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GCW_69

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Forum: Armchair-GMMay 20, 2016 at 8:41 a.m.
Thread: Facing Reality
There are no crazy free agent signings on this roster. I have focused on players via trade that are likely undervalued by their current teams.

Despite amazing underlying numbers, Severson was scratched multiple times by Hynes for far inferior defenders, so there is something not right between the coach and the player. Additionally, Jersey is desperate for young forwards, so Shero should find Yak an attractive offer. See these links to understand the Hynes - Severson dynamic: <a href="http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2016/3/3/11156606/the-sitting-of-severson" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2016/3/3/11156606/the-sitting-of-severson</a>, <a href="http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/New-Jersey-Devils-On-The-Handling-Of-Damon-Severson/159/75579" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/New-Jersey-Devils-On-The-Handling-Of-Damon-Severson/159/75579</a>

Strome was scratched repeatedly during the Islanders playoff run despite good underlying numbers. He had a down season offensively but had a strong season prior. See: <a href="http://thehockeywriters.com/ryan-strome-will-be-healthy-scratch/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://thehockeywriters.com/ryan-strome-will-be-healthy-scratch/</a>, <a href="http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2016/5/3/11578874/ryan-strome-scratch-islanders-vs-lightning-game-3-lineup-updates." rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2016/5/3/11578874/ryan-strome-scratch-islanders-vs-lightning-game-3-lineup-updates.</a> Again we have a buy low opportunity. The Bruins recently paid two 2nd round picks for Connelly in a similar situation, but they paid those at the deadline, when picks have their lowest value, and the picks are going to be further down the draft order. The Oilers pick is close to a 1st rounder and the Oilers will be selling the pick when picks have their highest value, so I think the 2016 2nd round pick gets it done. They may have to throw in a second tier prospect like Musil to close the deal, which is fine.

The only free agent signing of note is Demers. The Oilers will need to go hard after this player if they don't want to trade from the core and they want to improve the defence. He's not ideal as a top pairing defender, and I think the Oilers will need to run their top four using a "defence by committee" approach to get the job done. But, but adding Strome and Severson, the Oilers should have the assets and the cap space to make a trade for a top pairing defender later should they need to.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2015 at 1:15 p.m.
Thread: Oilers make the big trade
Obviously, the Nuge trade would be Nuge for Jones, but I could not figure out how to trade for an RFA.

Completely guessing on what Jones would need to be re-signed for.

Pouliot would need to be traded when Nurse and McDavid some up for contract renewal to free up cap space.

Cap roll off is important with McDavid, Leon and Nurse needing new deals.

This team starts with $8M in cap spaces, and then the following season:

Replaces Fayne with Reinhart saving ~$2.5M

Trades Pouliot and replaces him with a cheaper player or the 2016 1st round pick on an ELC saving $2-3M

Replaces Hendricks with Khaira or Yakimov saving $1M

That gives the team roughly $14M plus any cap increases (say $1m per year) or about $16M to re-sign the big three of McDavid, Leon, and Nurse. To really make it work, the team needs Reinhart to step up so they could move Sekera for a cheaper defender.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 6, 2015 at 12:44 p.m.
Thread: GCW-69
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Alex_Hancock</b></div><div><i>Lucic and Byfuglien absolutely address the size concerns that the Oilers have with this current core but the downside to this is that you are leaving little cap space to re-sign Yakupov, Draisaitl, Nurse &amp; McDavid.

It's a catch 22</i></div></div>

I think its manageable. This model starts with $6M in cap space. If the cap goes up $1M per season, that's $7M next year and $8M when McDavid's ELC comes up.

Hendricks should be replaced by a player on a $1M contract, savings $850K
Fayne gets replaced by Reinhart, saving $2M to $2.5M

That's about $11M, plus the current base salaries of $2.5M + .98M + .93M + .87M = $5.5M for $16M. Let's say McDavid gets a Crosby $8.5M, that leaves $7.5M for Draisaitl, Nurse and Yak. You are going to end up trading one of Nuge or Eberle to free up cap space which bumps you back up to $13.5M to sign Draisaitl ($6.5M) and Nurse (Klefbom deal around $4.5M) which leaves a little money for Yak. If Reinhart plays well, you move Sekera and you have additional cap space to play with.

It's very tight, no doubt, but it could be managed.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 4, 2015 at 3:03 p.m.
Thread: GCW-69
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div><i>Maybe Mr Hancock can give a better opinion of Oiler needs, but I think 13m a year could be better spent on other UFAs (or not spent) than Buf and Lucic.
That's a lot for Panthers to give up for Pouillet. Maybe they could just sign a UFA and keep their picks.</i></div></div>

I don't care about the return. I was just trying to get his salary off the book to free the cap space needed for Lucic.

I think they try for Lucic because of Chiarelli, not that they necessarily need him.

This summer there are only two big free agent defenders potentially hitting the market - Buf and Gologiski. Don't think there is anyone else who can move the needle. Hamhuis and Colburn are a rung too low. Maybe If that's true, then the Oilers need to sign Buf. They can't let this defence continue as is.