Leafs 2019-20 - Updated previous post - My thoughts have not changed much

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 19, 2019

Published: Jan. 26, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

There are going to be no major trades done at the 2019 trade deadline or in the summer 2019. Firstly, there really is no cap room to add salary if they want to make sure there is no performance bonus carryover to next year. Secondly, the management team is going to improved the team internally through the development of prospects. The leafs are going to follow the mindset of Detroit's management over the last 25+ years that saw them make the playoffs for 25 straight years and win 4 cups. As a fan would you rather be impatient and sell the future for one a one time shot this year at the cup (which is what I see a lot of the armchair-gm posts are doing) or be patient to create a team that has multiple chances at a cup in future years. I want the latter. I have been watching the leafs since the late 1970's and have seen them sell the future so many times to get instant gratification. I am excited by the current management team that wants to develop the future internally.

With that said Marleau is not going anywhere. He is a great mentor for the kids and can still play albeit on the third or fourth line next year.
I would not mind if they resign Hainsey to a 1 year deal for 1 million as third pairing or depth guy and if he ends up as a scratch he is still valuable as a mentor to the defense kids.

Matthews and Marner get signed for no more than a combined 20 million per for 6 to 8 years. After 6 years Tavares contract is up and his 11 million can be used to resign Matthews and Marner again. I used 11 and 9 but it could 11.25 and 8.75 etc. but the total will be no more than 20 mil between them. The leafs will likely front load these contracts like Nylander's making them worth more due to time value of money. See below for more analysis on the 11 and 9 million respective cap hits. Also see what @BCAPP posted about Marner's worth https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/994859.

Rosen will get the promotion to the big team. I think his play with the Marlies has earned it. Ozhiganov continues to improve as he adjusts to the NHL and has earned another contract. Also I think that Sandin and Liljegren can use another year with the Marlies with large minutes to develop their craft.

A budget of 5 million is what the team management is probably looking at allocating to Kapanen and Johnsson to two or three year deals. Kapanen I see following the same contract path as TEUVO TERÄVÄINEN https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/994859 Which is a two year short term deal first and then signing the long term deal.

Trevor Moore will make the big team.

Lindholm is a great utility guy and I think it is worth trying to resign him but as a UFA it will be for more than a million.

Unfortunately that leaves no money for Gardiner - some team will pay big for him as a UFA and good for him. Travis Dermott is fully capable of taking over for Gardiner.

The 23rd spot will be filled by most likely another Utility forward. I am using Ennis if he can be signed for a reasonable price and if not him it could be another UFA depth signing or one of the kids making the team like Grundstrom. The team has quality defense kids that can be called up to fill in without waiver issues so I don't think the 23rd spot will be a defense so Marincin is will not be resigned.

The leafs and the fans will just have to be patient for a year and wait to 2020-21 where they will have Marleau's 6 million plus the increase in cap space to focus on defense improvements if the kids Sandin and Liljegren are still not ready to jump in. Also Dermott will need to be resigned and he will get a nice raise.


Additional support for Matthews and Marner numbers

Matthews for 8 years at 11 million (13.25% of 83mil) = (4 years RFA at 8.5mil (10.25% of 83mil) and 4 years UFA at 13.5mil (16.26% of 83mil) = 11mil average)
Marner for 8 years at 9 million (10.84% of 83mil) = (4 years RFA at 7.5 mil (9.03% of 83mil) and 4 years UFA at 10.5 mil (12.65% of 83mil) = 9mil average)

Historical Contracts
John Tavares – 5.5 mil as RFA starts 2012-13 (9.16% of 60mil), 11 mil as UFA starts 2018/19 (13.83% of 79.5mil)
Jonathan Toews – 6.3 mil as RFA starts 2010-11 (10.60% of 59.4mil), 10.5 mil as UFA starts 2015-16 (14.70 of 71.4mil)
Patrick Kane – 6.3 mil as RFA starts 2010-11 (10.60% of 59.4mil), 10.5 mil as UFA starts 2015-16 (14.70 of 71.4mil)
Tyler Sequin – 5.75 mil as RFA starts 2013-14 (8.94% of 64.3mil, 9.85 mil as UFA starts 2019-20 (11.86% of 83mil)
Steven Stamkos – 7.5 mil as RFA starts 2011-12 (11.66% of 64.3mil, 8.5 mil as UFA starts 2016-17 (11.64% of 73mil)
Nikita Kutcherov – 4.76 mil as RFA starts 2016-17 (6.52% of 73mil), 9.5mil as UFA starts 2019-20 (11.44% of 83mil)
David Pastrnak – 6.67 million per for 4 years RFA and and 2 years UFA starts 2017/18 contract(8.89% of 75mil)
Nathan Mackinnon – 6.3 million per for 4 years RFA and 3 years UFA starts 2016/17 (8.63% of 73mil)
Mark Scheifele – 6.125 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2016/17 (8.39% of 73mil)
William Nylander – 7.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 2 years UFA starts 2018/19 (9.43% of 79.5mil)
Jack Eichel – 10 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2018/19 (12.57% of 79.5mil)
Vladimir Tarasenko – 7.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2015/16 (10.50% of 71.4mil)
Connor McDavid – 12.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2018/19 (15.72% of 79.5mil)
Leon Draisaitl – 8.5 million per for 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA starts 2017/18 (11.33% of 75mil)