasn’t you, some Leafs fan would have been insulting me or just explaining why Kapanen is indeed better than that description. It’s only fair because that description isn’t accurate. And like I said before, if you don’t like the trade, I’m perfectly fine with that, just making sure you actually know what you’re getting in return. Has nothing to do with your thoughts on the actual value itself or what you believe the Leafs need
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Oh I pay attention to them, but I also think they can easily be skewed to paint whatever picture someone wants to tell. Somethings that can be said about Gudas are these. He isn't a very strong skater, he doesn't play against top talent, has no offense to speak of. All of that points to a bottom pair guy. He isn't trash, he just isn't worth much since bottom pair defenceman aren't that hard to find.</div></div>

To your point, I can point out all the negatives in Karlsson’s game and make him look like a bad d-man if I wanted to. There’s just enough good that points to the other direction. Sure Gudas isn’t fast but it’s not like his speed hinders him. You say he has no offense but he’s solid with the puck on his stick. He’s a good puck mover which is what you want from a d-man. He won’t dazzle you but in the offensive zone he’ll make the right play, put the puck on net, has a hard shot. Nothing close to elite, but serviceable. For arguments sake, his point totals actually rank as a low end second pair d-man, high end their pair d-man at worse and this is while playing on a third tier team. He doesn’t play against top talent but that isn’t his job as a second pair d-man (he never played with Provorov, or at least not for long stretches of time). Usually plays against the team’s middle six guys which isn’t the best quality of competition but not the worse. His advanced stats were great and this was with having arguably the worst d-man in the NHL, especially on the analytics side of things for about 40% of the season. You look at his analytics away from Hagg, they aren’t just great, they’re elite. Doesn’t mean he’s an elite player but that isn’t just a fluke. Combine that with a very solid defensive game and you get a solid 2nd pair d-man. Sure stats aren’t everything but there’s nothing that points to him being worse than a number 4 outside of nitpicking his worst flaws and then labeling him solely based on those attributes which wouldn’t be fair to any d-man
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 3, 2019 at 1:27 p.m.
Thread: Too Much Quantity
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LoganOllivier</b></div><div>Hard no from the Leafs. Kap is worth more than a 2nd rounder to the Leafs. Gudas is over priced and a bottom pair defenceman and Lyon isn't an upgrade over Sparks for the backup position. Its a terrible trade and before you say, well you'll lose him to an offer sheet, to that I'll say Dubas will move him for a far better return than this before that happens.</div></div>

If you don’t like the deal, I’m perfectly fine with that. I wasn’t sure about it myself, but I really don’t like your reasoning. Kapanen worth more than a second? Of course, that’s why I offered more. Lyon isn’t better than Sparks? I literally never even thought about comparing the two. We have 3 goalies in the AHL, I took the one with least upside and shipped him off to a team who had goalies with worse AHL numbers. Could have easily done a separate trade but I wanted to save some time. The part I 100% disagree with is Gudas. He isn’t overpaid at his current cap hit let alone with 1.5 million retained which was done simply because he Leafs need cap relief and if they aren’t getting any then what’s the point of this move. 20 points, not great but not horrible for a defensive d-man. A plus player on a bad team, lots of hits and blocks. But hey, those stats aren’t good enough to evaluate a player. Let’s look at the analytics. He’s great there too. No matter how you evaluate a hockey player, Gudas is a 2nd pair, right handed, defensive defenseman. Even though IMO you didn’t even mention the two biggest reasons to not make this deal from a Leafs standpoint, I respect your opinion on not wanting to do it. But at least know what you’re getting
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 22, 2019 at 10:44 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 18, 2019 at 5:35 p.m.
Thread: TDL phi car nsh
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>cunningham19</b></div><div>The way philly has been playing since hart has started has brought them closer to the playoffs though. Ceci I put in the offer as he would increase playoff experience on a young defence corps and if he doesn’t play shutdown minutes like in Ottawa he will be a far better player. Boucher uses him incorrectly as he was drafted as an offensive defensemen not a defensive shutdown the top opposition players kind of defensemen. I also had dzingel to philly as I think they will move on from simmonds but will want someone to play with Patrick and Voracek on the second line. Voracek a maestro with passes and needs a fast line mate to feed the puck to (it’s why duchene and dzingel are great on Ottawa together) Myers will have a hard time cracking philly defence corps with provorov gostisbehere sanheim morin Gudas guaranteed spots over Myers</div></div>

First off Patrick is on our third line with Laughton and Simmonds. Dzingle will be on our third line. If we keep our lines as is, he would be on Patrick’s wing with Simmonds on the opposite side. If we would move Giroux back to wing then Dzingle would be our 3C centering JVR and Simmmonds. If we trade away Simmonds then we’re sellers and wouldn’t be in the market for a UFA. Dzingle wouldn’t make sense. Even if we keep Simmonds and try to make the playoffs, paying a hefty price for a 10% chance at the playoffs is stupid. On the backend, Myers is projected to be our 4th best d-man behind Provy, Ghost and Sanheim. If we trade somebody away it will be Gudas, not the 22 year old. Good right handed d-men are a luxury. They don’t get traded all that often let alone in return for players that just don’t make sense for the team
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 18, 2019 at 4:46 p.m.
Thread: Sell Short Term Buy Long Term
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>wojme</b></div><div>Stop trading gudas to the sabres, especially for nylander. We don't need him in the slightest.</div></div>

What do you mean by stop? I’ve never offered Nylander to Philly in any deal or Gudas to Buffalo in any deal let alone them for each other. As for needing Gudas, I’ve watched many Sabres games because they are my dad’s favourite team and he and I both agree they can use a d-man like Gudas. Whether Gudas in particular is the answer is a matter of opinion but I think it’s a stretch to say that you don’t need him in the slightest. If you don’t want to give up Nylander, I don’t blame you one bit. As long as you believe he isn’t a bust and can be a top 6 forward then you have no reason to move him. If you do think he’s a bust though, better to trade him now than when his value is lower