Team: 2017-18 Pittsburgh Penguins

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 27, 2018

Published: Jan. 27, 2018

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Pens are in trouble if they don't get a third line center soon enough. Pageau and Letestu have come up recently as targets, but I believe there is one more darkhorse candidate.

1. Markus Grandlund from VAN. He's had a rough run this year, after having a 2.0 CF% rel last year on the Canucks 5v5. This year he has a -2.5 CF% rel 5v5. He would be a good, buy low option.

2. Buy low? What kind of assets do you mean? Well I was thinking of what Canucks need and what our tradeable assets are, and I came up with Rowney+2nd. It is an overpayment, but we would have to overpay to get him. He isn't a legit 3C come playoff time though.

3. Onto Pageau and Letestu . . .

Pageau has been linked to Penguins, per LeBrun and Friedman. Pageau is a perfect 3C come playoff time. Now his advanced stats aren't amazing. Here's why:

Pageau's CF is actually pretty good at 560, but his CF% is 41.2(all situations). Well how could his CA bring his CF% down that much? A little thing called Defensive Zone Starts %. Pageau's dZS% is 66.3(all situations). That's absurdly high. Only defensive defencemen have a dZS% that high. Because his dZS% is so high, it brings his CF% and CF% rel down. There is a reason people also prefer the eye test, like me, over analytics, and Pageau is one of the reasons to. Pageau is a great player, but stats don't show that.

3. I've heard that Sprong+1st+small add(Cole?) is the asking price from OTT. Lots of people have been telling me that OTT is crazy to ask that, but they actually aren't

Pageau is the type of player who never is traded because of contract status AND position. When was the last time a young 3C with term and lowish cap was traded? I guess Brandon Sutter or Nick Bonino, but they were traded for eachother so it's hard to gauge value. But teams just don't trade Pageau-like players. OTT doesn't have to trade Pageau either, so they don't care if you don't meet their price. OTT also realizes that PIT is desperate for a 3C, so they are going to ask the moon for Pageau. Honestly, I'd do Sprong+3rd or 1st+lower prospect for Pageau.

4. Interesting quotes from Rutherford: “It’s a little tighter at this point than other seasons, but there are still players out there that are available. Are they the right fit? Does that improve our team? Those things all get factored in. At this point in time, there’s not somebody out there that can improve our team.”

“I don’t think it changes what I feel, what’s necessary going forward. I think we have depth at all positions except center. And if we can add one more without taking anything out of our lineup, at this point, that’d be my preference.”

Quote #1 makes me believe teams don't want to deal with PIT.

Quote #2 makes me believe that Sprong will be traded for a young center.

5. Onto Letestu

His advanced stats are decent: 52.6 CF% and 0.2 CF% rel. But that's in all situations. He gets 1PP time. 5v5, he is bad with 49.1 CF% and -4.1 CF rel. My understanding is that Letestu is the "fallback option" if our main target(Pageau) doesn't work out. Letestu just won't cut it. In theory, if we do trade for Letestu, it won't be for much. I don't think he should cost more than Rowney and a 5th. He's straight bad.

6. Evander Kane has also been linked to us. Very interesting there, as Kane is affordable for the Penguins. At 50% on deadline day, the Penguins wouldn't have to send much salary back for him. He'd probably cost Cole+1st+conditional 3rd+B prospect(Bjorkvist?). Evander Kane could jump right into the lineup and play any line. He also PKs, so that's a plus. He's got a 4.2 CF% rel when 5v5, which would be a great add come playoffs.

7. Murray, Jarry, or DeSmith aren't going anywhere. Rutherford had this to say: “I don’t have any interest in moving any of those guys. We’ve gone through a transition period here where the No. 1 goalie for years – and one of the franchise’s most beloved players – has moved on. We’ve transitioned into a team that probably has the best group of young goalies in the league. I don’t have any interest in talking [to other teams] about these three guys.”

I'm happy. Having great goalie depth is awesome, especially when you don't have to trade for one goalie to get that depth.

8. That quote makes me feel Gustavsson is available, though. He should be available, too. We have three young goalies already, and Gustavsson is a very nice trade piece. I have been packaging Gustavsson for Zack Smith alot around here.

9. Speaking of Zack Smith, I wonder what OTT will do with him. He's signed for a good amount of years at a lowish cap hit(3.25m). I really want him on the Penguins, but getting him and Pageau are unlikely.

10. Patric Hornqvist is a UFA at year's end. Will we resign him? Possibly. Will we be the only team on him? No.

Other teams will really want Hornqvist. CGY and MTL among others I believe. Hornqvist will likely make 5 years of 5.75m per, based on comparable deals.

Lucic: 7yrs/6m per
Backes: 5yrs/6m per
Radulov: 5yrs/6.25m per
Ladd: 7rs/5.5m per

11. Who are untouchable? Well you have to imagine Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang, and Murray are definites, but I believe Dumoulin and Guentzel are too. In theory, I believe only Sheary and Cole are available off of the current roster in JR's eyes.

12. Back to the quote JR made about not trading anyone off the roster, I believe Sprong, 1st, 2nd, Bjorkvist and Gustavsson are the players/assets he is currently shopping for 3C/Kane. Nobody is subtracted from the current roster. Ian Cole should stay for depth unless we get an out-of-the-park offer for him.

13. Let's talk about Wilkes-Barre!

Why was Dea called up over Bluegar? No clue. Bluegar is better defensively and is more dynamic than Dea. Who knows. Thomas Di Pauli is NHL-ready, too bad we have so much winger depth. ZAR is also NHL-ready and should be an everydayer come next year. After a bad start, ZAR now has 26 points in 39 games.

14. Sprong was reassigned. He looked very good on the boards and wasn't bad defensibly, either. I think it's more Sullivan not liking Sprong than it is Sprong's two way game. Sprong will need to build up confidence in the AHL and when he is at his highest confidence, call him up again.

I fear that when Sprong is an everyday player, it won't be for the Penguins . . .

15. Speaking of confidence, Ryan Haggerty. Dude has 16 goals and 14 assists in 30 games. He isn't on an NHL contract yet, but JR should sign him. Hardly anyone produces like that in the AHL anymore.

16. Olli Maatta and Brian Dumoulin have been great all year. Those two shouldn't be touched by other teams. Maatta has a 53.0 CF% and Dumoulin has a 52.7 CF%(even strength for both). If one were to be traded, it better be for a top line LW with term or second line center with term.

17. Letang is somehow in the allstar game. He was BAD the first half of the year, but in the last 10 games or so, he's been himself.

18. The trade rumors about him surprised me though. No, he isn't being traded. But when the rumors first came out, I was surprised. You don't just trade a #1RHD because they are struggling. The rumors were true at first, then when JR realized he couldn't get what he thought for Letamg, he leaked that Letang isn't being traded to the Pittsburgh Beat guys.

19. Speaking of Letang . . . why is he on 1PP over Schultz? Statistical breakdown:

Letang(PP): 179.8 TOI(time on ice in minutes), 60 TSA(total shots attempted), 43.3 SThr%(% of shots that got on net), 4.7 PTS/60(points per 60 minutes), 8.7 S/60(shots on goal per 60 minutes), 107.8 CF/60(corsi for per 60 minutes)

Schultz(PP): 76.5 TOI, 30 TSA, 46,7 SThr%, 5.5 PTS/60, 11.0 S/60, 99.7 CF/60

Take into consideration that Letang plays 1PP and Schultz plays 2PP and you have your answer.

20. For my last thought, I will be talking about Riley Sheahan, in particular his 5v5 play this year. His stats 5v5 with PIT: 50.7 CF%, -2.8 CF% rel, 66.3 dZS%, 5.9 PTS/60, 4G+10A=15P.

If he got more oZS%, he'd have more points. He is a great defensive cneter, and that is why his dZS% is high. He should be a great 4C come playoffs. Also, he was so cheap to aquire.

Thank you for reading and please comment questions that you'd like me to answer in depth. I plan on doing this every week on Saturday or Sunday. Thank you again!