Long term forecast

Created by: Billy739

Team: 2023-24 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 3, 2023

Published: Jul. 3, 2023

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Legend

Left Handed

Original Team

Waivers Exempt

Right Handed

Position

Trade Clause

Max Perf. Bonus

Expiry Status

Term Remaining

McDavid, Connor

$12,500,000 ( Performance Bonus

$250,000)

NMC

UFA - 5

Description

Summer time trade at camp before Preseason

1st Pair : Matheson , Guhle and Hutson all top LD players
2nd pair: Harris,Beaudin and Engstrom now that Eddy's traded
3rd pair: Xhekaj, Struble, and Trudeau

2nd and 3rd pair have a natural succession rate where
1st though has 2 Starters today and 1 within 2 years
It'll impact the max return MTL can make longterm to continue with this log jam.
Something has to give and when Trading you go for Value but also want to keep your best piece.
Short and Long term its easiest to keep Matheson and let Hutson push him out
Long term that means Guhle's either got to play a less role wiping our column 2 prospects entirely without exception.
Or that we move him for a profit in a deal that can land us a decent 1st round pick and/or a prospect

Monahan , Arvidson and Hoffman will be dealt at the TDL for assets.
Then the lines will be more like this:

Caufield-Suzuki-Dach
Slafkovsky-Newhook-Anderson
Ylonen-Dvorak-Gally
Pezetta-Evans-Armia
Pitlick

Future Dcore

Hutson-Reinbacher
Harris-Barron
Xhekaj-Kovaevic
Engstrom (or Mailloux if cleared)

You dont put the guy who beat Makar's NCAA numbers as a Rookie anywhere but top pair.
You dont put a guys like Guhle on 2nd pair either it diminishes his value and isnt where he belongs.

With Matheson here 3 years it only makes sense timing wise to invest in him for a payoff as Huston come into play.
Guhle it makes sense to trade for more today then take less on Harris or Matheson who are solid in their roles and will require much less money to play there then Guhle long term.

I dont like moving on from Guhle
But its better then creating a Trouba like situation he had in WPG

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Davidson, Jared		3	$900,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Beaudin, Nicolas	1	$900,000
Condotta, Lucas	2	$900,000
Stephens, Mitchell	1	$900,000
Ylönen, Jesse	1	$975,000
Newhook, Alex	4	$3,350,000

Trades

MTL

Arvidsson, Viktor
Spence, Jordan
2024 4th round pick (LAK)
2025 2nd round pick (LAK)

Additional Details:

Top Pair LD Prospect who can grow beside Clarke Brandt from 3rd pair to 1st pair naturally over time.

Conditional 2nd becomes a 1st if LAK make WCF with Guhle playing 50% or more games (so possible 29th to 32nd OA pick)

This also gives LAK who are cap compliant after waiving 1/3 goalies with only 21/23 players signed. this free's up 4.25m to remedy that situation and avoid giving up a 1st outright while adding a someone who had 14 goals in 34 games as a rookie for $825K.

From a cap and roster POV they get 2 players cheap with on who isnt arbitration eligible til 1 year after their his new contract 2 years from now. The other is Waiver Exempt for 32 more NHL games so can be sent down and brought up as needed. Good pieces for a cash strapped franchise to have

LAK

Guhle, Kaiden
Harvey-Pinard, Rafaël [RFA Rights]

Additional Details:

MTL gets someone to compete with Barron and as insurance if Mailloux has to sit out another year or two or forever. He's NHL ready for well over a season held down by depth and i figure gives Barron a chance to continue his growth defensively in the AHL another year.

But what happens if they all make it?

I'll buy a lotto ticket and celebrate as that many RD of Varying skill sets would assure the 3 best make it and that they are quality players who fit.

Arvidsson is a player we can skate til the TDL then move to a contender or keep if he plays well with our top line

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $833,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Joel Edmundson: $1,750,000 (50%)

Buried

Joel Armia: $2,250,000 ($3,400,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2024
2025
2026

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$75,940,833	$1,170,000	$3,597,500	$7,559,167

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Caufield, Cole $7,850,000$7,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Suzuki, Nick $7,875,000$7,875,000 C UFA - 7	Arvidsson, Viktor $4,250,000$4,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Slafkovsky, Juraj $950,000$950,000 ($3,500,000$4M) RW, LW RFA - 2	Dach, Kirby $3,362,500$3,362,500 C, RW RFA - 3	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 4
Newhook, Alex $3,350,000$3,350,000 C, LW RFA - 4	Monahan, Sean $1,985,000$1,985,000 ($15,000$15K) C, LW, RW UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4
Hoffman, Mike $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW UFA - 1	Dvorak, Christian $4,450,000$4,450,000 C M-NTC UFA - 2	Ylönen, Jesse $975,000$975,000 RW, LW RFA - 1
Pezzetta, Michael $812,500$812,500 LW, RW UFA - 2	Evans, Jake $1,700,000$1,700,000 C UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Matheson, Michael $4,875,000$4,875,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 3	Savard, David $3,500,000$3,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Montembeault, Samuel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Harris, Jordan $1,400,000$1,400,000 LD/RD RFA - 2	Spence, Jordan $820,000$820,000 ($82,500$82K) RD RFA - 1	Allen, Jake $1,925,000$1,925,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Xhekaj, Arber $828,333$828,333 LD/RD RFA - 1	Kovacevic, Johnathan $766,667$766,667 RD UFA - 2
	Wideman, Chris $762,500$762,500 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 3

Top Comments

Jul. 3, 2023 at 7:48 a.m.

Subbanator7667

Subbanator

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 7,432

Likes: 3,396

Not trading Guble for that garbage

Billy739 liked this.

Jul. 3, 2023 at 8:05 a.m.

Billy739

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 6,590

Likes: 1,629

Quoting: Subbanator7667

Not trading Guble for that garbage

Then pick a trade , it remains the same he'll land more then any others we move.
Arvidsson can easily be flipped at the TDL for more assets
Spence is a solid RHD option
Condtional 2nd that becomes a 1st is pretty good too

If Arvidsson has a great year he'll get a 1st and a prospect at worst.

But again the idea remains the same
More Profitable to move Guhle then it is Harris, Matheson or Xhekaj
The rest we'll lose value on for sure

Jul. 3, 2023 at 9:06 a.m.

Jay27

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 1,962

Likes: 1,104

A solid top 4 wins cups. If player development goes according to plan then by the time Matheson’s contract expires the top 4 will be Guhle-Barron and Hutson-Reinbacher with possible adjustment of course. In the meantime no reason to trade any of these guys… especially Guhle IMO.

Billy739 liked this.

Jul. 3, 2023 at 9:11 a.m.

Jay27

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 1,962

Likes: 1,104

Also Mailloux is far from NHL ready. Got raw talent and the size but the kid has a long way to go between the ears(on-ice) before he makes the show.

Jul. 3, 2023 at 9:42 a.m.

Billy739

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 6,590

Likes: 1,629

Quoting: Jay27

Hutsons not being developed to be a 2nd pair guy
He's got Multi time Cup winning Defensman Jay Pandolfo coaching him to be a Top Dog
We got Coach Nicholas working with them on improving his skill sets and he's done more in less time then Guhle despite his size.

It would be like putting Cale Makar on 2nd pair ( a player who's career NCAA stats he stomped as a rookie and made a final 4 on a rebuild )
I'd question your sanity

Odd man out is Guhle if we're keeping Hutson
If Guhle stays then Matheson has to go today and Hutson later on.
People are sleeping on Engstrom as if he's not going to make it harder for us to decide when he finished top 3 SHL rookies and top 5 among SHL D scorers
He trains with 2 teams and lives in the Gym but trains high intensity Cardio to keep lean as opposed to Xhekaj who gained 53lbs in 2 years in pure muscle

He's Mobile and skates like Lehkonen always on the attack shadowing his opponent.
Kicking the can down the road will just put MTL in a position where we dont have leverage and end up giving him away for less in a contract crunch like LAK with Durzi

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