EOAC

I think the RNH-at-#3C experiment can probably end. He cannot drive a line and we haven't seen the ability to do so from Holloway (yet). Nuge has played his best hockey at LW over the past few seasons, and it's really hard to justify breaking up the trio of RNH - McDavid - Hyman. They have game-breaking shot and goal numbers since being put together and genuinely form one of the best lines in hockey.

I definitely understand the idea of reuniting Brown and McDavid, but I see too much of the Draisaitl-Kahun thought process at play here. Those two haven't played together in nearly a decade and Brown is coming off having missed (essentially) an entire season. There's a lot more sense to be had in starting Brown in softer minutes.

Ceci and Janmark will be playing hockey at the NHL level this season. You do yourself a massive intellectual disservice by burying Ceci: he's very much an established NHL player, quit letting headlines dictate your thought process. Recall that most of the high-end part of the Oilers roster expressed a want in Holland to resign Janmark and that Malone isn't actually a full-time NHL player.

When was the Nuge at 3c experiment? I was just trying to balance the best opportunity for Holloway and forward lines depth.
Best performing line Nuge was on last season was him with Drai and Yams, 3rd best was him playing centre with Janmark and Kostin

I don't think the best spot for Brown is with McDavid either, but it looks like that's the Oilers plan so far.

Cap hits of Ceci and Janmark informed my decision to try them in the AHL, not headlines. Ceci had his groin injury for half of last season and for some reason they didn't let him heal up before the playoffs, but because of that I think he'd potentially clear waivers. If Broberg's gonna be in the NHL he needs to play.

Janmark was sent down last season because of the cap, opportunity, and injury issues. Not unreasonable to think it could happen again if need be.

Ceci + Janmark = $4,250,000 and Desharnais + Malone = $1,525,000 + $2,100,000 (buried Ceci) = $3,625,000. Just math for a 22 man roster, but Holloway and or Broberg could go down too of course.

I don't appreciate being basically called dumb because of assumption you've made. That is a disservice to intelligents.

I thought any intelligent person would see this was simply an experiment to see what could be necessary for the young guys to play and avoid waivers with a 22 man roster under the cap, no trades

I'm going to segment this reply into two posts:



Pick any time from about 2018 onwards when Edmonton had established Connor and Leon as their #1 and #2 centers. Strome was a much better anchor at #3C than RNH has ever been. He's found a new step to his game as a LW. It's best to keep him there.



This is false depending on how you define "best performing". Stats will be presented as for/against where applicable, all at 5v5.

RNH with McDavid and Hyman:
79GP/208:37 TOI
Shots: 138/114 (54.76%)
Goals: 16/10 (61.54%)
Scoring chances: 152/82 (64.96%)
Shooting percentage: 11.59%
PDO: 1.028

RNH with Draisaitl and Yamamoto:
56GP/79:40 TOI
Shots: 43/41 (51.19%)
Goals: 5/2 (71.43)
Scoring chances: 36/36 (50%)
Shooting percentage: 11.63%
PDO: 1.067

The RNH/McDavid/Hyman line is a game-breaking line that controls possession, zone time, and the scoresheet. This line also does so without relying on a boatload of luck and has a sample size large enough to suggest that they're the real deal. Why would you want to separate this trio based on their body of work? Even if you expand the scope into the 2021-22 season, their numbers remain virtually unchanged. This is the line that leads Edmonton to Stanley.

The DYNamite line showed really, really well in 2020 and had been poor to okay since. Full credit, the line outscored the opposition well but I have a feeling those numbers are inflated by the complimentary .950 goaltending that featured during their icetime. If that line sees similar goaltending as to what the above trio got, the GF/GA ratio dips to 5/3 (62.50%), more in-line with the actual goal-scoring numbers as the above line, but without the actual on-ice domination.

It's a bit ticky-tacky depending on what you define as "best producing" but I think the obvious part in all of this is that RNH isn't stirring the drink on either of these lines. Connor and Leon move mountains by force of sheer will alone, and I think your bringing the Janmark/RNH/Kostin line into focus helps demonstrate that point. They ran as hot as a ten-cent pistol over a very small window of time before the cracks started to show much more prominently (I recall more GA than GF towards the end of their run).

RNH without either McDavid or Draisaitl (2022-23):
82GP/498:18TOI
Shots: 235/244 (49.06%)
Goals: 24/21 (53.33%)
Scoring chances: 195/220 (46.99%)
Shooting percentage: 10.21%
PDO: 1.016

These are breakeven numbers from last year, which on their own are fine, but with the above context show a misuse of a player. Why tread water when you can drown the other guy and thrive?

RNH without either McDavid or Draisaitl (2020-23):
197GP/1175:03 TOI
Shots: 540/604 (47.02%)
Goals: 49/48 (50.52%)
Scoring chances: 458/555 (45.21%)
Shooting percentage: 9.07%
PDO: 1.011

The three-year sample is more damning. Either the Oilers have had really bad linemates alongside RNH (true) or he's a much stronger fit as a complimentary player to someone who drives a line. It's an effect that can be seen all the way back to when Hall was still THE Edmonton Oiler.

I think Oiler fans en-masse need to give Ryan McLeod a lot more respect and a lot more rope. His numbers with any of the middle wingers this club has ran over the past two seasons are exceptional. He's the undisputed #3C on this team and I'm not sure what else he needs to do to prove that.

I can make some time for the argument behind burying Janmark but I have absolutely none for your thought process behind Ceci.

The entirety of Janmark's deal is buriable and it's not a massive stretch to say that Edmonton has at least one player in the minors that could be better suited for the NHL at a cheaper cap hit (I'm thinking Pederson). Anyone can justify that $225k in cap savings, although it does come at the expense of the locker room. The big guys love Janmark, and I think 33% of a league-minimum player is worth the team's morale.

Burying Ceci in favour of rostering Niemelainen saves the Oilers $362.5k and for the life of me, I cannot figure out why you believe this is an intelligent idea. Cody Ceci is an NHL defenceman. He has played - adequately - as Edmonton's #1RD for multiple seasons now and while I firmly agree that is not the role for him, to suggest he should be left off this roster in favour of Desharnais or Niemelainen is paralyzingly stupid. The gap between either of those men and Ceci is far greater than the meager savings you've wrought. And for what? A 22-man roster? One of the largest criticisms this team has faced since what feels like the dawn of time is that the blueline sucks. Burying Ceci in favour of two men that barely have a justification to NHL icetime is sensationalism at best and does nothing to address the palpable weakness this team has behind its juggernaut forwards.

Edmonton is going to have to risk at least two players to waivers. I think you're drastically over-exaggerating that risk: Niemelainen won't be claimed. Every NHL team has a 7th defender between it's roster an farm team already. One of Lavoie or Pederson is being waived as well and of the two, I really only think there's risk to losing Lavoie because of his upside. Neither player is a substantial piece as of the morning of October 2nd.

You are tripping over loonies to save pennies. Make it make sense.

GF% is what I look at. Least amount of contributing variables I think. All that matters to me is what's best for the team with Nuge at whatever position, and I hope they explore it. Salary and individual production be damned.

Does McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, and McLeod down the middle have the potential of being like 2 first lines and 2 2nd or 3rd lines? I think so. Why not try with the wingers the Oilers have now?

Could McLeod be a 2c, probably. Is he one on a team playing McDavid and Draisaitl at centre, no. Could a 3rd line with 3 centres potentially be good, and the Oilers be able to role 4 lines more like this instead of depending on McDrai so much, maybe.

Your making a bunch assumptions and arguing with yourself about them.

Again, I was trying the best 22 man roster under the cap. What's so hard to understand about Ceci having a rough season, so potentially not being taken on waivers, and saving enough money if sent down to have 22 players in the NHL over Kulak

In real life.The Oilers will probably be running a 21 man roster. Ceci will be playing in the NHL. Janmark will be in the bottom 6 along with Foegele.
Why you ruining my fun and calling me dumb?