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sensibleguy

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Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 17, 2022 at 8:56 a.m.
Thread: Bye Bye Bill
VGK
2022 3rd round pick (BOS)
2024 4th round pick (OTT)
gap C for Pinto to come up
OTT
Karlsson, William


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheBoyDuddus</b></div><div>Gap C except he’s 30 and signed for another 5 years at 6m and that’s without mentioning he’s regressed every single year since that first season in Vegas.

I like the premise, just not sure he’s the player to target.</div></div>


I don't do this trade


At first I thought the same thing, about Karlsson's regression, but I'm going to frame it a little differently. He had a career year in 17/18, with 43 goals on a 23.4% shooting percentage. He had a 7.7% career shooting percentage prior to that career year, and has had an 11.9% shooting percentage since that career year. It was unsustainable. The three seasons after Karlsson had;

82 24 32 56 - 0.68 ppg
63 15 31 46 - 0.73 ppg
56 14 25 39 - 0.70 ppg

Fairly steady actually

This season his production has regressed, but that whole team has had issues this season.

61 11 20 31 - 0.51 ppg

I think Karlsson is okay for his usual 0.70 ppg production for a coupld of seasons, but regression is coming soon enough, and being signed for 5 more seasons is a negative in this case.

The main factor though, is that 5 seasons isn't a gap C. Pinto will be producing his prime numbers in just a year or two. Sens need a scoring winger, and Stützle is staying at C.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 14, 2022 at 12:06 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 13, 2022 at 11:36 p.m.
Thread: A very solid team
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Kyle_Davidson</b></div><div>It’s almost like you didn’t spend any time thinking about/reading the post. DeBrincat comes with a 9AAV extension, and even if he didn’t he’s an RFA, this team is definitely closer to being a playoff team than not.</div></div>

There's no mention of a $9MM AAV extension for DeBrincat in this post. He QO should be $9MM, which is alot.

This team will already have three high priced forwards in Tkachuk, Norris, and Stützle, as well as defencemen Chabot and eventually Sanderson. There's only so much room for $7MM+ salaries on a cap era team

$9,000,000 DeBrincat
$8,330,674 Tkachuk
$8,000,000 Chabot
$8,000,000+ Stützle
$7,000,000+ Norris
$7,000,000+ Sanderson
$5,000,000+ Zub
$4,975,000 Batherson
$57,305,674

Show me a team with that much invested in their top players (5F 3D) and I'll show you a team in cap hell

$10,000,000 Eichel
$9,500,000 Stone
$8,800,000 Pietrangelo
$7,000,000 Pacioretty
$5,900,000 Karlsson
$5,250,000 Martinez
$5,200,000 Theodore
$5,000,000 Marchessault
$56,650,000

BTW, the next three salaries are Murray, White, Zaitsev ($15,500,000) for Ottawa, and Lehner, Smith, Dadonov ($15,000,000) for Vegas

DeBrincat is not the guy for Ottawa
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2022 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: Stutzle back to left wing next year cuz we are stacked
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sensibleguy</b></div><div>This is a good point.

White was given a top6 contract, then given a 3rd line role, and he regularily gets the left over wingers. He's the only centre that they don't try to pair with anyone specific. They tried it with Nick Paul for faceoffs, but Paul was such a anchor for production that White's assist totals bottomed right out, which is not good for a playmaking centre.

Lets look at a comparible

Look at Josh Baileys first 3 seasons
211 games, 34G, 54A, 88 pts

Look at White's first 3+ seasons
200 games, 33G, 55A, 88 pts

Look at Bailey's 12/13 season
38 games, 11G, 8A, 19 pts

Look at White's 20/21 season
45 games, 10G, 8A, 18 pts


Colin White ceiling is pretty close to what Josh Bailey has been, except maybe 17/18, that's a lot of assists</div></div>


BTW, after a 2 year briidge deal
Bailey signed a 5 year contract for 5.13% of the then cap ceiling
White signed a 6 year contract for 5.83% of the then cap seiling

What would have been Bailey's 5.13% of $81.5MM?
$4,182,737.17
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2022 at 2:14 p.m.
Thread: Stutzle back to left wing next year cuz we are stacked
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles5513</b></div><div>As a fan you want them gone, but it’s not necessarily fair to the player. A lot of guys just aren’t put in a position to succeed. If the Isles could’ve gotten White from the senators in the Pageau deal because he’s overpaid they would’ve done it. Of course that would have to work cap wise but you get my point.</div></div>


This is a good point.

White was given a top6 contract, then given a 3rd line role, and he regularily gets the left over wingers. He's the only centre that they don't try to pair with anyone specific. They tried it with Nick Paul for faceoffs, but Paul was such a anchor for production that White's assist totals bottomed right out, which is not good for a playmaking centre.

Lets look at a comparible

Look at Josh Baileys first 3 seasons
211 games, 34G, 54A, 88 pts

Look at White's first 3+ seasons
200 games, 33G, 55A, 88 pts

Look at Bailey's 12/13 season
38 games, 11G, 8A, 19 pts

Look at White's 20/21 season
45 games, 10G, 8A, 18 pts


Colin White ceiling is pretty close to what Josh Bailey has been, except maybe 17/18, that's a lot of assists
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 8, 2022 at 2:28 a.m.
Thread: White for Monahan
CGY
Del Zotto, Michael
White, Colin
Additional Details:
The C. White buyout costs Ottawa about $1M less than Monahan does for a year. Ottawa ends up saving a bit of cash in this deal while avoiding dead cap. How much does Calgary need to add to make this trade go through?
OTT
Monahan, Sean


Ottawa isn't buying out White. Buyouts are an extreme solution, and paying White $5.25MM to go away is just silly considering the Sens don't want to pay Zaitsev his $2MM signing bonus, which is basically just a portion of his pay, in a lump sum. They don 't want to pay lump sums, and aren't going to pay a guy to just go away. They bought out Ryan because he was done, as evidenced by his 33 games after the buyout, and then out of hockey. Phaneuf was retained salary that the LA Kings turned into a buyout.

White might be traded, but he also could stay and Brown traded. There isn't room for all three of Pinto, White, and Brown since Joseph was acquired. Brown had a hot streak of 15 goals in 21 games to end last season, but before that he had 7 goals is 36 games, and since then, 10 goals in 56 games.

36 games, 7G, (16 goal per 82 games rate)
21 games, 15G, (59 goal per 82 games rate)
56 games, 10G, (15 goal per 82 games rate)

Brown has his strengths, but scoring goals was a short term hot streak.

I've had some fun with that hot streak, quoting numbers is various groupings, but at the end of the day, it was a hot streak with an unsustainable 27.8% shooting percentage.

So expect one of White or Brown traded, but don't expect a buyout.

As <a href="/users/Claesson4Norris" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Claesson4Norris</a> already stated, there's no room for Monahan with Norris, Stützle, and Pinto in Ottawa. White can at least play the wing, is a right hand shot, and is a major glue guy, not to be moved just for moving sake.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 3, 2022 at 6:10 p.m.
Thread: GMBG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xspyrit</b></div><div>It's true that there's a massive logjam at RD (everywhere in fact) but I would find a way to make a spot for him if Dumba was better defensively at ES

And if we'd trade for him, Zaitsev would need to go the other way or somewhere else (how do you do that? Unless maybe Ottawa retains half of his salary to the Wild?)

I wouldn't give up the moon for Dumba though. Jarventie, Thomson and a 2nd is like 2 firsts and a 2nd so a bit too much for my liking

However :

Chabot - Zub
Sanderson - Dumba
Holden - Hamonic
Mete

Now that's a NHL defense (Brannstrom traded in a package for a RW and JBD one more development season in the AHL. He then graduates in Hamonic's spot the following season)</div></div>


That was my point, there's no room, so room would have to be made, and Thomson doesn't create room. To make room, it would have to be one of the three dressing RD, Zaitsev, Hamonic, or Zub. Dorion just acquired Hamonic, and the fans would riot if Zub was dealt, and Ottawa is not retaining on Zaitsev to go anywhere, and MIN would need retained cap on Zaitsev.

Dumba is no longer a viable option now that the team has Hamonic. It's time to watch the cap, and a $6MM D like Dumba won't help with that. Dumba is good, but Dorion acquired Hamonic instead, and for less.

It's possible that some, or even all of MDZ, Brannstrom, Mete, and Zaitsev to not be Senators next season.

A defence of;

Chabot Zub
Sanderson Hamonic
Holden JBD

Would be a solid starting point, with a #7D that was a return from a trade, since Mete has tired of that role.

Hamonic and Zub are both UFA's after next season, and moving one at the TDL would allow Thomson to be transitioned in permanently.

Just some thoughts...
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 2, 2022 at 1:39 p.m.
Thread: idk i think the only thing the sens are really after is a top 6 winger
"would like to see them go after a second line LW because I think formenton would benefit from being on that third line a lot and brown has shown to be a useful 2RW."

I agree with the Formenton on the 3rd line, but I'd add that Brown is the same as Formenton. Except for a stretch when Brown scored 15 goals in 21 games on an unsustainable 27.8% shooting percentage, he's pretty much a 16//17 goal a year guy in Ottawa, 32 goals in 159 games. Brown and Formenton also make a great PK duo.

BTW, buying out White means the team is paying him a lump sum of $5.25MM to go away. They don't like paying signing bonuses, so buying out a player is only done in extreme cases, like Bobby Ryan, who played only 33 more NHL games in his career after being bought out. White will be traded before being bought out.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 2, 2022 at 9:52 a.m.
Thread: Staying Competitive with Fiala Gone
MIN
Greig, Ridly
Thomson, Lassi
2023 1st round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
I included an additional prospect. Thomson because the Wild would want this years 1st, but Ottawa will do everything to avoid doing this, and trade next years because of it more then likely being later in the draft.
OTT
Fiala, Kevin
Additional Details:
Fiala already has an extension in place and I think 7x7 is about right it may go up in AAV but I don’t think drastically higher.


I don't mind giving Greig, but giving him and Thomson pretty much takes any 1st round pick out of the trade, regardless of year. Greig and the 2022 1st is probably too much, but it's closer.

If I were MIN, I'd take the prospects over demanding a 1st, they are at a good spot in their developement for MIN, and an OTT 2nd is still a good pick. Too much is made out of needing a 1st in return, the OTT 2nd looks like it will be around the 36th-38th pick.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 2, 2022 at 9:34 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 2, 2022 at 9:16 a.m.
Thread: GMBG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeyman1208</b></div><div>What do you mean it doesn’t matter how good or bad the defenseman are? If you have a chance to upgrade your team with better players, why wouldn’t you? If you had 10 Erik Brannstrom’s and The Rangers offered you Adam Fox in a trade you’re telling me you wouldn’t consider it? Just because you already have 10 below average defenseman? That doesn’t seem very SENSIBLE.</div></div>

Oh yeah, the upgrade part, sure teams want to upgrade, but you need to take back a one-way contract because there's already too many. See now why it doesn't matter how good or bad the defencemen are? This is about contracts and roster spots.

BTW, if you respond that the Sens can just trade the other defencemen away, yeah, just waive your wand and they are gone. The Sens already need to find trade partners for two, they don't ned to make it worse by adding yet another one.

Why is this necessary to explain? This is common sense
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 2, 2022 at 9:12 a.m.
Thread: GMBG
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hockeyman1208</b></div><div>What do you mean it doesn’t matter how good or bad the defenseman are? If you have a chance to upgrade your team with better players, why wouldn’t you? If you had 10 Erik Brannstrom’s and The Rangers offered you Adam Fox in a trade you’re telling me you wouldn’t consider it? Just because you already have 10 below average defenseman? That doesn’t seem very SENSIBLE.</div></div>

Use some common sense, if you're trading a one way contract to a team where there are already nine one way contracts for seven spots, what's one more, right?

You need to take back a one-way contract, and that isn't Thomson or Jarventie. If you don't want one back, then the Sens aren't a good trade partner, see how that works? That's being Sensible.