SalarySwishSalarySwish
Avatar

Lenny7

Lenny7
Member Since
Jan. 18, 2017
Favourite Team
Anaheim Ducks
Forum Posts
13291
Posts per Day
5.0
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2023 at 12:15 p.m.
Thread: My Fantilli Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>I dunno man, I think Carlsson us the way to go, he is ethereal in the offensive zone. Fantilli by contrast just sorta charges in and hopes for the best.

Also starting to hear rumors that Fantilli intends to return to the NCAA next season.
</div></div>

Yeah, I honestly don't know...I'm just higher on Fantilli than Carlsson...Honestly not going to be heartbroken either way, I just really like the idea of Fantilli. They've done a great job drafting through the Madden years anyway though, so I won't be critical.

No issue on my end if Fantilli plays in Michigan next year though-Another year to grow and fill out, and there's really no rush IMO. Carlsson back in the SHL wouldn't surprise me either.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2023 at 10:46 a.m.
Thread: My Fantilli Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Well, I disagree. This entire discussion ignores what I think is a qualitative difference between Fantilli and the other players mentioned in this thread (and elsewhere). Caufield and the player picked with the #5 are cusp All-Stars; Fantilli to me is a franchise player and potential Hart Trophy candidate like Jack Eichel or Leon Draisaitl. Caufield is an excellent scoring winger, there's no doubt about it. But scoring wingers are a dime a dozen . . . in fact, I can name half a dozen that are every bit as valuable as Caufield just in Montreal's own division: DeBrincat and Tkachuk in Ottawa, Tkachuk in Florida, Point in Tampa, Marner and Nylander in Toronto, and that's not even mentioning David Pastrnak, who is on a whole 'nother plane entirely. Two cusp All-Stars (and the chance of the kid picked at #5 not turning out to be one are not insignificant) don't equal a Jack Eichel or Leon Draisaitl.

Cole Caufield has played 113 games over the past two seasons, in which he's scored at a rate of 2/3 of a point per game. That's exactly Trevor Zegras' rate over his three seasons. I'm glad that we'll end up having both Fantilli AND Zegras, but if I had to make a choice, I'd prefer Fantilli to Zegras and the #5 overall pick.</div></div>

Oh lawwwwwdddd! The rare disagreement in the Ducks fam! :tearsofjoy

To be completely fair here-I'm absolutely with you on this...I just think it might just be the small part of me that thinks Carlsson ends up being that pick at 2OA that has me scared...I think it goes without saying that I really, really want Fantilli...I'm just concerned that Verbeek calls an audible at the line of scrimmage, and takes Carlsson instead. Not saying that Carlsson won't be a very solid NHLer, I'd just be very disappointed to pass on Fantilli. The small part of me that would accept 5OA and Caufield is just the part that would prefer Caufield+Smith (Michkov?) to Carlsson.

Cheers brother!
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2023 at 8:55 a.m.
Thread: My Fantilli Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BigBadBurke</b></div><div>taking into consideration the type of team the ducks presently have, no i wouldn't do it. But if matthews agreed on an extension yes im 100% on board moving fantilli for matthews. But hell id even move fantilli for caufield and the 5th overall like you stated against so im a bad person to ask</div></div>

I'd be a fool if I bet on the fact that Fantilli has a better prime than Matthews...Matthews is outstanding, he's on track to be a HOFer, and the flack he gets is hilariously foolish.

That being said, I feel like Fantilli for Matthews (with extension) is like your infamous Kessel trade, Burkie! Added an outstanding player (Kessel's prime was excellent), but didn't have any sort of foundation to help him, thus setting the "rebuild" back years, and wasting some of the best years of Kessel's career (3 rings though!).

As a Ducks fan, when I take off the purple shadded glasses, this roster is still miles away. The D-pipeline looks solid (hopefully we'll hit on a couple in the next couple of years), but offensively, aside from Zegras/Terry/McTavish, there's a pretty big fall off when it comes to young forwards.

I think we *need* to keep Fantilli (Carlsson?), and make the major addition a year or two down the road. Build the solid foundation (which has been the direction that Verbeek has been going), and then you start moving picks/prospects for bigger names. 2024 UFA class (currently) looks solid, and I think that's when you start talking about major additions.

That being said, Caufield+5OA would be a dumb one to turn down (though Montreal would never offer it).
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 16, 2023 at 8:47 a.m.
Thread: My Fantilli Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jonh514</b></div><div>Sports Media Journalists are being let go left right and center as ad dollars move from telcos to podcasts. They need to clicks to validate keeping their positions.

Even though it's cheap and happens once every 10-15 years, riling up the general public on twitter and by extension capfriendly is the best way to keep hockey relevant at this time of year</div></div>

100%...for some reason (Probably because I looked at the comments once), I get those hilarious thehockeywriters.com and habs/Leafs blogs pop up on facebook once in a while, and my lord they're the bait-iest things I've ever seen. "You won't believe who the Habs are about to acquire!" "The cost for 2OA has been set, and Montreal is going to do it!", Etc.

The worst part is that there looks like there's sooooo many people that eat it up :tearsofjoy
Forum: General Fantasy TalkJun. 15, 2023 at 11:42 a.m.
Thread: wich fanbase overvalues there players the most
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>klaw2</b></div><div>Flames too

Us as Leafs fans definetly do.

Ducks fans on here especially also do.</div></div>

As a Ducks fan, I gotta think you're referencing the bazillion John Gibson trades, since nobody tries to trade for anyone else on our roster :tearsofjoy In fairness to us though, what's the point of moving him if there's not a good return? It's not like we aren't a cap floor team, so his cap hit isn't an issue and likely wouldn't be for the duration of the contract.

I'm surprised nobody has referenced the Rangers here yet...The Eichel saga was hilarious around here :tearsofjoy

To answer the original question though-Everyone overvalues their players/prospects. I mean, why wouldn't they? I'd say the vast majority of fans get their knowledge from click-baity media types which is hilariously dangerous...watch the draft and listen to the hilarious player comparisons that they do-If you don't have the time to actually look into/follow some of these prospects, and Craig Button is telling you that "Prospect McProspectsalot, the 7th round pick out of Bangladesh" is the next "Patrick Kane", then why wouldn't you simply run with that? Sounds a heck of a lot better than "This 7th round pick is definitely a hockey player, and his odds of ever sniffing the NHL are almost as low as your odds of getting in a plane crash.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2023 at 8:09 a.m.
Thread: Fantilli vs Michkov who add
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habitantlecolon</b></div><div>TANK YOU this is a proper answer. NOW usually we would go with such chart right? But is there any time in the last 30 years that a top 2 talent have slipped for nationality reason ? ( I mean is Michkov per talent and skill in the same mold as the chart)??</div></div>

First, I don't think that I completely agree that Michkov is for sure the 2nd best player in this draft. There might be a slight gap between he and Fantilli, but I don't feel like it's substantial.

To answer your question though, off the top of my head, I'm thinking Kaprizov (Maybe not the 2nd best player from that draft, but easily top 5), but looking back to the Soviet Union days (Which is eerily similar to what's going on now in Russia), Alex Mogilny and Pavel Bure both come to mind. I'm sure that there's plenty of examples of 1st round talents slipping because of it as well, but without spending too much time on it, that's what I've got. The better question here is "How many times have we seen 2OA traded?", which is probably more rare than talent sliding in the draft.

Honestly, it's not going to shock me to see him fall even further than 5OA. My personal mock has:
-Bedard
-Fantilli
-Carlsson
-Smith
-Reinbacher
-Michkov (Arizona).

The GM who takes Michkov *has* to feel confident that he'll still be around in 3-4 years when he *might* get Michkov to NA. If Anaheim has slid to 3OA, I think Verbeek would have been in a position to take him, but Fantilli is there, and the Ducks need to start moving in the right direction, which is why Fantilli is the pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2023 at 7:51 a.m.
Thread: Fantilli vs Michkov who add
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habitantlecolon</b></div><div>specify boatload for chart value plz</div></div>

Blue Bullet Draft Pick Value, which is probably considered the more accurate model when it comes to NHL drafts:
2 OA=86.1
vs.
5 OA=54.7

Difference=31.4, which is slightly less than 9OA and slightly more than 10OA.

One of the HFboards has:
2OA=2600
vs.
5OA=1800

Difference=800, which is the value of about 15OA.

On top of all of this, factor in that Michkov might not even be available at 5OA, why bother gambling if you're Anaheim? You're getting as close to a sure-thing as you could hope for, and you're not dealing with the Russia issue. Verbeek is a pretty conservative GM. The whole Athletic article was as clickbait-y as they come, fired off in a time where there's been little to no hockey news in Montreal.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2023 at 7:27 a.m.
Thread: Fantilli vs Michkov who add
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>habitantlecolon</b></div><div>if it was that simple the question wouldn't be here and DGs wouldn't talk ...</div></div>

The issue is-You're framing this as if it's a question, yet the trade you posted is 2OA for 5OA, implying that you think that they both have the same value (I'm sure you don't, because that'd be silly). If you have a question about who will be better through their career, the forums are a great place!

FWIW, the gap between Michkov and Fantilli isn't perceived to be very big, the Russia factor/his contract in the KHL/if or when he comes across is what seperates them.

I'm taking Fantilli all day long, and living with the decision.

Edit: As for who adds for the picks? Montreal adds an absolute boatload to move up, none of which would make sense for them, which is why it'll never happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 14, 2023 at 3:36 p.m.
Thread: Are We Allowed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeterChiarelli</b></div><div>I think it is?

There's a loose rumour that Edmonton and Montreal were in talks to attempt something similar with Klingberg last offseason.</div></div>

I remember this...I *think*, or feel like I remember there also being some talk about the league not being happy about it, or at least that it'd essentially look pretty heavily into it, because it could be considered tampering, since the trade would basically be done before the player was even under contract.

Don't know 100% though...it seems like it'd be a smart move for a cap floor team to pull off though-Imagine Anaheim retaining on Klinger right off the bat and getting that (expected) 1st round pick for him, instead of watching Eakins (and himself) drive his value into the absolute basement :tearsofjoy
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 13, 2023 at 9:23 a.m.
Thread: Fantilli is a lock
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JontheDuck</b></div><div>
1. I hope we draft Fantilli and he comes in
2. Zegras needs to be 8 years
3. Troy gets more than this
4. Barbashev gets more than this
5. Boston has no capacity to take on MCGinn
6. Cannot see that kings trade happening
7. Why would Ari do that?
8. Don’t need Varlarmov we have Dostal ready to come in
9. Probably clogging up the defence too much with trades/ UFA when we have such a strong pipeline to come in</div></div>

Just to touch on a few of these:
1) Yes, completely agreed. Wouldn't surprise me to see him play the year with Michigan and sign after they're done though.
5) Absolutely on McGinn. I think he plays out his contract on the 4th line...Verbeek seems to like him.
6) Yeah, Stromer was Verbeek's 1st big signing. Can't see him cutting bait after one season.
8) Not to mention that Varly likely gets $3+
9) Only one that I kind of disagree with. D-pipeline looks really nice today, but I can't see more than 1 making the team out of camp. I'd say going with Clifton and Bortuzzo, not Mikkola (long term) isn't a bad strategy. I'd prefer nothing longer than 2 years on Clifton though. As a long-time Ducks fan, I made be a bit jaded, and I hope for the best from Minty/Zell/Luneau, but it really, really won't surprise me to see 1 or more go bust. I *think* the best plan is to start Minty in the NHL (9 games), and then go from there. Maybe get paid to take a 1 year dump from someone else as well.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 12, 2023 at 4:32 p.m.
Thread: Canucks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AK50</b></div><div>Do you even know what Post-bonus means for us?
We pay 5 mil of his cap. Trading him PB saves us a total of 1 mil. Anaheim and Chicago have nothing to worry about. They just bury him if need be as his cap hit is only $1 million.</div></div>

My friend, I’m absolutely aware of how Myers contract/bonus works, because Canucks fans have been posting about 20 times a day where they somehow magically solve their cap issues for a mean nothing pick. You don’t “pay $5 mil of his cap”, you pay $5 mil of his salary. You’ve still got a (bad) player with a $6 million cap hit. You want someone to save you from that cap hit. For some reason, you think “hey, they (a team that we share a division with) should do us this huge favour that allows us to improve elsewhere, since we’re ABSOLUTELY HANDCUFFED RIGHT NOW, and they should do it because the dollar value is low.

So, now that we know that I’m completely aware of what Myers contract structure is, tell me, why would someone rescue you from that, for a 4th round pick? Teams that do this are teams that need to hit the cap floor, which Anaheim won’t have any issue doing after the Zegras/Terry extensions. They’re also paid quite well to do it (See: Arizona).