steveospeak

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Forum: Armchair-GMAug 3, 2018 at 5:29
Thread: Rebuild
I absolutely think that Ottawa should go into full rebuild mode and should definitely trade away their impending FAs and maybe even some controllable guys as well. That being said I don't totally understand your deals:

1. Karlsson trade- I get that Heiskanan is one of the top prospects in the NHL and just 19 years old, but this seems like the weakest return of the 3 impending FAs. While Heiskanan is a top prospect, there is also the most uncertainty with him as well, as he's yet to play in the NHL. With Faksa as the only other piece this feels kind of like a soft deal, especially compared to the other impending FAs who I think have less value on the trade market (if we are assuming they are all signing extensions).

2. Duchene trade- Duchene is a good center and an upgrade over Wennberg, but adding in both Milano and a 1st seems like too much. Sure an extension is part of the deal, but the Blue Jackets are giving up quite a bit for a guy who would be set to be a FA otherwise. Wennberg's contract may be a bit underwater, but he's shown promise and is still pretty young and Milano could have a very bright future at a cheap price. Add in the first and this looks like a lot for CBJ to give up, esp. since it probably hurts their postseason hopes this season not helps them (and going forward).

3. Stone & Ryan trade- Even ignoring Ryan's negative value for a minute, giving up Tuch, Miller and a 1st for Stone is quite a bit. Sure Stone is a really good winger and he should be an effective scorer for years to come, but he's also going to get paid big time. He might be looking at an $8-9.5M a year salary range (probably would take the high end to get him to forego UFA) for 7 or 8 years. Vegas would be giving up 4 years of Miller on a pretty favorable deal and 5 or 6 years of Tuch's team control, the first few of which will be cheap. That just doesn't really make sense and again would look to hurt Vegas' playoff hopes. On top of that they have to take on the terrible Bobby Ryan contract.

4. Ceci trade- This I don't get at all, Ceci is a good defenseman with two years of team control remaining and you trade him for 1 year of Brock Nelson. Unless you meant to extend Nelson long term I don't get it. The Senators will be bad this year so Nelson would be a waste.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 26, 2018 at 12:34
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 26, 2018 at 12:18
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 26, 2018 at 11:55
Thread: Kessel Trade
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 8:37
Thread: Kessel Trade
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 8:05
Thread: Kessel Trade
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ClockReads2113</b></div><div>1. Kessel won't get close to 90 points again, ever. Last season was a fluke. He's still great just won't get there again.
2. Kessel is only going to get worse, he's past his prime. Yeah sure, maybe he'll continue to get 70 points the next season or 2 but after that it's going down.
3. Poolparty will be way more than 50-60 point player. If he wasn't in EDM he'd probably already be hitting those numbers. He's only 20, he'll easily hit 80 points at least a 5 times (assuming EDM doesn't ruin another great player).
4. No way in hell will Kessel out score Poolparty over the next 10 years.</div></div>

Well yeah scoring 90 points isn't easy, few players ever hit it once, much less multiple times. It's also typically harder for non-centers. But Kessel is not past his prime, he's still in the middle of it. There is no reason to suggest he won't be a 60-80 point player for the next 4 seasons he's under control at a reduced rate. Beyond that he still could challenge for 60 points and should still be productive in the 50 point range. Kessel has such a good shot that if he wants to he can be an effective weapon late into his 30's. He might see some ice time decrease, but he should be a sniper and PP ace for years to come. So yeah there is a pretty good chance if he's playing into his late 30's that he'd outscore JP over that 10 year window.

I like JP's potential and upside, but he's clearly not there yet. Maybe it clicks this year, but it could be a slower process. It's impossible to know. He might take a couple of years to really breakout if he does.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 8:00
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>I'd suspect that all of Tom Wilson's power play time came in the last third of the year last year, and that before that he didn't get any, because he wasn't thought of as an offensive contributor. A lot of guys on here think that power plays are easy, and that even strength is comparatively challening, so if Tom Wilson at 24 is as good at even strength offense as Mikko Koivu is at 35 years old, then the way to get Tom Wilson to be as good at power play offense at 25 as Koivu at 36 is to put Tom Wilson on a power play.

It's definitely the centers. Since Pittsburgh won with depth at center, teams are loading up at center. Wilson would also be 44th among listed left wings in points. He's a top-six offensive guy by even strength points which are the hard ones to get. He kills penalties well enough to win a Stanley Cup. The power plays will come, and Koivu will retire after two years. Comparing the remaining two expensive years on his contract in which he can be expected to decline to obsolescence to Tom WIlson's couple more seasons of restricted free agency, during which he likely agrees to an eight year extension doesn't make sense to me.

The other guy who might take some faceoffs for the Caps is Burakovsky, who finally got the hang of them last year, but played center a bit as a rookie.</div></div>

Power Plays are definitely not easy, we typically see the best players/teams have better power play production. The Caps finished 21st in 5 on 4 PP time, but were 9th in goals. Toronto was dead last in 5 on 4 minutes but Tied for 6th in 5 on 4 goals. Ability matters on the PP as well as even strength. It's definitely not a matter of just adding a new guy into the PP and expecting that the production will be similar. Odds are that even with the 10 year age increase Koivu was score more points over the next 2 years than Wilson. Also he plays center and plays both the PP and the PK.

I don't see Wilson as a top 6 forward on many teams, maybe I'm wrong but even with this point outbreak he's more of a 3rd line guy and that assumes he can keep the production up. At best he's 2nd/3rd line guy who bounces back and forth depending on match-up and chemistry. Kind of like how the Penguins used Hagelin last year, though that is bit different b/c a lot of that was to pair him with Hornqvist and the Pens like how his speed can disrupt defenses even if he's not adding point totals.

Both Koivu and Wilson are under control for 2 more years. Yes after those 2 years Koivu is likely done (or just hanging on) where as Wilson should have another 5-10 years of play in him. But those years don't come attached, the Wild would have to re-sign him and who knows if he will want an extension, they can't count on that. And the Wild shouldn't even consider a massive 8 year term for a guy like Wilson. That just doesn't happen for players like him.

Again though this isn't really about Koivu b/c I wouldn't trade him if I'm Minnesota, he's far more valuable to the Wild. And I definitely wouldn't trade him to a team that isn't valuing him properly and utilizing him as a top 2 line center.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 7:19
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Okay.... if you didn't know that Wilson was 44th in points among right wings, and is 24 years old, then your dismissive attitude toward his trade value makes sense. He is (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=R&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points,goals,assists" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=R&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=points,goals,assists</a>) and he only got one of his points on the power play. At even strength, he's 28th among right wings (<a href="http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=R&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&amp;reportType=season&amp;seasonFrom=20172018&amp;seasonTo=20172018&amp;gameType=2&amp;position=R&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&amp;filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&amp;sort=evPoints,points</a>), and still, 24 years old and an RFA. And yes, he's as tough as Clutterbuck and has as much offensive potential as Clutterbuck started with. Clutterbuck didn't pan out offensively for the Isles. With Trotz at head coach, though, he'll certainly get better linemates and more offensive zone start than he's been getting, and pick things up a bit. If the Wild make a blockbuster trade to make him a big part of their future, I'm assuming they add him to at least their second power play unit, and he ends up with forty points a year until he's over thirty.

I agree that Dumba has a lot of trade value. A whole lot. I think Niskanen and Dumba are each #1 defensemen. Dumba is eight years younger. Koivu and WIlson are each about 2nd line forwards. Wilson had three more even strength points last year, 199 more hits, almost 100 more penalty minutes, and is ten years younger. Koivu fell off in faceoffs last year to 51.4%. The Caps got better numbers last year from Backstrom, Burakovsky, Vrana, and presumptive 4C Chandler Stephenson (54.8%). Lars Eller had an off year on faceoffs, but brings more offense in less ice time than Koivu. Kuznetsov needs to work on his faceoffs. One could argue that someone should pinch hit for him on draws after he won 44% last year, but he's almost a decade younger than Koivu, and improving, and the Caps also have centers Nic Dowd and Travis Boyd under contract. So I disagree with your assertion that Koivu carries significant positive value here. He's a fine throw-in, but the total cap hit coming to Washington ends up around 11M. The Wild get back less than 10M. Swapping a top pair defender and a 2nd line forward for the same, while getting an average of 1.5 year younger and 1M cheaper on each player is going to make the offer pretty tempting.

It's like for like at each spot. The Caps get 7 more even strength points, but 3 total years older, and 2M more expensive. That means they end up losing some players next summer, or trading Koivu at a loss next summer to have room to keep guys. Do they still need to throw in a pick to get it done? A prospect? Who? How about Colby Williams and a 2nd?</div></div>

I knew how many points Wilson had and his age, but didn't realize he ranked 44th in points among RW, I just wouldn't have guessed that high b/c I can think of off the top of my head multiple teams with 2-3 typical RWs with more points. Now some of that could be guys who play both wings and are listed as a LW or C/W guys who are listed as a center. That looks to be the case as there are only 97 guys listed as a RW, End of the day Wilson was in an 11 way tie for 169th in points among forwards, which if you average out around the league is still top 6, which isn't bad, but we aren't talking about an average team. Obviously not everyone plays the same number of games, so a better way may be to look at points per game. At 0.45 (Wilson's career best by far) he was in a 3 way tie for 192nd among all forwards (and remember this is only out of guys with 40 or more games). That sounds a lot more in line with Wilson's production of more of the 3rd line variety. I think it is very questionable if Wilson can score more or would be worth a greater opportunity. His 11% shooting percentage is WAY above his career average.

Koivu carries positive value to the Wild, the Caps are set with their top 3 centers and you wouldn't use Koivu as a 4C. That being said he's def. a better faceoff guy than anyone on the Caps. Koivu was actually better than Backstrom last year by a small margin, but Backstrom and Eller have never been strong Face-off guys, where as Koivu is a face-off specialist. The other guys you are mentioning are wingers and not guys who will be used primarily in the face-off circle with maybe the exception of Stephenson, but major small sample size.

Koivu is more valuable to the Wild than Wilson and it's not that close. Both are under control for 2 years, but Koivu was a clear 2C with 45-60 point production potential and weapon on face-offs. Wilson is like a 3rd RW and him getting a ton more penalty minutes isn't a good thing as that means he's off the ice and forcing the team in a negative situation. Some penalties are needed and I do think you need some physicality to protect your top guys, but if Wilson is going to be deployed on the top 2 lines like you are suggesting I don't want him taking those penalties.

Yes the even strength production might be in Niskanen and Wilson's favor, but that just means you are ignoring a significant portion of where offensive production is coming from. Typically just over 20% of goals are scored on the Power play, even a greater percentage of point production comes from the power play as well. Guys like Ovechkin and Kuzy had over 35% of their point production from the power play, that is the norm. But obviously not every player is offensively gifted enough to earn a spot on the Power play and that is the difference between Wilson and Koivu. Koivu was basically tied for most average time on ice on the Wild's power play and it showed as about 30% of his production came with the man advantage. Wilson barely saw any PP minutes, now sure the Caps top 4 is tough to crack, but Wilson was 11th among Caps forwards for PP time on ice (both total minutes or per game). Wilson fared better on the PK as the 3rd highest deployed forward, but he didn't match Koivu who was the Wild's top deployed PK forward.

As I said before I'm not a Wild fan, but if I was running this from the Wild perspective I wouldn't want to give up Koivu, he has way too much value to them and easily justifies his contract. Maybe the Caps don't need him, but Minnesota surely does. So I take him out of the deal b/c that is even a bigger loss to the Wild. And honestly I wouldn't want Wilson, I don't see what he brings to Minnesota at that price. Even his career high production is pretty average and there is a fair chance he goes back to being a sub .45 point per game guy (his previous high was .28 ppg). So from a Dumba for Niskanen I'd want multiple top picks and prospects, that is the only way to even out the deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 6:05
Thread: Kessel Trade
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 5:53
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Right, so, that's why your fellow Minnesota fan said the Wild would want to throw in Koivu who, at 35, definitely isn't getting younger, either. I agree that if Tom Wilson signs above 4M, it hurts his trade value. He had a lot of assists in the regular season and in the playoffs. Yes he played with great people, but he got no power play time and was still 44th among right wings in points last year, in the regular season. So I think he's grown into a good complimentary player. I'm suggesting trading him as an RFA. Most likley, I think Minnesota then signs him for 7 years at a cap hit of 3.5M. Does fixing the Wild's salary structure with Koivu move change your opinion of this trade, or is it still not quite right. How would you change it? Is tacking on 5.5M for a 35 year old enough to take out the pick swap? Thanks again.

I agree that Niskanen is no longer the best shutdown defenseman and top penalty killer and guy who plays the last 2:22 of the playoffs to hold onto a 1 goal lead against a fast team with an extra skater, and win the Stanley Cup, like he was in May. He's rested and healed and probably better.

Is players for players okay, or do the Caps have to throw in a prospect at right defense, like maybe Colby Williams, who played on the top pair in the AHL most of last year, got a few points, and a bunch of penalties? Basically, some Wild fans have been talking about making the team tougher, and mentioned Wilson and Niskanen as possible trade targets a couple weeks ago, and if there's a way to trade them for Dumba, I think the Caps should listen, because it might be a big step back this year in terms of experience, positioning, and penalty killing, but it'll keep them competitive when Carlson gets old. I don't really have a sense of the Wild's prospect depth, so I'm definitely interested to hear how things look from their side.</div></div>

Oh I'm not a Minnesota fan at all. I don't see Koivu being added to the deal as making it better for the Wild. Yes he's old, but he's still productive with 58 and 45 points the past two years. If Minnesota traded him they'd then have a hole at center and lessening the chance of contending during Niskanen's window. I don't think Koivu has a ton of trade value b/c at any time he can fall off, but he's still a productive player on the top 2 lines and I don't know if Minnesota can easily replace him.

I personally wouldn't want to sign Wilson long term, what are the odds that he can meet/improve on his offensive production. Going long term with him is risky (even assuming he'd want to), b/c he might be the next Cal Clutterbuck. Are Islander's fans thrilled that he's eating $3.5M a year, I don't really think so. He's a guy I'd want to go year-to-year with b/c his value is going to fluctuate, esp. if he keeps getting suspended and taking bad penalties. I'm not sure if that is true that he was 44th among RW in point production, but I know the Wild probably have 3 guys ahead of him slated for the RW, in Zucker, Granlund and Coyle. Maybe they decide to play one of those on the LW, but the point is Wilson doesn't really "fill a need".

Look I think Niskanen is still a really good defenseman, and there is no doubt he was clutch in the SC run, but the reality is during the regular season last year both his point production and possession numbers fell. And now you are acquiring him for his age 32nd-34th seasons, odds are he continues to slip. Not to the point of being deadweight like an Orpik, but where the difference between him and Dumba becomes very noticeable. Add in the two extra years of Dumba and that is a ton of value that needs to be made up. Wilson's 2 years don't do much for me, I think you can acquire a lot of what he brings to the table for a lot cheaper (both in terms of trade value and salary). So I'd want some serious picks and/or prospects if I'm the Wild.

If you took Dumba's age, production, potential, contract and years of control he's got to be up there in terms of general trade value.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 4:43
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Eli</b></div><div>Thanks for weighing in. Yeah. I think Niskanen right now brings more toughness and shutdown ability than Dumba, and Niskanen has a track record of consistency on offense, and was obviously a team leader on the champs this Spring. He's got a short list of teams he can be traded to and he's a Minnesota native, so if I'm realistically considering Niskanen trades, I don't see a more logical fit. But if the Caps lose one of their three #1 defensemen, they want to get one back right away, to start the season. So I might be wrong about the value, but I think Dumba is the kind of return that gets Niskanen moved.

As to how much to value WIlson, I think he's a 24 year old Clutterbuck, but meaner, and I absolutely agree that there's a huge range of opinions on what that kind of toughness is worth at any other position.</div></div>

Oh I think the Caps would be very happy with this deal, they get in my eyes the best player in the deal and save money long term doing so.

I just don't see Minnesota valuing Niskanen's defensive advantage (which did seem to take a step back some) over a a young defenseman who just had a 50 point season at age 23. Niskanen is turning 32 this year, and while he's still playing well he's likely to decline some over these 3 years, Dumba on the other hand is likely to keep improving and play at a very high level throughout his contract. I'm not saying Niskanen won't still be a decent player, but probably no longer will he be a 20-22 min a night guy.

For me I just don't see Wilson coming close to bridging the age, contract, production, potential gap between Dumba and Niskanen. Sure Wilson is still young, but his price is also likely to be inflated. I've seen $4M+ thrown around, which seems like an awful lot for a guy like Wilson. Sure he has value beyond the point totals (I like the comp to Clutterbuck), but that is still pretty pricey for a guy like Wilson, esp. when he only has 2 years of team control left. I think Minnesota needs scorers not a guy like Wilson. So I don't see it really particularly close for the Wild.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul 25, 2018 at 2:01