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shawnosulli

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Jul. 23, 2019
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 19, 2019 at 11:13 a.m.
Thread: Check it out
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Subbanator7667</b></div><div>Minnesota would be looking for quality though, think of it this way, Pool Party is basically worth a 2nd round pick at this point, Kassian and Benning are worth a 3rd each, maybe, and Edmontons 1st with Dumba playing with them is likely from 16 and up. So you're giving nothing elite for an elite player, easy no.</div></div>

Yeah, I don't think Benning is that far behind Dumba that a 1st and Puljujarvi don't make up the difference. Here are some numbers to illustrate what I'm saying:

Over the past 3 seasons combined, 5v5 stats:

Dumba | Stat | Benning

0.35 | Goals/60 | 0.22
0.69 | Assists/60 | 0.59
1.04 | Points/60 | 0.81
48.39 | CF% | 50.59
48.48 | FF% | 50.37
49.58 | SF% | 50.46
55.63 | GF% | 54.44
51.93 | xGF% | 50.96
51.11 | SCF% | 50.46
52.57 | HDCF% | 49.58
22.5 | EV_GAR | 16.3
29.6 | GAR | 22.0
5.5 | WAR | 4.0

Based on (say) 1500 minutes per season at 5v5, you're trading a guy who can be expected to score 9 goals and 26 points for a guy who will score 6 goals and 20 points. Not a big difference, really. Dumba's PP acumen makes him more valuable again, but Puljujarvi + 1st round pick - especially one that isn't top-10 protected - should easily make up the difference. And he's added Kassian + a 3rd (potentially a 2nd) on top!

As I said before, I don't think MIN does this unless they're doing a full-on rebuild, because Dumba is clearly the best player in the trade. But I do think that the value of the deal is fine.