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HockeyScotty

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Forum: Other LeaguesApr. 4 at 1:56 p.m.
Thread: NCAA Hockey Realignment & Expansion
Way too early to know how it will affect college hockey, but <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-works-with-college-presidents-to-form-super-league" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">this</a> is an explosive development for NCAA sports:

I can't help but see the changes and litigation going on in NCAA, CHL, U-Sports, USHL and wonder if there is a path forward for amatuer hockey to retain some of the structure of Junior Hockey and College Hockey access without major disruptions throughout the evolution of NIL and Unionization of players.

Hockey, for now, seems like the one collegiate sport that can survive outside of the "Super League" structure since it already has for so long but you never want to discount how this can impact the game. For example if budget cuts are rampant for non-Super League teams how does the athletic department handle it.

The Big Ten (+Notre Dame) schools will be fine and in fact this could even grant them more advantages in recruiting if the Super League status gives them more sponsorship opportunities and exposure to maximize NIL for hockey players. But the non-Super League schools, for example Bowling Green, Miami (OH), UConn, and Western Michigan could be impacted in their athletic department and it trickle down to hockey.
Forum: NHLApr. 4 at 1:00 p.m.
Thread: Who's your MVP for the 2023-24 season: McDavid or Any Other Player...???
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Leafsfan98</b></div><div>Oh... It's because Nylander's doing well... I get that

And don't forget, the Leafs were in WC1 at one point...

I don't think there's a bad option out of: Matthews, MacKinnon, Kuch and McDavid</div></div>

I'm just pointing out the main items that are brought up to "split hairs" between these guys. It's probably the closest and with the most players of being worthy that I can recall in several decades.

The drumbeat on Kucherov is that he is 45 points farther ahead than anyone on his team. The opposite of that is McDavid-Draisatl; MacKinnon-Rantanen; Matthews-Nylander. What "helps" one guys case "hurts" the others. McDavid dragging his team from the precipice of disaster is impressive; Kucherov holding the Lightning in the mix is also; Matthews might be on that scale but not to the level of those guys. But then we can't also ignore that MacKinnon's elite consistency all year never allowed his team to slide that far down.

It is the most subjective thing at this point and none of these teams would be as good this year without these players.

I was curious about how they played against elite competition:

<strong>Vs Top 8 teams (not including their own of course):</strong>

Kucherov 15-21 36 pts in 20 games: 1.800 ppg
Panarin 11-14 25 pts in 19 games: 1.316 ppg
McDavid 3-18 21 pts in 17 games: 1.235 ppg
MacKinnon 8-12 20 pts in 17 games: 1.176 ppg
Matthews 12-10 22 pts in 21 games: 1.048 ppg
Pastrnak 7-8 15 pts in 17 games: 0.882 ppg

<strong>Vs Top 16 teams (not including their own of course):
</strong>
Kucherov 29-44 73 pts in 39 games: 1.872 ppg
McDavid 12-53 65 pts in 36 games: 1.806 ppg
MacKinnon 20-37 57 pts in 36 games: 1.583 ppg
Pastrnak 18-32 50 pts in 40 games: 1.250 ppg
Matthews 26-22 48 pts in 40 games: 1.200 ppg
Panarin 20-27 47 pts in 40 games: 1.175 ppg

<strong>vs the "bottom 15" teams:
</strong>
MacKinnon 27-43 70 pts in 39 games: 1.795 ppg
Panarin 25-38 63 pts in 36 games: 1.750 ppg
McDavid 17-44 61 pts in 36 games: 1.694 ppg
Kucherov 13-44 57 pts in 35 games: 1.629 ppg
Matthews 37-14 51 pts in 34 games: 1.500 ppg
Pastrnak 28-26 54 pts in 36 games: 1.500 ppg

I was really surprised at these results. This shows that Kucherov has been uniquely dominant against top level teams; McDavid is consistent across all levels but slight dip against the high end; and while all of them are still elite: Matthews, MacKinnon, Panarin and Pastrnak feast on the weak (as expected). Matthews goal scoring rate vs "good teams" vs "bad teams" is pretty stark (about half the rate).
Forum: NHLApr. 4 at 10:12 a.m.
Thread: Who's your MVP for the 2023-24 season: McDavid or Any Other Player...???
This is easily one of the most difficult years to select an MVP or James Norris; many many deserving players. Josi has come on strong and led his team to playoffs to enter both races.

Matthews, MacKinnon, McDavid, Kucherov, and Panarin
Hughes, Makar, and Josi

In many voters minds MacKinnon was robbed of the MVP in 2017–18 and I do think that will factor in. The home points streak and his extended games points streak and his consistency all year are factors in his favor; having other elite players like Rantanen, Makar, and Nichushkin (our record without Val is a major concern) on the team probably hurts him. But MacKinnon has taken on the mantle of leadership and been dominating this year from wire-to-wire and his play has elevated those around him even more than any other year I've seen from the Avs.

If Oilers win their division and McDavid wins the scoring race then I think it becomes razor thin margins. Putting his team on his back and elevating his and their play in all zones to save a trainwreck of a season with very likely hitting 100+ assists and challenging the Canucks for the division is insane. This season has been one of his most impressive despite not scoring as much as he did in previous years. If he wins the Art Ross but the team doesn't win the division then there could be a little bit of "he's got his flowers already, time for someone else" type of voting mentality.

Yes Matthews flirting with 70 goals is impressive but this year, while losing Marner for a good chunk has helped his cause, but Nylander having a career year and the team not being as dominant hurts his case. His two-way play helps him. I think that many writers will think to themselves that "he won the Rocket Richard" that's good enough.

Kucherov has been dominant all season for a Lightning team that would easily miss the playoffs without him. With Vasy out, their D a patchwork of AHL players, and down years from Stamkos and Point; Kuch has been elite and consistent all season long. The drop off in production in after him is stark: 40+ points to the next player on the Lightning.

You could almost say the same thing for Panarin in NYR too.

All of these guys are the driving force for their teams and they would not have the level of success without them. The award goes “to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team.” and all of them and including guys like Artemi Panarin, Quinn Hughes, JT Miller, Roman Josi, Connor Hellebuyck, Cale Makar, David Pastrnak, Sebastian Aho, Sasha Barkov, and Sam Reinhart fit that description so well.

Whoever wins, we'll be debating this one for a few years because there are legit cases for so many guys having elite seasons.

Assuming the D don't get in the MVP finalists...

Art Ross - Connor McDavid
Rocket Richard - Auston Matthews
Ted Lindsay - Nikita Kucherov
Hart - Nathan MacKinnon
Forum: NHLApr. 3 at 8:02 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>I mean would moving Colton and adding Wennberg really be a sacrifice

As Wennberg has not had a crazy season so I could see him 1 year 2-2.5m with the Avs

Cause adding Walker on a 3.7m deal and Wennberg on a 2.5m deal is doable if yah move Colton</div></div>

Wennberg is unlikely to take anything less than $3.5m AAV and even that is pretty low. He's not a 50pt player but good defensively and a decent playmaker. He also does not play at the pace that the Avs prefer. Basically he's RyJo 2.0. We are not doing that again.

Also I can't see Walker taking less than $4 5m AAV unless it's a contender discount.

So I just don't even see how the scenario even appeals to the Avs.

If Landeskog is out then we'll make a run at Drouin &amp; Walker in that order most likely.
Forum: NHLApr. 3 at 5:33 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>For sure but I got a feeling we may also see some cap shedding

As if Landeskog comes back for 2024-2025 they have around 10m in cap

Mittelstadt needs an extension and using comparables its gonna be around 5.5-6.25m

So that drops that 10m cap remaining by more than half and they need to sign 4 players to meet the 20man requirement

Could they explore a Ross Colton or Josh Manson trade to free more space who knows

Gonna be interesting.</div></div>

No cap shedding needed; just can't sign Drouin or Walker (to what they are worth) Casey extended at $5.25 AAV and a healthy Landeskog and then Malinski/Jones as 3rd pair with LOC on 3rd pair and 4th liners all at min or ELCs and we're good with 21 active players (our norm).

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/4958170
Forum: NHLApr. 3 at 4:44 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Well he wont come back and immediately thrive with that kind of injury but still even if u had to keep him as a 4th liner his presence alone would probs be beneficial</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Saskleaf</b></div><div>Depends on how good he is coming back. If he’s not much worse than before that is in no way a curse.</div></div>

If he is 75% of the player but still 100% of the leader, we'll be happy to have him back. The cap problem would be there for a year or two and might cost us Drouin and Walker re-signing (unless they take big discounts to stay). If he was on our 3rd line with Colton-Wood that would be a great line too.

With Cal Ritchie and Sean Behrens on the horizon we hope to have at least a few guys on cheap ELCs to contribute to maintaining the window.
Forum: Other LeaguesApr. 3 at 4:40 p.m.
Thread: AHL-ECHL Teams/NHL Affiliations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>LeafsForLife</b></div><div>I agree. The ECHL could not have done anything else wrong. First of all, I would have assumed that the ECHL would have had rules in place to prevent the same organization from owning multiple franchises and a Conflict of Interest. We saw that the NHL forced Andlauer to sell his stake in the Habs before taking ownership of the Sens. Second, it should have been 3Rivers that ceased operations because they were the ones that owned money. The Growlers should not have been a casualty of 3Rivers mismanagement.
Third, the Growlers had been around for longer and actually had success winning Division titles, a conference title, and a Kelly Cup, while 3R just started a few years ago and has struggled to make the playoffs.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CameronSquires</b></div><div>I agree with everything you've said, additionally, the Growlers have a better attendance in general to go along with it.</div></div>

From afar, it appears that the reason the Growlers ceased operations is because the Sale offer was not accepted or not acceptable by the ECHL. The current owner is obviously out, so if there is no new owner for the franchise it will cease. I think the questions should come up about whether or not an ownership group for an ECHL can be found in time to save the pro hockey for the community.

From the reporting Seth Cooper has done, it sounds like the other ECHL owners are not really excited to save the location due to the travel costs.
Forum: Other LeaguesApr. 2 at 4:18 p.m.
Thread: AHL-ECHL Teams/NHL Affiliations
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CameronSquires</b></div><div>It seems from what I read to be from the owner owing money for the Lions, the Growlers are just a casualty of that, I haven't seen any actual reason for the Growlers to fold besides of who owns them.</div></div>

Well more bad news today for Newfoundland. Sounds like they had a buyer but it was rejected and they have cease operations. Hopefully there will be enough interest to revive the team for next season and beyond but guess it's not looking to good right now. Who knows if the buyer and/or offer was legitimate and sustainable but sounds like the old owner will take the hit for now. Probably only the town and hockey community will suffer the true loss of the team and the actual owners.

Jeff Marek show had Seth Cooper on today talking about the situation too
Forum: NHLMar. 31 at 4:23 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rangsey</b></div><div>Where does Kucherov sit in terms of Russian players. And where will he end up. He had a slow start, didn't have the draft pedigree of some others but he has the two most productive seasons by a Russian player, instrumental in two cups. I'm too close to it and we are firmly in recency bias.

He's half decent. Where's he sit?</div></div>

Without taking the deep dive; I'd say he is right there with Pavel Datsyuk and Pavel Bure (and probably Kovalchuk); a half-tier behind the legends of the past that didn't get the NHL opportunity (Tretiak, Fetisov, etc) or partial NHL (Larionov) and the current era greats: Fedorov, Ovechkin and Malkin.

The knock that he and Panarin will face is the lack of international opportunity that the legends all have and that chance at Triple Crown Club membership; adding Stanley Cups and breaking NHL records is the best chance for him to get into that upper tier.
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 29 at 2:10 p.m.
Thread: Seattle Kraken signed Lukas Dragicevic (3 Years / $950,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Are we ready to say any of those guys are top 4 quality? They've all been dominant in Jr, but that's expected for a drafted player. None of those guys move the needle for me. Seattle's biggest weakness is their defensive side of the game, and none of those guys will likely change that.</div></div>

It's still "projecting" but many reputable online scouts/services have Evans-Nelson in the "top 4" projection range.

"Top 4" also depends on the other players in the depth chart, team expectations, etc.

Evans has been a Top 50 Prospect on at least 3 major rankings and has made the jump from AHL to NHL on a good development curve. Now he just needs a couple years seasoning/development in the NHL which he should get when Dumoulin's contract is up; until then he'll be the #7 behind Dunn-Oleksiak-Dumoulin.

Nelson hasn't been as highly ranked but showed up at the World Juniors well and has earned a hard working two-way reputation. His size has always been his biggest knock; but at 5-10 and 196 he is solidly built and he isn't just an offensive dynamo anymore. With Schultz likely gone after this season his pathway is clearer (behind Larsson-Borgen) but he needs at least a season in the AHL IMO
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 29 at 12:13 p.m.
Thread: Seattle Kraken signed Lukas Dragicevic (3 Years / $950,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KrakenTheCode</b></div><div>Back when he was drafted, I thought Dragicevic was the steal of the Kraken draft given they landed him at a spot well below his projected draft position. RHD is a position where the Kraken prospect pool is lacking in depth so I'm glad to see him under contract. Hopefully Seattle's other 2023 draftees follow suit soon.</div></div>

Considering how long they have been in the league, I think the Kraken are setup pretty well at D prospects:

LD_______________RD
Ryker Evans_____Ty Nelson
Caden Price_____Lukas Dragicevic

Evans and Nelson look more NHL-ready as two-way players and project as top 4 pairings. Price and Dragicevic have lower floors but higher ceilings so they are good gambles to take if one or both hit.
Forum: NHL SigningsMar. 27 at 9:41 a.m.
Thread: Colorado Avalanche signed Justus Annunen (2 Years / $837,500 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>8 gp and pretty good results

2.38gaa and a 0.926sv

Now would like to see him get more games</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HockeyManiac95</b></div><div>Heck yeah! Great signing by Cmac and company!</div></div>

Since the All-Star break the Avs have played Georgiev 2 games and Annunen 1 out of every 3 so this is a great value deal from that perspective alone. It gives us the 1A/1B rotation we haven't had since Francouz was healthy. Over the course of a full season that is a 27 game pace.

Annunen taking that step in his development at that time has really helped breathe a sigh of relief for the fans, and the organization I'm sure.

With Georgiev only signed thru next season it also creates some healthy competition for the starter role in 2025-26 both in performance but also from a value contract perspective.

Another Win for the organization.
Forum: NHLMar. 26 at 3:56 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>All ownership would have to be an agreement for it to be implemented as Bettman will not introduce it without their approval. It then goes to the NHLPA to decide yes or no. NHLPA dont decide everything they dont have the power ownership leaders do. And when we look at it on a short term or long term basis it makes 0 sense

Nobody, not even the weaker teams would agree to trading cap space it makes no sense even if temporary. The cap dump system is already what teams be using as a cap weapon. If it was something practical every sports league with a cap would be using it but they dont

Its like LTIR NHLPA wont change a thing as ownership groups are fine with it. We as fans can complain but owners like the system as when they want to they can abuse it</div></div>

Owners don't "abuse the LTIR". If any abuse of LTIR is happening, is that players know how the system works and milk their recovery to help their team's cap situation. There is no way that an owner can command doctors and players to cheat the system without something coming out about it later or upon investigation.
Forum: NHLMar. 26 at 3:51 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>All ownership would have to be an agreement for it to be implemented as Bettman will not introduce it without their approval. And when we look at it on a short term or long term basis it makes 0 sense

Nobody, not even the weaker teams would agree to trading cap space it makes no sense even if temporary. The cap dump system is already what teams be using as a cap weapon. If it was something practical every sports league with a cap would be using it but they dont</div></div>

In a cap dump, the team receiving the player has to take on a contract, pay some of his actual salary, and possibly take ice time away from other players; not to mention the player's life/family gets uprooted.

If they just traded the cap space it would be cleaner.
Forum: NHLMar. 26 at 3:46 p.m.
Thread: 2023-2024 NHL Discussion Thread #5: The Final Stretch
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Trading cap space would make no sense. No league does that nor should they it makes 0 sense.

That seems like a league killer right there and would be something no team would agree on for a CBA

Cap space is already being used as a weapon when it comes to cap dump players. No need for it to be traded</div></div>

The NHLPA would/should want it so they can actually get all the teams to max their cap

There is plenty of cap space that doesn't get used every year already despite the cap dumps; about $50 million this year.

If Chicago could have traded $10.5 million of cap space to Toronto for picks/prospects it would have helped both teams; but it would only be for 1 year and not a perpetual transaction like a soft cap/luxury tax would create.