I was answering a Question on what I thought the big 3 would get, and I gave this, wanted to put it into a ACGM to keep it for future use, and as an easy point to answer tool.
Please note: This is not lines, or team projections, just a blank ACGM whith the cap chart in it, ignore the actual roster and lines.
Nylander is almost identical to Ehlers in terms of points, being a Leafs fan, I think he is a bit better, but not by much, so 7@6 is fair.... BUT
The cap has gone up, and Ehlers signed last year. Given that, it will range from between 7@6.5 to 6@6 possibilities include:
6@6 <-- Nylander caves in negotiations/team discount
6@6.25 <--most likely
6@6.5 <--- Second most likely (and not far behind)
7@6.25 <--- Nylander caves in negotiations
7@6.5 <--- Third most likely (team slightly wins in negotiations)
7@6.75 <--- team buys another year of UFA, pretty fair to both sides
8@7 <--- the 8 year deal option
Marner is not that much better than Nylander right now. The difference right now is role, and Marner's role is far more important. If Marner were up now, he would get about 500k more than Nylander, but honestly, I would not be surprised to see matching contracts. BUT...
Marner's contract is not up now, its up next year, that means we need to factor in a cap increase, his higher ceiling, and the fact he is playing with JT. He is a 70 point player right now, that puts him between 6.75 and 7.25 (6 year contract signed today), I figure if he gets 80 points, he gets 6@7.5,90: 6@8, 100: ? Marner is a wild card in this, so many possibilities. Possible outcomes range from 6 to 8 years, 7.25 to 8.75 mil:
6@7.25 <--- Same thing as below, but slight discount
6@7.5 <--- most likely (80 ish points)
6@8 <---- 90+ point season, is completely dominant
7@7.75 <----- 85+ points, very dominant
7@8 <----90+ points very dominant
8@8 <---Second most likely (80 points)
8@8.5+ <--- (90 + points, best winger in the league dominant (100+ points not out of question))
Matthews is actually the easiest of the three, He is looking for something between McDavid and Eichel, JT is at 11, and left something on the table, McDavid also left something on the table, 8@11 is a natural fit.
Possibilities include
6@9 <---- very unlikely, but an interesting idea
7@10 <---- similar to the above
8@11 <--- what he will get
8@12 <---- Wins Rocket/Hart/Conn Smythe
Like. you Matthews number. Marner being a Toronto boy and he can always pay zero rent sleeping in parents basement gets a 8 year deal at 7.6. This impasse with Nylander makes me think a bridge is the only alternative.
I don't think the Leafs will "cheat" him. 5.75m X 3. though I think the Leafs might overpay on 7 year deal. 6.85m X 7.