Edited Mar. 31, 2020 at 7:41 p.m.
Quoting: JTBF81
There's been nothing but baseless speculation that the cap is going down or staying the same. All these ppl saying it's a definite are just assuming. It may stay flat or go up to less than 84 but it won't be coming down. The season could still be completed and it's not like the whole season or even half was lost, if the reg season games aren't completed it was like 12-15%. If the cap does stay flat than a compliance buy out bbn is also very much anticipated so teams in tougher cap spots will also be fine. I still believe in a 84 million cap until further notice, and set Tampa's or anyone else's lineup accordingly.
Dude, the whole concept of an 84 million cap was speculation to begin with. That's not a confirmed number, that's just what they thought. It was based on revenue that they are now not getting. But even before that it was a meaningless number- they said it would be 84 last year, and it ended up being 81.5. Now they're saying it will 84 this year, and they're playing ten less games per team and missing the most profitable portion. There's nothing baseless about predicting the cap will go down- there is a formula for the cap: league revenue is split evenly 50/50 between players and owners, which sets a midpoint, and then there's a fixed percentage on either side of that midpoint to set the floor and ceiling. Most teams end up spending to the ceiling, which is why this is a problem. If the midpoint goes down, so does the ceiling. That's outlined in the CBA, which is on this website in full, look it up. There's no disputing that the cap is going down, because the NHL is losing revenue they thought they would get. That's objective fact. The question is whether, considering the circumstances, they'll agree on a different number, arbitrary of the cap formula, but that would require the owners to agree to not split revenue 50/50 and cede more to the players. And then you remember that this is also the league that decided to not play most or all of a season twice over pretty much this exact issue, and you see why the owners agreeing to that is probably not going to happen.
Compliance buyouts are nice but it still means real money has to be spent, even if it doesn't count against the cap, so owners have to be in a financial position to do that, and not all teams are. That also floods the market with free agents, some of whom will be very good and will sign for cheap (think Kevin Shattenkirk) and that will hurt teams like Tampa who need to trade guys who are already limited by people's contract clauses.
If you believe there's going to be any completion of the season you don't grasp how serious of a situation we're in right now. We'll be lucky if we get playoffs. It won't even be up to the league to decide to complete the season, it will be up to whether the governments will allow mass gatherings. Toronto just banned any public events until June 30th. Other cities will be doing the same, sooner or later. Not until July or August *at best* and then you're cutting into next season too, which means revenue lost in that season, which means you're trading revenue in one cap year for revenue in another, which solves nothing. And that's saying nothing of the economic impact COVID is having. Even if the season does resume, is there going to be the same amount of people who can afford to go to games? Are people going to still be cautious and avoid those public gatherings even if they are permitted to happen- especially if we just suppress an outbreak and not eliminate the virus? There is a ludicriously narrow path to an 84 million cap. I would think a pandemic would be enough further notice.