TML 2019 only way out Pt 1

Part 2 : https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1079056

My evaluation of Dubas work till now

Tavares - signing ............................................................................................... ( A ) i think that was a sure shot on JT side right after he hits UFA but still let him have merits
Nylander - signing............................................................................................ ( B+ ) explained below
Muzzin - trade .................................................................................................. ( B+ ) we could hunt someone younger with longer term like Manson or Pesce for additional 2x 2nd
Matthews - signing ...........................................................................................( C- ) avalanche of overpayment dragged by this one
DEPTH - signings...............................................................................................( A ) great job with one way minimum wage contracts on Sparks, Rosen, Borgman, Moore
TDL 2019 – trades..............................................................................................( D+ ) if not Muzzin B+ trade it would be F



NYLANDER (minor fail )

i was giving him 7 x 6,8M in my simulations in Aug 2018 cause 61 + 61 and inflation with cap raise ( otherwise point-contibution would make him 6,5M max)

i still believe Nylander was a pre-made setup, which allowed TML to give him money he wanted but with higher pay-check this year cause it was affordable. By holdout he was losing 20k per day, which in two months resulted in 1,2M deficit on his account. Distract that from 10,27M and you get 2M surplus to spread over 6 years on top of 6,9M contract which makes him 6 x 7,2M, so 600k above what he should get based on his previous two seasons production .In my books not such a tragedy in overpayment. Proly that cost TML the resigning of P.Lindholm at 1,5M next year.

Before signing comparable to :
Kutcherov ( 3 x 4,7M on top of 66 + 65)
Gaudreau ( 6 x 6,7M on top of 64 + 78 )
Monahan ( 7 x 6,4M on top of 34 + 63 + 62 )


MATTHEWS ( major fail )

in my books 7 x 11M in Aug 2018 cause 69 + 63 + "75" and riding on hype ( otherwise points-contribution would make him 8M max )

Lets say for the sake of argument Matthews is as good as McDavid ( he isnt, but still )

McDavid signed 8 x 12,5M in 2017, which would be 13,7M in 2018 with Cap raise ( 6% ) and rounded to 10% cause of "inflation".

8 x 13,7M
7 x 12,5M
6 x 11,3M
5 x 10,1M

The above should be logical descending contracts for Matthews ofc after he would score 100 points in his second season and rolling another 100 this season. You can figure the overpayment in $$ / years of contract by yourself. Maybe not even a tragedy if it wouldnt make precedens for all the other contracts to be signed.

Two other names come to mind ....Draisaitl and Eichel, both marked as centers, both signed 2017-2018, both considered overpayment... so ideal comparables to Matthews

Draisaitl.............51 + 77...............8 x 8,5M ( 128 points in first two seasons, 217 with third ).........again if he would sign in 2018 with same stats, it would be 8 x 9,4M..........so 5 x 6,5M ( on spot )
Eichel.................56 + 57...............8 x 10M ( 113 points in first two seasons, 185 with third ).............again if he would sign in 2018 with same stats, it would be 8 x 11M..........so 5 x 8M ( overpayment )
Matthews..........63 + 69...............5 x 11,6M ( 132 points in first two seasons, 195 with third )

2M overpayment on this if Matthews would be McDavid's level and what i can read from this contract is he is the greedy one ( not Nylander ) and wants to hit UFA asap and move to whoever gives him more.....so another minus from me on his account from TML fan perspective

After those 5x 11,634M Chiarelli looks like genius with McDavid and Draisaitl 8y contracts......

TDL ( medium fail )

MUZZIN

Great addition with no doubt, but with two 2nd rounds ( 2019, 2020 ) i believe TML could land Manson or even Pesce, which would be younger, defensive RHD and with longer term

GARDINER

you dont let ppl like JvR and Gardiner walk ( even Bozak ), even if being what ppl like to call buyer or not

ANA – Montour ( just cause he was traded this TDL )
ANA -- Manson
CAR -- Pesce
VAN -- Stecher ( mostly as team with D in »rebuild« with Gardiner as center point )
MIN – Spurgeon ( JvR at 2018 TDL )
NSH – Ellis ( JvR at 2018 TDL )


»Moneyballing«: Building better defence over offence soon enough ( even if team is on the way to playoffs ) wouldnt hurt at all, so JvR should be sacrificed for one of those guys at TDL 2018 ( i dare to claim better D last year would compensate for the points JvR brought to the game ), Gardiner at TDL 2019, that would bring two top RHDs which would proly bring TML further then first round playoffs, cause i assume it will be the fate this year also...

Simulation : https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1096382

Fact is that in last few years TML succesfully drafted the Offence, added big piece of Elite with Tavares...so some offensive power should be thrown away for the sake to build proper D, escpeciall now when late round drafted kids are rolling like being first rounders.

DEPTH

Nothing to add here, school examples of minimum one way contracts, started with Johnsson, Ennis and continuing with Moore, Rosen, Borgman, Sparks

Also Carcone seems to pan out just ok, Petan, Gagne and Baptiste still to see


Still to see what how Dubarelli will handle :

MARNER

i mostly went with 7 x 8M in Aug 2018 cause 61 + 69 + "90" and taking "hometown discount" ( otherwise points-contribution would make him 8,5M max )

So i went Dubarelli style and sign him for 2 x 7,5M, after bridge is done sign him for 5 x 13M into Matthews greedy face.

Comparables :
Kutcherov ( 3 x 4,7M on top of 66 + 65)
Panarin ( 2 x 6M on top of 77 + 74 )


KAPANEN

My take would be 2 x 2,7M cause 9 + "50" doesnt earn you nothing over 3M, but with recent trend Dubarelli is setting, maybe 1 x 2,9M for him, just to show we can overpay them all

Comparables :
Arvidsson ( 7 x 4,25M on top of 16 + 61 , tho i think kid screwed himself a bit with term to long )

JOHNSSON

Same as for Kapanen, tho hes one season of stats short, but lets say he gets the same

If I'm Kapanen and Nylander gets 6.96m, after two 20/40/60 seasons, why do I have to settle for 2.7m after a projected 23/25/48 season? That will be his argument. And maybe an offer sheet could be coming.

Well done laudanum. I like it. Well thought out.

That is most definitely not the only way out. & it might actually be an overpayment throwing in a 1st with Kadri for Pesce.

You wanna give Marner $8M AAV for 7 years and people call Dubas the cheap one? Yikes. None of these players would wanna negotiate with you or play for your team if you're gonna low ball them like that.