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UncleChucker

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Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 21, 2021 at 11:14 p.m.
Thread: Hughes
I sort of chuckled when I saw this and that was before we all found out that KK re-signed. But I will respond as if we didn't know that yet...

The Devils are not looking for a #1 D-man. They just bought one. They are much better off holding on to Smith as his 'bridge deal' will kick in right around the middle / end of the Hamilton deal. Maybe Dougie sign a discount deal to finish up in NJ right as Smith is entering his 'big payday' contract. The numbers work out nicely. I doubt they'd want to screw that up. Now, if they were "one more good D away from a cup", that might change. But they aren't. So it won't.

Minny does not need a D prospect.... Well..... allow me to re-phrase... EVERY team needs D prospects but they don't need ANOTHER one enough to part with KK. They already have Addison, O'Rourke, Hunt and Lambos. As far as Holtz is concerned... The Wild are not going to give up the 2-time KHL leading scorer and NHL Calder winner for a guy who put up 18 pts in 40 games in the Swedish Elite League last year. That is not the 'replacement' the Wild would need for the roster hole left by KK.

Vancouver would not be trading for Kaprizov. They'd be trading for "the right to negotiate with Kaprizov's agent". They already can't afford Hughes AND Pettersson as it is. So they'd just be trading for an even bigger UFA disaster.

Hard No all around.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 21, 2021 at 1:22 p.m.
Thread: Eichel to Minnesota - Kaprizov resigns
This is basically "Fiala, Khak and a 1st" for Eichel. Then "we need Rask off the books to make the cap hit work so here's another first as compensation for taking on his contract". That said, swap one of the firsts for a third and you might be getting close.

However, I don't think Buffalo would do it. The main centerpiece is Fiala. He is on a one year deal. They get one more year of RFA status (team control), then he is UFA (and pretty much guaranteed not to sign in BUF). My gut says BUF is going to want Rossi or Boldy in the deal. I don't think GMBG is willing to do that... Especially after seeing them play in the prospect showcase this last weekend.... They were far and away the best players on the ice.

Plus, I'd rather hold on to Fiala. A proven young scorer is worth as much as (or even more than) two first round picks because about half of them miss. And if the Wild are competitive, those picks are going to be mid-late firsts (which may as well be seconds). So yes, I'd rather part with picks than Fiala.

Something like Dumba, Rask, pick three (Beckman, Khavonov, O'Rourke, Hunt, Khakonen, 2022 first, 2023 second) could be a good starting point. Dumba is in there for cap reasons and to make room for Addison. The only "Rask upside" for BUF would be that he and Skinner would be on the same team again. They did well together in CAR. But I don't see BUF getting excited about that.

When all is said and done, the Wild need to trade "dollar for dollar" in terms of cap and it doesn't sound like BUF is willing to do that for a reasonable price. At least not yet.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 10, 2021 at 11:19 a.m.
Thread: Hertl 10
Minny says "Oh goodness... Bless your Heart.... No thank you but we appreciate the offer. Say hi to your folks for me." (which is 'Minnesota-Nice' for "Hell no, get the F out of my office").

GMBG has to pretty much become the Billy Beane of NHL GMs for the next few years. He has to find cheap ways to manufacture production. If we review this trade from a cap perspective - Minny is trading two, possibly 3, roster players at roughly 7M AAV (if we include Rossi's salary). They are taking on one player @ 5.5M. That leaves them with 1.5M to fill two additional spots.

Now let's look at production (we'll just use last year's stats). Minny is trading 16G and 39A. Greenway and Rask didn't spend a ton of time on the ice together so I doubt there's much crossover in those numbers. They'd be getting 19G and 24A in return.

So, in terms of 'net gain / loss', Minnesota is trading Rossi and a first for 3G and -15A. Plus, they have to hit the market and find a way to add two additional forwards at league minimum. I don't see that happening.

I really believe the only way Minny trades for a #1 C is if Dumba is involved. They are in a position where the 'NHL cap hit and roster spots' need to be as close to 1:1 as possible. Additionally, I don't see them trading any high-end F or D prospects. Minny REALLY needs as many entry-level contracts on the NHL roster as possible due to their cap situation.

All of that said, I think a more 'realistic' deal would be something like this:

Dumba+(Khak or Wellstedt)+Pick(s)

Dumba is in the deal to free up enough cap space to bring in Hertl. He is definitely an 'offense first' type d-man. Playing with Burns and Karlsson might help get him to the next level. Ironically, he is about the same age as Burns was when Minny traded him to San Jose. Minny got Seto, Coyle and a first. San Jose got the best offensive D-man in the league for the next 5-6 years.

I also think that San Jose would be interested in a high end goaltending prospect. Their situation in net has been 'unstable' for quite some time. I doubt they'd scoff at a potential franchise goalie. Khak and Wellstedt are close enough in age that I don't see Minny holding on to both of them. Then I'm sure there's be an exchange of picks to level out any differences in value.

But, in the end, the NHL roster count and cap hit need to be at 1:1 (or close to it) in order for Minny to make any sort of significant trade.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 8, 2021 at 12:48 a.m.
Thread: Ari - Tor Blockbuster
In a hypothetical world, it really isn't that far off. Granted, this 'hypothetical world' assumes that players don't have any preference in where they play and they don't care who they play with. But in terms of 'production right now', it really isn't all that terrible. It would just be a question of whether or not AZ thinks they are in a position to 'win now' (they aren't; they don't).

All of that aside, have you seen the picks AZ has stacked up?!?!?!?! Dear lord.... Even if they hit on 1/3 of them, they may very well have a cup-contending team in 3-4 years with a roster full of RFA's.... Then again, the franchise is a dumpster fire so they'll probably draft a 'roll of the world's best hockey tape' with one of their firsts and a 'bag of slightly used pucks' with two of their second rounders....
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsSep. 8, 2021 at 12:03 a.m.
Thread: Ari - Tor Blockbuster
Before we get too far, let's just accept that we are not 'living in the real world' when discussing trades like this. These types of 'massive trades' just don't happen.

That said, at first glance, this is very interesting. If we go back to 2016-2017, AZ is giving up 503 pts while TOR is giving up 651. If we use the general rule of 2A:1G, AZ is looking at a net gain of 217G over that span or roughly 43G per season. That's better than a half-goal per game. That would be huge. So it would seem that AZ is winning the trade. However, if we look at production last year, AZ is giving up 115 pts in return for 124 from TOR. That seems much more even.

While everybody seems to think AZ wins, I actually think they decline. Here's why...

In terms of contract years at current AAV, the Coyotes are trading 18 years in return for 7. That is NOT the direction a rebuilding team wants to go. They want the opposite. They have Keller, Schmaltz & Chychrun locked up for the next several years. Meanwhile, Rielly will want a raise next year and I highly doubt Matthews will be willing to take much of a pay cut when his current contract expires.

So I guess it boils down to this... From a fan's perspective (wanting to see results 'right now'), AZ wins. From a GM's perspective (trying to build a franchise), TOR wins.

But again, yes, very interesting.

Side note: Leaving Glendale will be the best thing that happens to AZ. They need to build a rink in PHOENIX. Playing in a rink 45 minutes down the road is NOT helping their cause. After all, nobody wants to go watch a hockey game and have a couple beers, then drive home through the most unforgiving DUI county in the entire USA. Get them to PHX and they will start making money. Then we can start talking about 'blockbuster' trades.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsAug. 23, 2021 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread: Min - NYR Kaprizov to Broadway
I almost (note: 'almost') want to see him traded to NYR just so I can say I watched Zibanejad, Panarin, Kaprizov & Fox on the same PP unit.... It wouldn't even matter who the 5th body was... It would just be ridiculous... Absolutely ridiculous... Not even a little fair... I'm sure they'd get split up into 2 units most of the time but you'd see them on the ice together if NYR were down late and drew a penalty. Would be must-watch hockey for sure!!!

As far as 'playing with countrymen' is concerned... I've heard this is somewhat complicated when referring to Russian / Eastern European players... Panarin isn't exactly 'waving the Russian flag' all the time. He has been openly critical of Russia and (especially) the Russian gov't on several occasions. If Kaprizov is one of those hard core ' anything for the Mother Land' types of Russian, then he and Panarin may not get along well. I don't think this would impact their play in the ice. If anything, it just may not be as big of a 'bargaining chip for contract negotiations' as you might think.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsAug. 20, 2021 at 12:08 a.m.
Thread: 3 way Eichel trade
Minny accepts. All day. Every Day.

Boldy, Greenway and a first for a bona fide #1 C? And that #1 C has proven to be durable and doesn't seem to ever have off-ice problems? Yep. Absolutely. Where do I sign? In fact, I'd fell more comfy giving that up for Z than I would for Eich.

In general, if I had to pick between Z and Eich, I'd take Z. BUT....

I don't see the Rangers doing this deal. Over the last 3 years, Eich has been (maybe) marginally better than Z. He has by no means been 'far and away' better. So I don't see the Rangers giving up a fringe #1 G plus a first rounder for a '5-10 point increase at #1 C'. Not to mention they'd also be trading durability. What good is that 5-10 pt increase in 82 games if the C you traded for only plays 60 games while the C you traded away plays 80 games? Makes no sense on their end.

As a Wild fan, it is fun to dream about this... But... It ain't gonna happen...
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsAug. 19, 2021 at 9:34 p.m.
Thread: Min - NYR Kaprizov to Broadway
Well this really escalated..... Maybe I can provide a more reasonable MIN fan perspective....

First - GMBG will allow Kaprizov to rot in Russia for 3 years before they trade his rights. That would change if they get some sort of absolutely ridiculous return for these rights. But I don't see that happening. You usually don't see 'big deals' made simply for 'the right to negotiate'. Now, if he was already signed for at least the next 3 years, it would be different. But he isn't. He is un-signed. And the ONLY way he plays in the NHL for the next 3 years is if GMBG decides to allow it. That is why I ultimately think he re-signs in Minny. His only choices are to compromise with Minny or be stuck in Russia for 3 years. I doubt he'd pick the latter.

And, yes, his agent does have a very long reputation of damaging relationships between teams and players. That has been VERY well documented over time.

And, yes, I agree that the 'call to go home' looms over A LOT of Russian players. That is why players like Datsyuk, Panarin, Kaprizov, etc tend to fall in the draft. But, if he were to 'skip out' on a 6-year deal to go home, he would be 'refusing to report' and would then be 'suspended'. Or, both parties could mutually agree to terminate the contract. In either case, he wouldn't be hurting the cap because the 'over 35 rule' doesn't apply (at least I think that is how it works).

And last, most Wild fans are pretty realistic folks (maybe it is just a midwestern US thing). We usually don't get a worked up as Amok-what-the-F-ever... And oh my dear lord... Someone... Please.... Start proof-reading his posts... Just brutal.... Even if he made a good point, I'm not sure I'd be able to read / understand it. Just awful. Anyway.... Yeah... Regarding this trade in particular...

It is intriguing. I'll give you that. However, I think that due to Alexis' lack-luster debut, it would need to be Rask instead of Hartman. I'd probably be OK with that.

But... Again... I really doubt the Rangers are going to give up a #1 overall with a 900k cap hit for the next 2 seasons (and looking to sign a bridge deal) + Strome + Kreider for Rask + 'The opportunity to deal with the worst agent in the NHL'. Frankly, I don't think ANY team would be willing to give up much for 'negotiating rights' in this case. Which circles me back to my original point.... I think he signs in Minny because his agent has painted him into a corner. He has no choice. But hey.... I've been wrong in the past....
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsAug. 19, 2021 at 8:01 p.m.
Forum: Minnesota WildJul. 30, 2021 at 12:14 a.m.
Thread: Heading for a tight Cap
Kaprizov is going to get 8M. Fiala will get 6M. Greenway goes UFA next year. I think the only way the Wild stay competitive is to move Dumba, Greenway or both. Getting Rask off the books helps too. I really believe the Wild should be targeting Tampa as a trade partner with Arizona as a possible middle man. Wild trade salary and prospect(s) to AZ. Then AZ trades picks to TBL. Minny receives lower salary players players from TBL. I really like Cernak and Cirelli.

Or, take a run a Dvorak. He is locked up for four more years (I think).

But, no matter what, Dumba is the odd man out. The man-bear-pigs need that 6M in cap space to work with. There is simply no way we land anything resembling an established center without that cash. There is ZERO chance at resigning him (assuming Kap and Fiala get signed) so GMBG may as well trade him. And, of course, the above is very dependent upon Boldy, Rossi & O'Rourke becoming impact players in the NHL ASAP.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsJul. 29, 2021 at 7:24 p.m.
Thread: MN - AZ - TB Cap Relief Center Swap
They'd better.... Ha!.... But seriously...

The Wild might need to kick in a mid-range prospect as well... Getting a couple second rounders for Cirelli and Cernak isn't a terrible deal for TB. Larsson could act as a 'serviceable' bottom six center. It solves their cap issue and gives them 2 more picks in the top 60 next year (they currently only have 1 pick in the first 4 rounds). No matter what, I think the bolts are getting fleeced on at least one or two players. They've been playing the max-cap game for too long. It had to catch up at some point.

AZ is getting a pretty decent D-man and a Center who has put up double the production of Larsson. Still, Rask is overpaid so Minny kicks in a third rounder to take the sting away.... Just not sure who Minny would need to give up on the prospect list to make something like this happen.
Forum: Trade Machine ProposalsJul. 29, 2021 at 5:24 p.m.
Thread: Dvorak for picks
I think Dumba needs to be involved in order for this to work. For a few reasons reasons. First, the Cap situation doesn't work next year unless we dump more salary than just Rask. Second, AZ needs defense. And I highly doubt Billy is going to part with anything that even resembles what might possibly be a talented center (Khovanov). Besides, AZ has picks galore next year (2 in the first, 5 in the second). My gut says they are going to look for NHL players.

I would go for something like this:

Rask + Dumba for Dvorak (with some pick exchanged as well)

That frees up more cap space than necessary. Which is good.... Because now we need ANOTHER D-man.... Tampa is really up against the cap and they have ZERO picks in rounds 2,3 & 4 next year.... I am betting they'd be willing to part with Cernak or Sergachev and find a league minimum D-Man to fill the hole.

The scenario I actually like the best is a 3-Team trade. Minny sends Dumba, Rask, Greenway to AZ. They send picks to TBL. They send Cirelli and Cernak / Sergachev to Minny.