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MK57

MK57
Member Since
Jun. 20, 2018
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Washington Capitals
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Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 2, 2019 at 12:31 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 9, 2019 at 6:10 p.m.
Thread: Motte
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>Oh I was totally just giving you a hard time per your Team Explanation haha. I don't actually think they are bad. I think the Caps are poised to really roll through the defensive pairings this year, unless they would have to pair Djoos and Siegs with each other at some point due to injuries. I like how they are set up. Obviously you won't get 20:00 out of every guy, every night, but I could see the ATOIs this year showing much more parity than last year. Something in the high teens for the 3rd pair guys and keep the top 4 in the low 20s, depending on special teams.

I assume the pairs will be:
Kempny - Carlson
Orlov - Jensen
Sieg-Gudas
Djoos

If Jensen struggles a bit to start the season, I could see flipping him with Gudas and I think Orlov-Gudas could be a sneaky good pairing. They should be able to move the puck and suppress a lot of shots. Then you distribute a little bit of the checking if Sieg and Jensen are together, but you get them moving the puck a little more, and in theory, in lower-pressure situations. Any way you cut it, I think it's an exciting bunch.</div></div>

I agree with all of this. Absolutely. In terms of having a reliable top four, those are the combinations to go with

But Siegenthaler and Djoos might not have spots next year, if any two of a half dozen solid prospects move up, so playing them with Carlson or Orlov could help showcase them for an eventual trade?
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 19, 2019 at 12:05 p.m.
Thread: At the deadline if depth scoring is an issue
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>staytru20</b></div><div>Agree to both - I posted a similar response in one of the other Caps ACGMs. I think we stand pat at the deadline unless there's a really good addition to be had. I really like the attention that the front office put towards shot suppression and PK in the bottom six.

I think if we dip a little in scoring, we should be able to hold a top 3 place in the standings in the Metro with a better defensive team. We were 5th in goal scoring last year, but only had a goal differential of +26. If we're like 8th in goal scoring and 8th (from 13th last year) in goals against, we're better off than 5th and 13th. Not to mention our biggest weakness as a team was the PK, which was 24th at 78.93%. The bottom six should be a pretty formidable group of PKers, especially when you add in Oshie and Wilson to the mix.</div></div>

If the PK does not improve MacLellan may want to contact Betterall for help there as well. Both Girgensons and Larsson are very strong. They had only a 15% OZ start yet both managed a CF around 50%. They start in the defensive zone then get the puck into the offensive zone, while they are offensively challenged, they do a great fob of controlling the play.
Edit: I should add, Girgensons is a former all star. (LOL)
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 19, 2019 at 11:24 a.m.
Thread: At the deadline if depth scoring is an issue
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>I think Caps MIGHT not score as much goals but they'll be stopping a lot more goals against so it will be okay. Doubt we'll be starving for goals that we'll need to make a trade.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rayquaza649</b></div><div>I like this trade even though i doubt it would happen, unless we are really crunched on depth scoring</div></div>

Agree to both - I posted a similar response in one of the other Caps ACGMs. I think we stand pat at the deadline unless there's a really good addition to be had. I really like the attention that the front office put towards shot suppression and PK in the bottom six.

I think if we dip a little in scoring, we should be able to hold a top 3 place in the standings in the Metro with a better defensive team. We were 5th in goal scoring last year, but only had a goal differential of +26. If we're like 8th in goal scoring and 8th (from 13th last year) in goals against, we're better off than 5th and 13th. Not to mention our biggest weakness as a team was the PK, which was 24th at 78.93%. The bottom six should be a pretty formidable group of PKers, especially when you add in Oshie and Wilson to the mix.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 19, 2019 at 10:29 a.m.
Thread: Toffoli at Deadline
I don't think moving Orlov is a viable option. He might have had a "down" year last season, but you have to wonder how much of that was from playing heavy minutes in the playoffs in 2018, and having a short summer after the Stanley Cup victory. If you don't like what you see this season, then maybe move him, or expose him in the expansion draft.

I'd agree that if there's trouble scoring in the bottom six (which seems like a pretty decent chance of occurring), then you make a move at the deadline. I really like the bottom six defensively right now, and if they can score by committee, I think the Caps are okay. The construction of the bottom six as it stands is clearly due to MacLellan and his staff identifying that our bottom six last year did not suppress shots at a high enough rate, and we didn't have enough quality penalty killers. Not to mention, adding some sandpaper in Gudas and Hathaway will hopefully help keep Wilson on the ice and out of the penalty box. Essentially, the Caps are looking at two scoring lines, and two shutdown lines. You can try to project out scoring like:

1st line:
Ovechkin: 35-45 goals
Kuznetsov: 20-30 goals
Wilson: 20-30 goals
Totals: 75 (low end) - 105 (high end)
2nd line:

Vrana: 20-30 goals
Backstrom 15-25 goals
Oshie: 20-25 goals
Totals: 55 (low end) - 80 (high end)

The Caps scored 274 goals last season. If you take the low end here, you're looking at 130 goals just from the top six. If you look at the high end of projections, it's 185 just from your top six. Then you add in some depth scoring, like Eller who had 13 goals last season, and Panik who had 14. Hagelin scored five last season in 61 games, so if he's healthy, you can probably expect close to 10 goals from him. Dowd potted 8 last year.

This isn't even accounting for scoring from the defensive corps, where you could probably see Carlson getting 15-20 goals, Kempny who can add a few, and Orlov - who should have a bounce back season. His shot is too good to only notch 3 goals again.

All in all, even if you have just above league average scoring, you can be a good team if you suppress shots and be a top 5 team defensively. That's what this roster looks like it's constructed to do. That and Holtby should have some sparkling stats if he's not getting shellacked with high danger chances all the time.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2019 at 11:12 a.m.
Thread: Holtby wont be traded
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>We were all wondering where you'd gone off to. You take the summer off from electronics or something?</div></div>

Yeah. Had to spend some time working and parenting. But it's good to get back to my real passion of disagreeing with friends I've never met on the internet! :)

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>We know Vrana is a legit top 6 player, he could end up being a legit top line player. We literally have no more room for anyone else. We don't need to sign a bunch of depth guys.</div></div>

I like V at center because he sees everybody on the ice, predicts where they're going, and makes great passes. With wings like Vanek/Panik, I think he'd outscore 25 teams' 3Cs, but still end up costing less than he would after a few more years on Backstrom's wing. If he adapts well to the position, and learns to play shutdown and PK roles, he might also bring more wins to the team.

Vanek looked like Oshie when the Jackets played the Caps last Spring. Quick, accurate shot and tough to move out of position. I have him down for a low salary because the cap didn't rise much, and it's reportedly a buyers' market, and because I hope he'd be excited to play with a fellow Czech and a Slovak on a team with a good shot at the title. He's no Calvert or Smith-Pelly, of course, it's all moot if they're not looking to move Holtby, but he's a bargain top-6 caliber wing who shows up when it counts. :)

I'd also put a disclaimer that Vanek and Marleau don't chip in as much defensively as they used to, and signing them would negate some of the speed and positioning gains of replacing Bura/Conno with Panik/Hathaway, but they'd add a whole lot of offense and leadership, and I couldn't resist.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 15, 2019 at 12:50 p.m.
Thread: Next Year
FWIW on Conno:

I have a good friend that works in the Caps front office, in a pretty "important" position that aligns a lot with the players and listening to them as a filter to the front office. I spoke with him a few weeks ago face-to-face when the Caps were on the West Coast...

...On Connolly he stated that they've had numerous discussions about the future and Conno loves DC, he's made it his home, he won the Cup there, the Caps management resurrected his career after TB and BOS basically said he was a bust. He doesn't plan on returning the favor by crapping on the Caps for a few extra dollars. He fits in on the Caps, he has serious chemistry with Eller, and he's comfortable being a good contributing 3RW, than a 2RW that must put up 25g/40a or be deemed a waste of $4.5-$5M...that being said Conno indicated he was willing to make a compromise...a hometown contract in the $3-$4M range but with an extra year or two on it. So instead of $4.0M x 2 years he would be okay with $3.25M x 4 years. Which would take him to the cusp of his 30's and if he remains a 20-ish goal scorer he could get another 3-4 year "get paid" deal when that day comes....I think the Caps can afford that, and Vrana, and maybe Hagelin (on the cheap) if they part with Bura and/or Nisky at the draft...
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 10, 2019 at 8:22 p.m.
Thread: Nylander offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>I would challenge you to define “much” here. Vrana is scoring this year just below Nylander’s career rate, while Nylander himself is scoring about 0.25PPG lower than his career rate. By most accounts, Vrana is still developing as a top 6 forward with 60-70 point seasons in his future, but a long term contract would likely cost WSH somewhere around $2mm less (edit: than Nylander) per season. Why pay an extra $2mm/year for the same production? That’s just bad math, homie.</div></div>

Challenge accepted....nylander is one year younger with 2 60 point seasons under his belt. Vrana in his best career year at the age of 23 will have 50 points. Nylander has already accomplished that 2x at 20 and 21 years old. This year is mainly a mulligan bc he missed a good bit of the year. So math being difficult nylander at a young age has scored more than 10 points more than vrana projected career high.

This also isn’t focusing on the advanced analytics...... homie :)
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 8, 2019 at 11:48 a.m.
Thread: Caps 19-20 No Holtby Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MK57</b></div><div>As a lifelong Caps fan, I dream of them pursuing a big name free agent almost every offseason, just because it's fun - but I'd be totally okay with returning this roster minus Connolly. We had the same number of points entering March this year as we did last year, so the general feeling that this team is not as good as last year's is totally bogus, if it still lingers for some fans.

My only question mark or potential change is that I don't think it's worth it to bring Stephenson back. He's already sitting out a lot of games and currently hasn't played for 2 weeks, so team might be moving on. Let Boyd, Barber, &amp; Gersich get serious playing time, or leave one in the AHL and that extra $2mm might let you get Connolly back.</div></div>

Yeah, Stephenson is a pending RFA, so we can keep him on the cheap, I think. I think he's a good depth player that we know can play at the NHL level. He might not be playing at that level right now, but he can always turn it around.