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hockeynutter

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Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 3:30 p.m.
Thread: Can we stop kidding ourselves with Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Carleton</b></div><div>Matthews, Marner, Mo, Tavares. Woll. (and our prospects)

That's it. Everyone else is fair game. If we lose this series clear the house.</div></div>

Even then I view as fair game problem is, Matthews needs an upgrade. Then who Mcdavid, ummm yep Matthews stays. Reilly, who will give an defense upgrade for him... Yep probably stays. Marner the odds of extracting the value needed then yea probably stays. Nylander was signed to a deal that all GMs agreed was on par with what they would sign making him a potential deal but its he same reason as Marner where the odds of extracting the value we need is slim.
So yea it makes it hard to just blow it up and clear the house when you think that ownership will continue to rack in the profits. They lose this series, I can see Keefe and all coaching purged. Shanahan I can see staying but only for 1 year to see if he along with Treliving can right the ship as shanahan just signed Treliving. But both will be on the hot seat big time. Tavares will be offered a take it of leave it deal that is low. Woll, I don't see a better young goalie whom we can extract for him and thus yea we try him as our goalie and I am all for it. I believe he struggled because it is hard to come back from a high ankle sprain but his overall play has consistently been very solid.
It's too bad we drafted Scott instead of Swayman but no regrets before the injuries it was all woll and Scott for us in the minor leagues proving they were both great prospects. Scott just couldnt overcome him injuries. There was no way to predict the career paths of both goalies but man what could a been.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 3:17 p.m.
Thread: Can we stop kidding ourselves with Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Carleton</b></div><div>He's only really the second RD on the team because we don't have one. He's not good against top comp which is why he can't be trusted to play with Mo and help bail out his defensive collapses. His metrics are average across the board and isn't the greatest. Likely reached his peak by now.

I'm not opposed to moving him unless it's for an UPGRADE. Lateral moves don't help. This one is a lateral move.</div></div>

Agreed. I do believe he can still reach his ceiling and his advanced metrics has actually been very positive. For a contract many think about 2.9 million. If Liljegren stays as he is, that is a very good contract for him. Being 25 and how many defenseman don't reach ceiling til about 27 shows a good reason to keep. That being said, changes and new thoughts are needed and as you pointed out a lateral move where we get a good young defenseman back is smart.
I am not against trading anyone on the roster and would approach the off-season like that but their are certain players where trading does not seem realistic.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 3:04 p.m.
Thread: Can we stop kidding ourselves with Marner
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Letsgosharks</b></div><div>Idk man you need a shakeup, and you are not getting rid of Matthews, Nylander obviously as you just re-signed them. But without marner you have another 10m to spread around the lineup to make yourselves more balanced. He disappears in the playoffs and with that 10m I garuntee you still make the playoffs.

Do you really want to sign marner to a 12x8 which is what he is going to want?

Taking the 20m from Tavares and marker and spreading it around the lineup, finding a true top d man, I think the leafs would be much better off.</div></div>

I am not against trading Marner. Read my description, trading Marner means we need an adequate replacement for his offense plus a top end defenseman. Marner is completely worth the money as with his overall playoff performance of 50 points in 55 games and last year 14 points in 11 games. This year you can tell his mobility is still hampered by the ankle. His value is there 95+ points a year, but he is a UFA in a year and with a full no move clause. He then gets to handpick where he goes. Look at Tarasenko and what he got Ottawa by saying I will only go to Florida. Tarasenko should have at a minimum got a 2nd rounder and a good prospect.

This hurts the value Toronto can extract. I get it, it is hard to continue with the core but replacing is just as hard or harder. Toronto had the perfect chance to extract value after they lost to Montreal but did not. Ditto to when they lost to Tampa. Now it is getting late. Also the core will already change.
After this next year both Marner and Tavares are UFA. I would tell Tavares to sign at around 4 million of leaves. That clears 7 million in cap, and with the cap expected to rise another 4 million to around 91 will help better balance the roster. Marner at 12 million is only just over a million more than he is making now. It's barely an increase and very easy to stomach when you fact that the salary cap is rising and all players and their agents go by cap percentage. A player like Marner, his agent will always look to command around 13% of the cap when you look at comparables and when they signed.

The issue with all the cap issues rises when Dubas' signed Tavares to his 11 million. That created a new cap structure that the agents new they could extra by simply saying look Marner and Matthews are both better than Tavares and thus their cap percentage deserves to be similar.
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 2:54 p.m.
Thread: If we were to trade Marner to where
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Are you playing to score or playing to win?</div></div>

Playing to win. But looking at this team and looking at all teams that wins it takes both defensive and offensive depth to win. Getting rid of Marner and taking out 100 points without even an adequate replacement significantly hurts. Look at the blue jays in jays they trade away 5 of their consistent offensive performers for defense. Now they can't score any runs and need to hope pitching and defense can carry them but it only goes far. Ditto for the Islanders whom outside of barzal and horvat struggle to have any other good offensive performers. Carolina before this year all experts agreed that the reason the lose is not because of defense but because not enough offense. What did Carolina do they acquired Guentzel. Vegas has Eichel, barbashev, Reilly, marchessault, stone, Stephenson, karlsson all capable of 55+ points a year.

I never said we need another 100 points Marner but we need scoring depth to be improved if we get rid of Marner meaning a forward capable of 60-80 points. Marner is a forward that produces 95+. I am merely pointing out the fact that its defense, offense and goaltending that win in the playoffs. Colorado had Rantanen, MacKinnon, kadri, lehknonen, etc... when they won. Tampa Bay has Kucherov, stamkos, points, killorn,palat plus a 40+ point capable 3 rd line with Coleman, Goodrow, etc....
Forum: Armchair-GMYesterday at 2:29 p.m.
Thread: If we were to trade Marner to where
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>Skjei ~$6.5m x 7
Pesce ~$4-5m x 4 (or maybe one-year)
Montour ~$6.5m x 7
Zadorov ~$4m x 2
Roy ~$5m x 5

(Roughly)

Point is that you could find two good players for Marner’s AAV. Maybe three.</div></div>

Once again if Montour signs at 6.5 it will be with the Panthers. Peace by many experts have predicted his salary to be around the 7 million mark. Zadorov is not worth 4 million for what he would provide. He would be identical to Edmundson. Roy is expected to get 6+ million by most experts. At 5 million he resigns with LA. And also as was written who replaced the offense lost from Marner. Getting a rid of Marner will have a huge ripple effect on Nylander and Matthews because Tavares can no longer carry play as well. He can still be good for 60 to 70 points but needs talent on the line to get to that. Losing Marner means we need Matthews and Nylander and who replaces Marner and his 95+ plus. In half of his years he has average 95 points and in all those years, he was injured for a couple games at least. If he played them he was pacing over 100 points. We need to also consider the offense lost by getting a rid of Marner.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:26 p.m.
Thread: Marner to OTT will help both teams
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>FireShanahanTrelivingKeefe</b></div><div>I think marner may have to come to reality and accept more like a Nylander contract at 11 or 11.5 to get signed.</div></div>

Most reports have stated after both contracts were sign that the leafs have a hard cap now to focus on Marner. Meaning 12.5 max but most predict he will be around 11.5 to 12. Considering the cap going up to about 90 million. It actually makes sense. Most people on here forget that players salaries increase with cap increases because they focus on cap percentages. Matthews signed at a 15% percent hit with expectation for the percentage to be about 14.7 when Marner signs. Marner will not command close to 15% but 13 % makes sense that's 12 million and most experts say Marner is getting that guaranteed as he every year without injury is at a ppg pace of over 100 points. He is the leafs leading ppg players in total playoff games amongst the core. The same said defenseman that everyone wants us to sign will want between 8 and 10% percentage cap hit. Thats why Hanifin signed his deal with Vegas. You are looking at around 7 million on the open market. Cap percentage is the better idea for what players will sign.
Forum: Armchair-GMTue. at 2:08 p.m.
Thread: If we were to trade Marner to where
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>For $10.9m or less…

Skjei+Pesce
Zadorov+Roy
Kulikov+Tanev+Toffoli
Forbort+Montour+Duclair

…there are infinite combinations.</div></div>

Both Skjej and Pesce are both predicted to demand about 7 million each in free agency. 7+7 =14 and both Skjej and Pesce will produce 60 point combined, our forward core will still lose 60+ plus points that needs to be replaced because after Marner whom will fill out the lines with Matthews, Tavares and Nylander. That's 3 spots missing now. Zadorov is a bottom pairing dman that many predict will command like 5 million Roy will command 6+. Once again I bring up he forward and the points between those two would be 50 point even less offense. Will kulikov, Tanev whom will both be about 4 million so 8 plus toffoli at about 5.5-7 million be good enough defensively. Kulikov is a bottom pairing and Tanev is aging quickly and not as good as he was in his prime. So top 4 next year maybe but not reliable enough for top 2. Montour will command 7+ million. Duclair is a hot and cold player whom will command Bertuzzi type money and whom do you get, the player who thrived in Tampa or the players struggled to produce offense for many years prior. Duclair is at best 60 points and that's if he thrives with us. I would never want to put all our eggs in duclair. So once again none of the options legitimately solve the biggest issue which is replacing the offense lost. You think a top 6 of knies, Matthews Nylander, Robertson, Tavares, duclair will be able to keep the power play and offense to a top 10/15 in the league. That's a lot of ifs.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 2:56 p.m.
Thread: If we were to trade Marner to where
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>NHLfan10506</b></div><div>He has one year on deal
He has $10.9m AAV
He has history of making negotiations painful
He has full NMC

If they found a trade partner, it would likely be closer to what Taylor Hall returned when Buffalo dealt him to Boston. Just take a 2nd, mid prospect and spend the cap space elsewhere.</div></div>

Once again whom do they sign with said cap space to bring in a top four Blueline that will want 6+ million and a 60-80 points for 4 million. Look at the FA crop and tell me. I have looked and don't a logical way to this. Replacing these players are not as easy as 123. That is my point. Leafs need two top 4 defense to truly balance their team out and a forward to replace Marners production and losing Marner saves what 10.5 million. Next year most FAs are players whom will resign with their respective teams don't believe go a look. Ekblad, Theordorez Draisatl, Rantanen, Crosby.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 2:47 p.m.
Thread: If we were to trade Marner to where
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>guess what pal? I am perfectly capable of doing simple math.

he didn't win a selke
he didn't hit 100 points
he looks horrible in the playoffs

he's just not that good.</div></div>

Last year he had 14 points in 11 playoff games. Overall he is close to a ppg and the highest ppg amongst all Leafs. He didn't win a selke but GMs will look at the nomination as a sign of good defense. Plus all GMs pays according to regular over the playoffs. In fact 3 out of 4 playoffs including this year where all insiders say you can tell you cannot move as easily after a high ankle sprain. He produced a ppg. Lastly all ex players whom experienced high ankle sprains say the pain lingers for months after returning and affects your play. Look at Joseph will.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 2:37 p.m.
Thread: If we were to trade Marner to where
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dh91</b></div><div>You really think NJ would trade Hughes for Marner? And then adding on top of that? :tearsofjoy

All of these trades are so far off his actual value, which is a lot lower than you think</div></div>

Again Marner is a 90 to 100 point player. This year before his injury was tracking to cross 100+ points. That is elite offensive performance plus Marner is fresh off a selke. His value is there. Do I believe such a trade NO! Why because the Leafs would need returns like the above to make it worth trading Marner. They need defense, but trading Marner for defense removes that offense. These are more for what Toronto needs and where Marner may accept a trade too. Will New Jersey make that trade. I honestly really don't think so.
Forum: Armchair-GMMon. at 1:55 p.m.
Thread: Revamping the core is not as easy as we think
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>la_scaloneta</b></div><div>Jay Rosehill said he would rather have 12 Ryan Reaves than to have 1 Mitch Marner. Thoughts?</div></div>

Mitch Marner needs to stop being compared to Brad Marchand and Doug Gilmour. They are all different players. We need to focus on reality. He is an elite offensive talent period. My thoughts on Marner are the same as they are on Nylander. Two offensive talents that be be very underrated defensively. Marner is a former selke finalist proving he can provide that 200 foot game. Obviously our core has not done much and as a result I agree to potentially trade them. The problem is we need a value that helps us. If we trade Marner that is around 95 points in a full 82 season. We can't expect Robertson to all of sudden jump to a 70 point guy. Thus we need a top 6 six forward as replacement and the whole point of the trade is to improve the defense which then means a top four defender. Judging by the reports on Nylander was Leafs asked for a top four Blueline for him. All teams wanted to offer was a 1st round pick, a prospect and middle type forward NHLer on a salary to somewhat match.
A truly good team like Vegas, Colorado etc has MacKinnon Rantanen and then players like Duhaime mackdermid, etc... it's a balance and so far the Leafs have failed that balance.