No thanks to RNH, you don´t want to pay 6 mil for a 3rd C. Caps could get something better for Carly.
I like the idea of getting someone of Merrill/Miller but I don´t think we need both.
Same with the TOR trade, in this scenario we don´t need Fehr and Carrick. It´d be better to trade Eller for picks/scoring winger in that case.

You are right...crazy year and crazier times are ahead.

1) DEFENSE: Losing Carlson is not awful for the Caps. He can be lazy, he can be mistake prone, he smoked a lot of weed with Mike Green...and somehow it stunted his development overall. Trade him for very high picks and a high prospect since he ha good value. Get a free-agency Right Handed defenseman. Develop Bowey and Lewington on the right sides...keep Siengenthaler (who I still think "may" be a kinda NHL bust) and use him as better trade bait for a different deal. Be comfortable with retaining salary and losing a high pick along the way to shed Orpik's salary and just rebuild the defense....if Reirden leaves, so be it...couldn't Troy Mann do that role well? Look at some of the guys that have come through the A that he's influenced...he'd make a proper Assistant Coach.

2) Signing Jokipakka won't happen. Djoos, Lewington, Bowey, and Hobbs will be enough until a deadline acq. makes the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th defense a "little" more veteran.

3) Chiasson should get a min 2-way deal, I think he'd help the Caps 4th trio and maybe he pushes Riley Barber to the trade block (he's got good value too).

4) That Eller deal above is not good for DC. I love Fehrsie....great guy...fun to have a couple beers with....scored some nice outdoor goals...but his NHL time is past him.

5) Does RNH really help the Caps more than Eller....? I agree to trade Carlson...and that part of the return is a 1st rounder....but is it RNH that improves the team drastically or is it keep Eller and get a bonafide 2RW if Willy cannot produce there...?

All-in-all...as usual I like you train of thought. Keep it coming...LGC!

Why would Toronto say yes to this? They need Carrick this year and they don't need Eller. Again, a $6 million third line center is bad news for the Caps.

I have a feeling RNH is legit. He has put up more total goals, more single season goals, and more total points than Kuznetsov, and is one year younger. Last year his zone starts were 50/50, and he faced the second highest QoC on the Oilers behind Eberle, and he still put up 18 more points than Eller, who started 55% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Also, throughout his career, RNH has averaged Backstrom's range of minutes, around 18 per night, while Kuznetsov plays about 16, Eller 14. That extra endurance, extra defensive reliability, and double offensive output represent a major upgrade over Eller, especially since the Caps decided to skate Eller against Crosby in the playoffs. Switching to RNH could tip an overtime game this year, if you don't think losing Carlson is an issue (which I'm not sure I agree with, but in public interviews the team seems totally gung ho on Bowey.

Oh, btw, Kuznetsov has had more single season assists than RNH, but RNH has played with Hall and Eberle, not Ovechkin. They're better than Burakovsky and Connolly, but Burakovsky and Connolly are younger. Also, Kuznetsov still takes 59 percent offenzive zone starts. So even though Kuznetsov has language, skating speed, and chemistry with Ovechkin, you could argue that RNH is already teh 2c on the above team.

now explain to me how the capitals can go forward with this team without having to trade everybody? the capitals can't even afford a 23 man roster right now. and next year they are beyond fucked at cap space as well. These moves only have capitals rebuilding process start sooner.

People talk about just getting a good 3c, to beat the Pens, but the Pens for the last couple years had two 1C's and a 2c. Bonino's minutes and zone starts have been equal to and better than Kuznetsov's. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/boninni01.html

They will find some way to replace him at the deadline, so the Caps have to have that in the back of their mind. I agree that it's important to think about the salary cap, but having a defensively sound, 24 year old, 2C signed long term at 6m (who chips in 20 goals a year and makes some cool passes) is decent cap managment. If the Caps do plan to move on from Carlson, what else is out there that they can get back, that's better?

Yeah, this does end up with a lot of money committed to centers, but it's also a lot of certainty at center: the top three are all pretty good, and they're all locked up for three or more years. If the salary cap goes up a lot in the next couple years, the Caps can make crazy offers for UFA wingers and defensemen. So, while I agree that there's something wrong with this salary cap picture at center, can you explain to me how the problem is the guy who scores more than 20 goals a year, plays 18 minutes a night, and starts half his shifts in the defensive zone, and not the guy who scores less than 20 goals every year, plays 16 minutes a night, and starts 59% of his shifts in the offensive zone?

To clarify, I don't think the Caps should trade Kuznetsov. Hes a good fit with Ovechkin, and now that his contract can't go up during the latter's career, they should play them together on every offensive zone faceoff, and try to get Ovechkin back to 50 goals. Kuznetsov might be the best 3C in the NHL. Definitely keep him around. But there's nothing wrong with adding a proven 2C who's a year younger and 1.8M cheaper than your 3C.

Basically, as you go down this list, there's a decline in minutes they played and percentage of shifts they started in the defensive zone:

Defensive responsibility in terms of average time on ice and offensive zone start percentage:
1st: Backstrom: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/backsni02.html
2nd: RNH: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/n/nugenry01.html

t3rd: Bonino: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/boninni01.html
t3rd: Kuznetsov: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kuzneev01.html

4th: Eller: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/e/ellerla01.html

So, to win a championship, ideally, the Caps would keep Carlson, and find a way to add a player like RNH at the deadline. Since that won't happen, what are the other RHD options at the trade deadline? I'm sure someone has already graphed this stuff out, and included the rest of the centers in the league... I'm just throwing something together off the cuff.

Leafs aren't trade for Eller for Carrick just for cap reasons and also the Leafs need all the Dman, they can get. It's the same with the Caps, they need Carlson this year, not a 6m centre. Don't worry about Carlson's UFA status, Come TDL, there might be pieces the Caps could add but till then...stay the course.

I don't see any of these trades (outside of Choney) making sense for the other team.

Vegas- There is some value here for Vegas depending on how they view JS, but I think Miller alone would bring back more than this. Stephenson is an okay prospect, but not really someone that Vegas prob. has an interest in as they are full of bottom 6 center types, and 23-25 year old guys with a little upside. Maybe if he had proven himself on the wing, but I just don't see it. Adam Carlsson I'm sure has no real value to Vegas. I don't see Vegas trading their likely RH 1st pair defender who is under control for 3 more years without a serious pick or prospect added to JS.

Toronto- The Maple Leafs are filled with centers and are thin on defensemen, no way they trade a cheap, controllable contract for a rental like Eller who doesn't even fill a need.

Edmonton- I could see the Oilers interested in Carlson via a trade, and he should net the Caps a 1st and maybe another pick or solid prospect. I don't see any sort of scenario where the Oilers would do a sign and trade involving RNH. For one thing, why should the Oilers pay for years that Carlson isn't actually already controlled, and two why give up RNH now if they don't have to (they will need to trade him or someone else in the offseason). The other reason why I don't think they would do a sign and trade is simply that Carlson is too expensive to them. They can't afford to pay him that money unless they move some additional serious cap (not counting RNH). Maybe during the offseason they'd find away to clear the cap space and pursue (or in this case re-sign) Carlson, but unless they make a separate deal at the deadline this would paint them into a bad corner.

Your evaluations of RNH to Kuznetsov are crap. Kuzy spent a lot more time in the KHL.

You're overthinking this far too much. 6 million for a third line center means the rest of your team is going to be a lot weaker. Period. There is no way around that evaluation. You keep bringing up this idea, but it doesn't work for the Caps. Don't just look at this year. What happens when we need to pay Djoos, Bowey, Vrana, etc? We have no room to do so, because our third line center is almost making as much as our star goalie.

Actually, I got rid of two core expiring UFA contracts, leaving just Jay Beagle to re-sign next summer, and I've got his 24 year old potential replacement skating on his right wing. The guys I added are all 25 years old or younger, and none is UFA in the next four years, depending how the team negotiates with them... So, if you had any idea what you were talking about, we could have a more interesting conversation.

I'm pursuing this logic because MacLellan had a terrible summer this year, losing three out of four UFAs, and signing one and an RFA to almost a hundred million dollars, and eternity. I'd hate to see what kind of deal Carlson gets out of MacLellan, so I think the Caps should think seriously about avoiding such a scenario.

In the above scenario, if Beagle and Orpik walk, the Caps have at least nine million to distribute in raises between Burakovsky, Connolly, and, if RNH and Kuznetsov haven't taken his spot a year later, and the Caps aren't looking to trade him, Backstrom. If the Cap goes up in the next two years beyond the escalator, they can divide that space among the defensmen they keep.

I think the Caps currently have the best defensive coaches in the NHL, and giving them only one or two defensemen under 30 to work with would be terrible asset management.

Edm fans disagree: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/458777

OK. Leafs fans like Carrick, but they have space for a versatile middle six forward: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/468558 especiallyif they give someone back.

If C. Miller goes from playing fifteen minutes a night with 65% offensive zone starts to playing on their first pair, Vegas is going to draft really well. https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/m/milleco02.html Like, really, really, really well.

Edmonton fans aren't thinking about the cap. Once that McDavid extension kicks in, there are going to be a ton of issues with the team fitting under the cap.

This is why, when I started proposing Vegas trades, I started out taking three of their defensemen for Orpik and five snowball's-chance prospects. Orpik can play 19 or 20 minutes a night and play solid defense. The guys Vegas has who have averaged 17 minutes a game last season are: Garrison, Merrill, Sbisa, and Theodore. Theodore hasn't played 40 NHL games yet, and is -6, but should improve over time. Still, I'd assume Vegas keeps those four guys to try to keep their games close this season, in which case the Caps could offer Orpik (to pair with Schmidt, giving them instant chemistry) late picks and prospects, and take Miller without Vegas missing him, right handed or not. By the way, 17 minutes a night is 5th defenseman territory. They have no top four guys. Orpik was top ten in the NHL last year in plus/minus and in hits. Even with him, they could still easily end up in the draft lottery, but if the Caps want to cut salary, Orpik would be reunited with Engelland and Fleury, and Vegas could keep from getting blown out a lot.




Well, in terms of defensive responsibility and single-season goal scoring, the third best center would be making two million more than the star goalie, but the star goalie got the same save percentage and goals against average last year as his 1.5M backup, which speaks more to goaltending stats being a product of team defense, and implies that the Caps should try to hold on to Orpik and Carlson, and audition prospects just one or two at a time. If your entire logic is based on salary cap hits, you'll wind up trading Orpik away, and neither goalie will be as good this year. I think there's a lot to be said for keeping Carlson. I don't know why they haven't extended his contract yet. I think that, like Oshie, if they maximize the years, they should be able to get a very friendly cap hit, and keep building around their core as the salary cap inches upward and UFA contracts expire/get traded.

But if they're not going to keep Carlson, they could do a lot worse than RNH, and he's the best offer I've heard from any other team's fans.

This is an incredibly frustrating conversation to have.

Kuznetsov isn't a goal scorer. He isn't known for great defensive play. He's a playmaker. That's what he does best. RNH is a completely different player. By your logic, we can say that Mike Green is better than Erik Karlsson because he has a greater single-season goal total. Any reasonable hockey fan would agree that Kuznetsov is a much better center than Nugent-Hopkins. Answer this question for me -- when we have over $20 million tied up in three centers, where are we going to find money to pay Vrana, Bowey, Djoos, or any of these guys? Burakovsky should be getting a hefty raise in two years. Where is that money going to come from? We'll have horrible wings, since there's no money to pay our guys. Having a $6 million 3C is horrible for any team. There is no way to spin it where this makes sense

You'd think so, except that they're ten million under the cap already, with a bunch of expiring UFA contracts, and the above link is to a roster I made to ask them if it worked. They told me I overpaid Maroon, and some of them would let him walk, but they gave it five stars.

True. Kuznetsov plays a different role. An important role. The Caps should keep him around, even though they massively overpaid him this summer (and yes, they had reasons, and yes, in a few years, it could look like a good deal, if he starts playing all the power play time and all the offensive zone minutes that he's capable of, and starts playing slightly better defense). The last time NHL teams spent up to and over seventy five million dollars a year on player salaries, there was a pretty good team with 8.5 million tied up in two bottom six forwards: http://a.espncdn.com/nhl/news/2001/0821/1242288.html They won a cup right away. http://www.ushockeyhalloffame.com/page/show/833020-brett-hull

The last two years, the Stanley Cup Champion had 6.8M in cap space tied up in a 2nd line caliber player who played on their third line. You may remember him from the collective nightmare we called the second round of the playoffs the last two years. Phil Kessel? Hagelin gets 4M. https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/penguins

I'm sorry you're feeling frustrated. I'd love to see more different ideas about how the Caps can beat the Penguins.

I'd love to see Carlson sign for forty over eight and stay in Washington, while leaving them plenty of cap space to improve around him.

If he's bored of the scene, then I'd love to not watch the Caps give up the best UFA defenseman two summers in a row, to say nothing of three out of four. In general, great teams let the players they can't afford slide off like it's not a big deal, but at times, teams manage to sell at the deadline and then still contend, and that's pretty neat, when they can. I think the Caps are in that position, and they should use it to build more forward depth, since having the best defense in the league and the best goalie didn't beat Pittsburgh, and the Caps already have a better top six than Pit. Adding a middling first overall pick who is still improving and becoming a two way player could help. RNH doesn't make quite as many highlight reel passes as Kuznetsov. He's not quite as creative. He's not as sneaky. But he's still pretty fun to watch, and unlike Eller, he's as much of a scoring threat as Phil Kessel is anymore, and at twenty-four, still getting better.

The Caps are fine to wait on this until the deadline. That gives them more salary cap room to add another rental defenseman. It's not a rush. But if they can't beat the Pens by building from the net out, then maybe they should try to emulate the Penguins' construction by having two first lines and a second.

I mean, is the goal to have the most normal hockey team in all of hockey, or to win the Stanley Cup? So if paying 10M for two third liners wins Cups, then the Caps should absolutely take this trade... but actually that's ridiculous. You win hockey games with good hockey players, not with their contracts. The contracts are almost random sometimes, and then it becomes a puzzle to put together a good team within those constraints. If you want to build a great team for one season, you sign cheap UFAs that have been overlooked, and trade a lot of guys for one good player on a low contract. That's what the Caps did when they signed Williams and traded for Oshie.

If you want to stay good for a long time, you can take on some unappealing contracts for other teams' spare parts who fit your plans, in order to get draft picks.

If the Caps view Carlson as a spare part who will leave in free agency, they should find a way to broker a deal with him and a new club, and get a good player back out of the bargain. An Edmonton fan suggested this trade. I think a Toronto fan offered Bozak and Carrick. Between the two, I like the Edmonton fanbase's offer. Have you seen anything else for Carlson on here? Do you care to toss out a few spitball ideas of your own?

RNH eats more minutes than Kessel, is stronger defensively, and scores at almost as high a rate.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/B6GHKX82K?:display_count=yes

Eller has better shots for/shots against statistics, but plays fewer minutes and, as noted above, starts a majority of his shifts in the offensive zone, making that shot differential pretty much expected.

RNH gets slightly more goals per ice time than Eller and a whole, whole lot more assists per ice time.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/PHR26D5D7?:display_count=yes

You're absolutely right that Kuznetsov is a playmaker! Backstrom's not too bad, either. If we couldn't tell by watching them, here's a graph:

https://public.tableau.com/shared/23QJHRKMG?:display_count=yes

And this is why the Penguins can stick rookies and cast-offs on the wings, and still have two pretty good top lines:

https://public.tableau.com/shared/FP2MJH825?:display_count=yes

....and that totally doesn't work, with the share button. But you can make your own thumbnail comparison graphs here: http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com/ Have fun. Hope you feel less frustrated. Drop the puck!

The last 2 deals are both bad for the Caps. RNH is good offensively but getting him leaves the Caps with only 1 PK center. Better to keep Eller and Carlson - Carrick isn't good either. Getting Merrick and Miller would lessen the sting of losing Carlson, but RNH in exchange is a bad move.

I agree that Carrick is no all star. I was just trying to balance the salary cap, and Caps fans get mad on here if you salary Dump Orpik without throwing in Ovechkin, Backstrom, and a new bicycle. I agree that Eller for Carrick is a terrible trade. What's a better one that brings back a right handed defenseman?

But I would love to see some statistical evidence that RNH isn't a better defensive center than Eller.

RNH plays half his shifts starting in the defensive zone, and plays against the other teams' top lines, and plays 17 minutes a night. You know who does all those things on the Caps? It isn't Eller. It starts with a "B," actually. Eller plays 13 minutes a night, with 55% of his shifts starting in the offensive zone.
Here: let's make a table:

Some defensive stats from last year, to show where these centers started on the ice, and which way most of the shots went while they were out there (and also how much time they played, because hockey is hard work, and most players do better in fewer minutes).

Name minutes (rounded) offensive zone starts corsi for % Percent difference they made
Backstrom 18 53% 51% -2
RNH 18 50 50 0
Beagle 14 31 45 +14
Eller 14 55 53 -2

RNH is playing first line minutes. An article on the Oilers says he faced the second toughest competition of anyone on their team, but I can't find QoC rankings. Anybody? Buehler?
Eller has five short handed goals in his career, one last year. Beagle has one last year or ever. RNH doesn't have any yet, but he has 22 goals and 68 assists on the power play, which might make him a bit of a playmaker. Backstrom has 58 and 293. Kuznetsov has 12 and 35. But, I agree, that's in fewer seasons. Still, can you have too many good power play centers locked up to reasonable long term contracts? Oh, and Eller has eight of each, but only got one assist in his Washington power play time last year.

That 53% corsi for gets Eller ranked as a really good defender on some sites, but when you contextualize that number last year with his zone starts, it makes him look a little bit less good than whoever he was playing against

I'd bring up Boyd or Stephenson for the second penalty kill unit, accept that special teams don't help when refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs, and look to load up on even strength offense and endurance to be able to win overtime games. Eller has averaged up to 15 minutes and change in a year. RNH has averaged up to 20:48, two years ago, at 22, before McDavid took over. He puts up goals and assists at a higher rate than Eller, and for more time. And if they each blow up for thirty goals this coming year, RNH will be cheaper next year. But, honestly, which one of them is more likely to do that?



Also, I read that RNH played against tougher competition, statistically, than any other Oilers center, last year. I would bet, although I don't know where to find the numbers for QoC, that the Caps centers from best to works rank: Backstrom, Beagle, Eller, Kuznetsov. Thoughts?



RNH: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/n/nugenry01.html
Eller: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/e/ellerla01.html
Backstrom: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/backsni02.html

Of course, I just found one good reason why the Caps might not want to try this: https://www.nhl.com/oilers/stats/playoffs

Eller had more playoff points. Letestu had way more playoff points.