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timmyv38

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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 15, 2018 at 10:31 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 14, 2017 at 5:19 p.m.
Thread: crazy year, getting younger.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>

Edm fans disagree: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/458777">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/458777</a>

OK. Leafs fans like Carrick, but they have space for a versatile middle six forward: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/468558">https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/468558</a> especiallyif they give someone back.

If C. Miller goes from playing fifteen minutes a night with 65% offensive zone starts to playing on their first pair, Vegas is going to draft really well. <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/milleco02.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/milleco02.html</a> Like, really, really, really well.</div></div>

This is why, when I started proposing Vegas trades, I started out taking three of their defensemen for Orpik and five snowball's-chance prospects. Orpik can play 19 or 20 minutes a night and play solid defense. The guys Vegas has who have averaged 17 minutes a game last season are: Garrison, Merrill, Sbisa, and Theodore. Theodore hasn't played 40 NHL games yet, and is -6, but should improve over time. Still, I'd assume Vegas keeps those four guys to try to keep their games close this season, in which case the Caps could offer Orpik (to pair with Schmidt, giving them instant chemistry) late picks and prospects, and take Miller without Vegas missing him, right handed or not. By the way, 17 minutes a night is 5th defenseman territory. They have no top four guys. Orpik was top ten in the NHL last year in plus/minus and in hits. Even with him, they could still easily end up in the draft lottery, but if the Caps want to cut salary, Orpik would be reunited with Engelland and Fleury, and Vegas could keep from getting blown out a lot.


<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>krakowitz</b></div><div>

Your evaluations of RNH to Kuznetsov are crap. Kuzy spent a lot more time in the KHL.

You're overthinking this far too much. 6 million for a third line center means the rest of your team is going to be a lot weaker. Period. There is no way around that evaluation. You keep bringing up this idea, but it doesn't work for the Caps. Don't just look at this year. What happens when we need to pay Djoos, Bowey, Vrana, etc? We have no room to do so, because our third line center is almost making as much as our star goalie.</div></div>

Well, in terms of defensive responsibility and single-season goal scoring, the third best center would be making two million more than the star goalie, but the star goalie got the same save percentage and goals against average last year as his 1.5M backup, which speaks more to goaltending stats being a product of team defense, and implies that the Caps should try to hold on to Orpik and Carlson, and audition prospects just one or two at a time. If your entire logic is based on salary cap hits, you'll wind up trading Orpik away, and neither goalie will be as good this year. I think there's a lot to be said for keeping Carlson. I don't know why they haven't extended his contract yet. I think that, like Oshie, if they maximize the years, they should be able to get a very friendly cap hit, and keep building around their core as the salary cap inches upward and UFA contracts expire/get traded.

But if they're not going to keep Carlson, they could do a lot worse than RNH, and he's the best offer I've heard from any other team's fans.</div></div>

This is an incredibly frustrating conversation to have.

Kuznetsov isn't a goal scorer. He isn't known for great defensive play. He's a playmaker. That's what he does best. RNH is a completely different player. By your logic, we can say that Mike Green is better than Erik Karlsson because he has a greater single-season goal total. Any reasonable hockey fan would agree that Kuznetsov is a much better center than Nugent-Hopkins. Answer this question for me -- when we have over $20 million tied up in three centers, where are we going to find money to pay Vrana, Bowey, Djoos, or any of these guys? Burakovsky should be getting a hefty raise in two years. Where is that money going to come from? We'll have horrible wings, since there's no money to pay our guys. Having a $6 million 3C is horrible for any team. There is no way to spin it where this makes sense
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 14, 2017 at 2:47 p.m.
Thread: crazy year, getting younger.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>I have a feeling RNH is legit. He has put up more total goals, more single season goals, and more total points than Kuznetsov, and is one year younger. Last year his zone starts were 50/50, and he faced the second highest QoC on the Oilers behind Eberle, and he still put up 18 more points than Eller, who started 55% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Also, throughout his career, RNH has averaged Backstrom's range of minutes, around 18 per night, while Kuznetsov plays about 16, Eller 14. That extra endurance, extra defensive reliability, and double offensive output represent a major upgrade over Eller, especially since the Caps decided to skate Eller against Crosby in the playoffs. Switching to RNH could tip an overtime game this year, if you don't think losing Carlson is an issue (which I'm not sure I agree with, but in public interviews the team seems totally gung ho on Bowey.

Oh, btw, Kuznetsov has had more single season assists than RNH, but RNH has played with Hall and Eberle, not Ovechkin. They're better than Burakovsky and Connolly, but Burakovsky and Connolly are younger. Also, Kuznetsov still takes 59 percent offenzive zone starts. So even though Kuznetsov has language, skating speed, and chemistry with Ovechkin, you could argue that RNH is already teh 2c on the above team.</div></div>

Your evaluations of RNH to Kuznetsov are crap. Kuzy spent a lot more time in the KHL.

You're overthinking this far too much. 6 million for a third line center means the rest of your team is going to be a lot weaker. Period. There is no way around that evaluation. You keep bringing up this idea, but it doesn't work for the Caps. Don't just look at this year. What happens when we need to pay Djoos, Bowey, Vrana, etc? We have no room to do so, because our third line center is almost making as much as our star goalie.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 12:40 a.m.
Thread: Rus5, Swe7
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div><div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>steveospeak</b></div><div>These trades are way off:

Vancouver- They are probably the least likeliest team to trade for Carlson as the chances that they contend are really small (practically non-existent) and even if they are remotely close to contending I don't see them trading a good prospect and a 1st for a rental. Maybe they'd add some players that had multi-years left at that cost, but not a guy like Carlson. That's also more than Carlson is likely to command on the trade market.

Toronto- The Maple Leafs have zero need for an aging expensive blueliner and they also don't have the cap room. Even ignoring that, Orpik is not bringing back a 2nd round pick and a young prospect. That is a terrible deal for Toronto.

Vegas- Yeah no this makes zero sense. Let's ignore the return for a second, and recognize the fact that Vegas doesn't have a need for Grubauer. They have Fluery for two years and Grubauer only has control for 2 years. So he wouldn't be replacing Fluery. And as you mentioned they already have a young goalie in Pickard behind Fluery. No they can't trade Pickard for a 1st, and even if they could why would they do this deal in that scenario?

Shea Theodore is worth way more than a potential late round 1st for Pickard (to say nothing of Lindberg) and he's worth way more than Grubauer as well even if Grubauer was going to start. Theodore is a potential stud and under control for 5 more seasons, he's a former 1st round pick and has looked really good so far in his NHL career. His value to Vegas is sky high and Washington could add 2 1st rounders and I don't think Vegas would have any interest.</div></div>



If Vegas goes .500 this year, and doesn't have a yardsale where everyone is available (after taking trades to not draft Vatanen, Staal, etc), while Vancouver is totally out of the playoff picture and not looking to make a splash at the deadline to help the Sedins at least take one more trip to the postseason (after signing Gagner, Vanek, Nilsson etc), I will eat an uncooked package of ramen.

Leafs want Orpik because he checked them out of the playoffs this Spring. They give a fourth line forward and a 2nd pick because it's the trade deadline and their GMs are drunk on excitement, power, and Molson?

Pickard started 50 games last year. At 25 he could start 50 more this year and, until the yard sale starts, make a lot of highlight reel saves, behind a team with two second lines, two third lines, and a couple second pairs of defensemen.

I like that one of you is complaining that I didn't add enough great young talent, and the other is complaining that I added too much great young talent. I'll take it. Thanks, friends, for clearing that up.

Do you think the above team would win? Do you think it would develop more great NHL players, long-term, than they're on track to build up if they just pull up the almost-all-Canadian-or-American guys in their system right now?</div></div>

Umm who is complaining that you didn't get enough back in these trades... Everyone is talking about how unrealistic it is for the Caps, and everyone else seems to be Caps fans.

-Where did I say Vegas wasn't going to be selling at (or before) the deadline? I don't think they are going .500 this year, I just think that if they actually want to go .500 in the future they probably don't trade away their best young defensive player who has 5 years of team control for a goalie for a year and a half, a time period where they not only won't be contending, but already have the position well in hand with Fluery and Pickard. Theodore is a centerpiece player for Vegas, Caps could offer Vrana and a 1st and Vegas would say no. They would have to be BLOWN AWAY by an offer and def. arent selling him for pennies on the dollar.

Caps may be able to trade Graubauer to a contender at the deadline for a late 1st rounder, but goalies simply don't have a lot of value in trades and they aren't going to bring back a potential 1st pairing defender like Theodore given his age and years of control.

-Orpik was really bad in that Toronto series (and in the whole playoffs). In that series he was -4 +/- with just a pair of assists. Despite 4 games going to overtime, Orpik only managed to exceed 17:40 in one playoff game that series and that is with Alzner missing 4 of the games. Orpik def. didn't do anything that series to increase his value to Toronto or any other team. There is zero reasons why they would want his terrible contract. The Caps could offer him for a 7th and Toronto would turn them down flat.

-Odds are very unlikely that Vancouver is contending by the deadline, they haven't been close either of the last two years. Not sure why they are likely to contend this year. And if for some reason they are in contention, they aren't giving up two extremely valuable pieces for a rental. This is more than the Caps gave up in the Shattenkirk trade, and that is with the Caps pick having good odds to being one of the final 4 picks in the round. I mean I get that some GMs make really bad trades, but the odds of this happening are so remote. Again if they are looking to contend they will focus on smaller rental pieces or bigger pieces they can control for multiple years.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 12, 2017 at 12:00 a.m.
Thread: Rus5, Swe7
Dude, what the heck is this.

You're overpaying free agents, most of which we have no need for. You didn't even leave a spot for our top forward prospect in Jakub Vrana. There's also a reason why the Golden Knights passed on Grubauer in expansion. They have Fleury for two years, and then they give Pickard the keys to the crease. They aren't giving up their most promising defenseman and a quality third line center for him when they could have gotten him for free. The Maple Leafs know that they have to pay William Nylander after this season, and having 5.5 million wasted on Brooks Orpik means they have a hard time maneuviring the cap to get him locked up. Not to mention there are a ton better options that they have in their system for the third pairing such as Rosen, Dermott, etc.

Part of the retooling process is seeing which prospects fit into our longterm future. Some of the guys we need to do this with are Vrana, Barber, Walker, Gersich, Djoos, Hobbs, Siegenthaler, Johansen, and a few others. So why the hell would we overpay in both term and AAV for Hornqvist and Enstrom? Why would we even bring in Kulemin, Paajarvi, or Kovalchuk? It makes absolutely zero sense.

Listen -- no reasonable person at any management level in the NHL gives a crap if players speak the same foreign language. Kane and Panarin were the best duo in the league over the past two seasons, and Panarin basically spoke zero English. Nobody is going to look for players who speak the same language and think that is going to make this team a contender.

Couple quick hits -- Jokipakka certainly won't catch on with the Caps. His PTO was simply to create some competition to push the younger guys. That's it. But let's just say that in some fairy tale world, he makes the team. Why would the rebuilding Devils give anything of value for someone they had all summer to sign for free? Horrible. Why the hell would the rebuilding Canucks trade a first round pick that very well may be a top 5 pick along with Dahlen?

If there was a way for me to give this a negative amount of stars, I would.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 31, 2017 at 11:01 a.m.
Thread: Making more moves
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Buying out Orpik next summer isn't too painful, if they're still able to keep Carlson, and it doesn't mess with Backstrom's next contract.

I still think they'd have no trouble trading a guy who was +32 with 180 hits and 140 blocks, whose salary fits under the cap on 17 teams right now, if he isn't part of their plans anymore, but he is.

Taking on Howard's salary to get a goal scoring winger in Athanasiou makes sense. Giving him Eller's cap space mekes sense. I'm not sure he'll start playing center any time soon, though.</div></div>

There are not teams that want Orpik at that price, that is pretty crazy to say. Who willingly pays $5.5M a year for a bottom pair defender and one that no longer plays on the top PK unit? For this season there are 33 defensemen who make $5.5M a year and just 47 total who make $5M or more a year. Yes there are other regrets on that list and guys that teams no longer are happy to pay, but Orpik is in that category.

You cite his +32 numbers during the regular season, but ignore that clearly Washington didn't want him in key situations and also the fact that he was terrible during the playoffs including a team low -7 +/-
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 22, 2017 at 3:41 p.m.
Thread: cup run, again
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Those are certainly talented players. Interesting that you've picked off decent offensive pieces from teams currently over the salary cap. I'm also grateful that someone acknowledges Jaromir Jagr is not a default top six player at 45 years old, on a contender. That price, for Mike Green, is going to hurt the team that already spent one of its late first round picks on him, but if Detroit are willing to eat half of his salary, it makes sense. As a third right-handed defenseman, he'll slot on the right side, and Christian Djoos gets the first call up on the left, as Hershey's top defenseman last year. I think they've stated they don't want to buy out two years of Orpik's contract because it will have salary cap effects for four years (which is how long Ovechkin has left on his contract, and one more than Backstrom is signed for. Orpik is still a beast, especially in the playoffs, if the chance to trade for Komarov and Green at reduced cap hits really exists, I'm sure they could trade Orpik to a contender. Preferably one that's way, way, way out West.</div></div>

Orpik does not have positive value, no team is going to eat that cap hit for his age 37 and 38 seasons without a major incentive from the Caps
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 16, 2017 at 11:16 p.m.
Thread: Caps Aren't Screwed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>phillyjabroni</b></div><div>I feel that you are overvaulting your prospects. Recently, an EPSN columnist ranked Philadelphia number one in NHL prospects. Realistically, around 3-6 of those guys will pan out, while we hope for 7-11.

Some of Philadelphia's top prospects are Philippe Myers (A chance to pan out), Travis Sanheim (A- chance to pan out), Nolan Patrick (A chance to pan out), German Rubstov (A- chance to pan out), Carter Hart (B+/A- chance to pan out), Felix Sandstrom (B/B+ chance to pan out), Sam Morin (B chance to pan out), Robert Hagg (B chance to pan out) Morgan Frost (B chance to pan out), Isaac Ratcliffe (B chance to pan out). Everyone else is either a B- or below.

I am someone who puts a lot of stock in prospects, as I am not only a Flyers fan, I am a 76ers fan. Because nobody wants to rationally talk about the potential that a prospect doesn't reach their ideal potential, they subconsciously and sometimes consciously lower their expectation of it happening.

Everyone always thinks that top prospects are the next big thing, but many are blinded by the fact that there is a significant "bust chance" on most of these guys. Just be cautious on banking on players to pan out, I have seen it happen in all sports.</div></div>

Dude. We get it. Prospects can be busts. We don't need you to drill it into these message boards. I think everyone is aware of that possibility.

Also, no one on this thread cares about the Flyers or 76ers. It's discussion about the caps.