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NucksFanForLife

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Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 2:14 p.m.
Thread: DeMelo at Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>We could move Hutton too, what would you give for him? We could add a late pick or a penalty killer to get a better return too.</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>He took face-offs when Sutter and Beagle were out, but he's always played on the wing regardless. I've never seen him play center before, only taking face-offs.</div></div>

I still just don't see a place for Granlund in WSH, personally, so I'd pass on him. Hutton is interesting...can play the minutes we are looking for, although we are less excited about a LHD than a RHD. Salary coming back is a non-issue since he is a rental, plus we like that he plays in all situations when necessary. I'm interested. I'll think of something and start a new trade roster to keep it fresh.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 31, 2019 at 10:20 a.m.
Thread: DeMelo at Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MelnykOut</b></div><div>Nice to see DeMelo start to get some recognition around he league. He's been so good for Ottawa, such a surprise. Hands down, the best season from any of the sens, when factoring in expectations.

Anyways, the trade isn't that far off, but I don't think we're getting rid of Pageau or Demelo anytime soon. Our two best glue guys making much less than they should be. Eugene definitely values that.</div></div>


Yeah, I think DeMelo would be a good target for a lot of teams, but to your point (and others), entirely possible that he is off the market. I think something like this really hinges on the Caps valuation of Bowey internally and whether they want to trade prospects/picks or try to circumvent true rebuilding years starting around 2022.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30, 2019 at 1:18 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30, 2019 at 1:49 p.m.
Thread: Per Bob Mckenzie
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>Who was Marner playing with when he equaled Nylander? Was is Matthews? It was Kadri and Bozak. Nylander scored 61.5 average projected with Matthews and Marner scored 67 projected average with Kadri and Bozak. Marner's center got upgraded and now he could hit 100 points. Nylander's center is the same, and he should steadily increase from 60 - to 100? Sure Marner won't be 30-40 ahead of Nylander his whole career, but he'll be at least 10-15. You seem to think that Dubas knew that they were equal and that Marner would break out. He didn't. Marner was more or less pick right after Eichel and McDavid for a reason. Nylander is solid too, but he's not Marner - yet. If Nylander had scored 90+ points last year, do you think he would still be signed for 7.5? Not in a million years. Unfortunately Marner has broken out, so it'll be different. Having 90 point potential and actually hitting it are different things and get paid accordingly.</div></div>

Marner broke out last year with Kadri and Marleau and his game has been pretty consistent since then. Is he better than Nylander? Yes, but the gap is much smaller than you insinuate. Both are young and have had their inconsistencies, Matthews as well, but there was a time when Nylander was playing at a significantly higher level than Marner and appeared to be a much better player.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 30, 2019 at 10:13 a.m.
Thread: Stecher and Goldobin
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>How is Zaitsev better than Stetcher? The only numbers that Zaitsev can top Stetcher in are blocked shots, hits, and dZs%. Stetcher has better CF%, CF Rel, FF%, FF Rel, oiSH%, oiSV%, PDO, TK, GV, Thru%, GF/60, GA/60, and Pts/60. All in only 1:30 fewer ES TOI. Zaitsev only really plays more because he kills a ton of penalties, but is the worst Leaf at it. Stetcher has been impressive when given a chance to kill penalties, his unit scoring twice as many goals as the opposing power play. He's also played 22+ minutes of ice time when needed and has excelled in that position, so he can play more than he's being given now. I know I'm a Canucks fan, but honestly I'd like to know why you think Zaitsev is better. Also, Stetcher has a better contract by far.</div></div>

He is the most responsible defenceman in his own end on the Leafs roster, I do think Gardiner is a terrible partner for him but that is a different issue. When Dermott and Zaitsev are together, they have extremely good Corsi numbers, mainly because Dermott and Zaitsev together do a lot more skating with the puck. With Gardiner, Jake just sends the puck up ice and often causes turnovers that result in Zaitsev breaking up odd man rushes.

I am not at all saying Zaitsev is a star, he's a middle pair defenceman. Stecher is a health scratch on a good team.

Also, I'd wager if you did the digging, you'd find that the difficulty in competition is much harder for Zaitsev than Stetcher.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2019 at 10:32 p.m.
Thread: Muzzin huh Is it a coincidence that
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>Honestly, I saw this first on the NHL and my first thought was that this website would be overloaded with Leafs ACGM teams. My second thought was that Dubas knows something that we don’t. Which means A, he has found a potential suitor for Zaitsev, or B, Matthews has been very cooperative with contract negotiations. I think this means that Matthews is asking for shorter term, and a 9.5-10.5 million deal. I don’t really like the term for the Leafs, but it helps them be contenders over this year and next. Something tells me that Tampa is the next team to make a move. And maybe Boston too. Not sure what I think of you guys losing Durzi and Grundstrom. Durzi is your second best RHD prospect and Grundstrom is your best LW prospect. Those are the two areas that will be comparatively “thin” in the future. Personally would’ve wanted Hollowell, Marchment, Engvall, or Moore, but that’s ok. Muzzin looks like he’s worth it and I’ve learned to trust Dubas.</div></div>

I think you’re spot on. Something must have happened that gave Dubas the confidence he could make it all work. The timing, that it comes so close after the latest round of talks with Matthews...might be directly related. Or he’s just convinced it won’t be hard to move pieces in the offseason...but he must have gained some sort of knowledge that allowed him to pull the trigger now.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2019 at 9:38 a.m.
Thread: The hard cold truth
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>How much does that matter anymore? Like actually, Eichel sign for 10, McDavid for 12.5, Draisaitl for 8.5, Nylander for 7, Pasternak for 6.66, and Larkin for 6.1. The average cap hit of those is 8.46 and an average of 77 points. Converting that to Kane's year, that would have been a 9.45 million deal. Cap adjusted, that is 8.61. Adjusting that to Marner, he would have signed for 10.4 million off his ELC if he was signed the same year as Kane. That is cap adjusted to 12 million this offseason. You judge. Nobody takes a 25% discount in hockey.</div></div>

Tavares did he left lots on the table. Now I don't think Marner and Tavares are the same Tavares is older so more mature Marner still young and wants to show the world that he should be captian and asking for captian money. He had a good 4 months but he has had Tavares or Mathews at center. The league is goning towards paying young players. It would be interested if Mathews signs for less and shorter term to see what Marner(camp) is going to do.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2019 at 8:49 a.m.
Thread: Juices dos and donts for all your Leaf TDL posts
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>So don't put Horton on LTIR this year, next, or both? I know to not do it this year, but what about next? Does the bonus penalty apply then?</div></div>

Next year is fine. I have to imagine he goes on LTIR over the summer.

This year Marner and Matthews are set to earn $850k in bonuses. Matthews is on pace right now to hit an additional $2m in bonuses...so that's $3.7m. Schedule A and B bonuses can be negotiated as part of a draftee's entry level contract....so next year when they are both off their ELC, we don't have any young players on the roster that have big bonuses in their contracts.....and with Marleau's $6.25m coming off the books in 2020-21...the Leafs are able to carry over any performance bonuses earned next year onto that cap. Guys like Liljegren, Bracco, Grundstrom...if they make the team next year...could earn performance bonuses...but I think Liljegren is the highest possible one at $400k....

To summarize...Horton on LTIR this year = even bigger problems for the Leafs' cap next year

Horton on LTIR next year is fine...and pretty much a necessity
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 28, 2019 at 12:45 a.m.
Thread: Loaded - mostly
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div><a href="/users/DirtyDangles" target="_blank">@DirtyDangles</a> <a href="/users/ExpiredmilkYT" target="_blank">@ExpiredmilkYT</a> <a href="/users/Flyers2000" target="_blank">@Flyers2000</a> <a href="/users/Phil2893" target="_blank">@Phil2893</a> <a href="/users/phillyflu" target="_blank">@phillyflu</a>

Van Riemsdyk, Laughton, Voracek, Lehtera, Raffl, Weise, Simmonds, MacDonald, Folin, Gudas, a LHD, and all the pending UFA goalies won't have jobs within 2-3 years. Most can be sold at the deadline with retained salary this year and next, but as incredibly deep as this prospect pool is, there seems to be a shortage in RWs. What are your thoughts on trading a LW prospect (you are loaded on that side) and a pending 1-2 year UFA for a RW? A guy like Kapanen immediately comes to mind, but I'm sure there's others around the league. If you guys won the second lottery and got Kakko you'd be more than set for the future - the depth of this team never stops amazing me.</div></div>

I’ve been saying it for a while, we need to move quantity for quality. No more making all our draft picks, try and trade up to take the best player we can. Get assets for expiring contracts and use those assets along with guys who shouldn’t be part of future plans to get more quality. We don’t need bottom 6 forwards or bottom pairing d-men cause we have a bunch of guys that will become that. We need guys that have a shot, even if it’s slim, to be great
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 27, 2019 at 10:11 p.m.
Thread: The Dubas Dillema - matching deals for MampM
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>I feel like Edmonton would take Brown for a 3rd or a fourth and a C prospect. But yes I do tend to agree. Marner is far more consistent. Most people were giving Matthews more money when he was on a 120-130 point pace. Now he’s on a 100 point pace but likely hits a 92-97 point pace by year’s end. Plus he’s been more receptive to contract talks. I think his contract is going to come down to 12 max. More likely 11-11.5. Now Marner is on track to outscore Matthews. He more than likely hits 97-102 points. He’s also not getting a contract until the summer. I don’t think he takes less than Kane. If I was to predict the future, I’d say that Marner take 10.5-11 and Matthews takes 11.5-12.</div></div>

Ya...I think you'll probably be right....just thought it was interesting how no one really looks at them as equals, contractually...when the best examples in recent history of a star winger and centre coming off ELC's have them getting identical figures
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2019 at 9:51 p.m.
Thread: Gagner variation
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>I agree, but we shouldn't pay for Motte, Roussel, Beagle, Sutter, and Granlund. We have an overload of those guys. Sutter should be gone as well as one other. You would rather trade Granlund?</div></div>

The definitely shouldn't, but Motte, Roussel, and Beagle, give the Canucks everything that Sutter and Granlund are supposed to.. grit, energy, and PK capabilities with a touch of scoring.

Sutter Granny, and Goldy total a cap hit of 6,488,333 -or 2.1 per player. Meanwhile the other three total 6,925,000 which is 2.3 per. For basically the same cap hit, Sutter and Goldy each on their own would bring back a much bigger return perhaps than all three combined. It just makes sense that Benning finds ways to move the 'fringe' (Sutter, Goldy, Granny).

It just makes sense that
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 26, 2019 at 7:05 p.m.
Thread: Gagner variation
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ItsBlowTime</b></div><div>Ooooookay, hold on there <a href="/users/NucksFanForLife" target="_blank">@NucksFanForLife</a> , Motte is my BOY! I think he has a real chance to become a high end checking line/PK type of guy,, the ones that make a big impact on Stanley Cup runs! So lets cool the jets on trading him just yet :P

As for the trade at hand, <a href="/users/Eli" target="_blank">@Eli</a> The Canucks scream yes before WSH changes their mind. Gagner is loaned to the Marlies in the AHL, Goldobin is as good as gone already, the coach has no trust in him. This is a huge win for the Nucks imo.</div></div>

Awesome. I think if Gagner works out, and stops Kuznetsov from getting any worse than 39% at faceoffs, this trade could help revive both Gagner's career and the Caps' season. The value is weak, from Washington's side, but I'm just happy we all agree on something that includes more than just Goldobin.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NucksFanForLife</b></div><div>I agree, but we shouldn't pay for Motte, Roussel, Beagle, Sutter, and Granlund. We have an overload of those guys. Sutter should be gone as well as one other. You would rather trade Granlund?</div></div>

Makes sense. I think with MacLellan hinting that he wants someone similar in age to the player he wants to trade, he'd probably want Motte out of those. Not sure what it would cost.

If age weren't a factor, he would have cap space above for 50% retained Alzner, who could probably still help in some situations, but he says it is, and I applaud that. So I'm curious what it'll cost to pry hopefully a Faksa or a Motte away from teams that clearly know they're pretty good.

Burakovsky is 8th in his draft class in regular season goals, 2nd in power play goals. But he's had an awful year, and his value is at an all time low. Even after taking back Sam Gagner, I think the Caps have to add probably a B+ prospect like Nate Walker (got a point in the playoffs.... really quick skater... Austrailian), and a 3rd pick? I could also see them targeting Motte or Stecher, instead, but I imagine they might cost more.