Taking a bit of a different approach with my second AGM. This one is aimed at a more traditional rebuild, which starts with moving Anaheim’s biggest trade chip. Let’s get to it…
Trades:
1. This deal sees New Jersey and Anaheim swapping the second and tenth overall picks, respectively. According to multiple studies, a second overall draft pick is worth roughly twice as much as a tenth overall pick. This would put Gibson’s return value in the range of a tenth to twelfth overall pick. In addition, Anaheim receives three assets that each equate to the value of a mid-round pick.
Misyul fits the mold of a big, physical d-man that Verbeek is seeking. There is not a ton of upside beyond a bottom-pairing guy, but his defensive style should translate to the NHL. He is also under contract in the KHL through next season. Tatar is a solid middle-six forward with good puck possession numbers. He can help Anaheim next season and be flipped at the trade deadline, with salary retention, for an additional mid-round pick. Many of the Gibson-to-NJ proposals have included Mackenzie Blackwood. While it does make sense at a glance, I do not think Anaheim would be interested. Blackwood’s cap hit for next season is only $2.8 million, however, he is owed $4.125 million in real money. There are cheaper UFA options for a team that is concerned about their bottom-dollar.
The speculation is that Anaheim is seeking a first-round pick and a top prospect for Gibson. This return does not include a top prospect, but it does include an extremely valuable pick swap. For New Jersey, they receive their “franchise goalie” and would still have their pick at a high-end prospect with the tenth overall selection. Obviously, your view on this trade depends on how you view John Gibson.
2. A recent report said that it would take “at least” a second round and a fourth round pick to dump the remaining two years of Patrick Nemeth’s contract. If that is the case, Anaheim should be first in line. Nemeth also has ties to Verbeek from his time in Detroit. He was a solid, veteran defenseman on a young team, and could play a similar role in Anaheim.
3. This is simply a paper move to get Anaheim comfortably over the cap floor next season. Bishop has a cap hit of ~$4.9 million, but it owed only $2.5 million in real money. This trade would need to be completed after Bishop is paid his $1 million signing bonus, presumably on July 1.
RFA signings:
Milano gets 3x$3 mil and Lundestrom gets 5x$2.88 mil. I do think Anaheim will be hesitant to give Milano more than 3-4 years due to his injury history. Benoit and Steel both get rewarded with multi-year contracts after having their best NHL seasons to date. Vaakanainen and Elvenes both accept their QO’s. Badini, Durny, Guhle, and Larsson do not receive QO’s and becomes UFA’s.
UFA signings:
The Ducks have had a difficult time attracting UFA’s in past seasons. Manson is familiar with the area and was open to signing an extension before being traded to Colorado. Barring any hurt feelings, he would be a welcome re-addition to the right side. Comrie grew up in Newport Beach and still works out at the Ducks practice facility during the offseason. This is a slight overpay, but I’d rather take a chance on Comrie over many of the veteran UFA options.
Looking ahead:
With the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, Anaheim selects Logan Cooley. This gives the Ducks another blue-chip prospect and allows them to build around Zegras-Cooley-McTavish with Lundestrom as 4C. With their next two picks, they are hopefully able to add a right-handed defenseman to address their weakness at the position.
Tatar (50% retained) and Anthony Stolarz are both flipped at the deadline for mid-round draft picks. Lucas Dostal, Jacob Perreault, and Brayden Tracey should all see significant NHL playing time and hopefully be ready for full-time roles in 2023-24. The Ducks will likely miss the playoffs once again, but will have a shot at winning the Bedard sweepstakes.
I'm going to pretty frank here. I would love to have Gibson on our team but I'm not sure he's worth swapping 1st and then us adding. Case in point, Schneider was traded for 9th overall (Horvat) straight up. He was younger and had a above .920 save percentage for 3 + years.
I'm going to pretty frank here. I would love to have Gibson on our team but I'm not sure he's worth swapping 1st and then us adding. Case in point, Schneider was traded for 9th overall (Horvat) straight up. He was younger and had a above .920 save percentage for 3 + years.
That is a fair trade to bring up. I'd say 9OA is very similar to the value of the pick swap (which is somewhere between the value of an additional 10-12OA pick) and a few smaller pieces. As for Schneider, he had never started more than 30 games in a NHL season. I compare that trade to the Raanta deal, though there were more pieces involved. Like I said in my explanation, your opinion of the deal is going to vary based on your opinion of John Gibson. I do believe he commands more respect around the league than his numbers may reflect. He was recently ranked 4th in the annual players poll and was 5th in an anonymous NHL GM/coaches poll prior to the season. Obviously I don't know where NJ's FO stands on him. But Anaheim isn't desperate to trade him and I don't think he'll be going anywhere unless they get premium value.
I'm going to pretty frank here. I would love to have Gibson on our team but I'm not sure he's worth swapping 1st and then us adding. Case in point, Schneider was traded for 9th overall (Horvat) straight up. He was younger and had a above .920 save percentage for 3 + years.
The counter-argument to Schneider vs Gibson is the latter is more of a workhorse though.
If we want a true #1, he is probably the best bet these days.
If you have a .915 goalie for 60 games
And a .900 back-up for 20 games
You get a .911 tandem
If you a .920 goalie for 40 games
And a couple .900 back-ups for rest
You get a .910 unit
Campbell, Samononov, Holtby, etc aren't giving you 55-60 starts.
I am open to it if it means we never see Gillies, Hammond, etc again