ROReilly

I would send Robertson over Niemela and I imagine you'll send a 3rd as well.

If were sending Robertson, you'd have to be sure ROR is signing an extension for next season at a reasonable cap hit. I wouldnt take that risk for a pending UFA

I would also send Robertson over Niemela.

Niemela has more value to the Leafs than Robertson whose value is going to deplete if he doesn't do anything. His value is already hit by him being a small forward who got injured several times already and he hasn't been able to stay a regular. The reason for trading Robertson though would be to give him a chance to play if he can't crack the Leafs lineup and the Leafs would get an opportunity to get a player who can put them over the top.

I would expect Dubas to at most, offer the Giroux package. So Robertson (in place of Tippett) + maybe a current 3rd (in place of the 2024 which would be like the 2025 one now) + 2024 1st (O'Reilly is younger so a slightly better 1st perhaps instead of the 2025 which would be equivalent to the 2024 one last year). However, there is a high chance though that Dubas doesn't even offer a 1st and instead two 2nds.

Would Doug Armstrong accept either version? I'm inclined to say no, but that remains to be seen. I don't expect Dubas to pursue anyone strongly but maybe he will pursue O'Reilly and fork up the 1st, but not the current (2023) 1st or top prospects in Knies or Niemela or even Minten.

Nah, I am fine losing Robertson for the right rental. ROR helps TO get over the top, Robertson's greatest worth to TO is in a trade. I don't think he'll ever be what we hope he is on the Leafs. He needs to be the man on an offensive line and he'll do well but he just won't ever be that in TO. Guys like Knies, Minten, Voit and others have the ability to add to our core in ways that Robertson can't. Move him for a guy who turns us into a true favorite.