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High risk trade deadline if Kuznetsov is on LTIR for season

Created by: Eli
Team: 2017-18 Washington Capitals
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 28, 2018
Published: Jan. 28, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Caps giving up a lot to get much better for the playoffs. Vrana and Bowey come back up a couple games before the playoffs, and this team has greatly improved its depth on both sides of the defense, keeps the depth it had at goalie, and, ideally, if Kuznetsov comes back in time for the playoffs, has insane depth at center. The cost is a lot higher (and I may be off by a medium prospect on some trades), but this lineup looks like a juggernaut.
Trades
1.
NYR
  1. Johansen, Lucas
  2. 2018 1st round pick (WSH)
  3. 2020 4th round pick (WSH)
2.
WSH
  1. 2018 4th round pick (ANA)
3.
OTT
  1. Connolly, Brett
  2. 2018 2nd round pick (FLA)
4.
WSH
  1. Schenn, Luke ($625,000 retained)
ARI
  1. Carlson, Adam
  2. O'Brien, Liam
  3. 2018 4th round pick (WSH)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the ANA
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
2019
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
2020
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the WSH
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$75,000,000$68,920,107$4,978$0$6,079,893
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$9,538,462$9,538,462
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$6,700,000$6,700,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$2,000,000$2,000,000
RW
UFA - 1
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
$3,000,000$3,000,000
C, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$1,650,000$1,650,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C
UFA - 1
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 8
$650,000$650,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$1,750,000$1,750,000
C
UFA - 1
$660,000$660,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$1,275,000$1,275,000
LD
UFA - 6
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 4
$6,100,000$6,100,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$4,700,000$4,700,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$3,966,667$3,966,667
RD
UFA - 1
$1,500,000$1,500,000
G
UFA - 1
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LD
UFA - 2
$625,000$625,000
RD
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
LD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$3,900,000$3,900,000
C
UFA - 8

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Jan. 28, 2018 at 10:05 a.m.
#1
Who adds what?
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I know, I know, sitting Djoos is madness, but that third pairing is all toughness. Maybe Djoos cycles through with DSP and Chia Pet at third line wing, just to stay sharp and maybe improve his understanding of the offensive game. Even if he plays full time at wing next season, it didn't hurt the development of Ken Klee, Dustin Byfuglien, or Brent Burns. And it's good for teams to have a backup defenseman in the lineup in case of injury. Obvioulsy Bowey and Vrana are back on the roster in time for the playoffs. Vrana grabs a top nine spot from Stephenson. Kuznetsov returning pushes Eller to wing, and Chia to the press box. So if everyone is healthy for day one of they playoffs it looks something like this:

Ovechkin Backstrom WIlson
Vrana Kuznetsov Oshie
Eller Brassard Grabner
Stephenson Beagle Burakovsky
Smith-Pelly Chiasson

Orlov Niskanen
McDonagh Carlson
Orpik Schenn
Djoos Bowey

Holtby
Grubauer

I think that's enough talent and scoring depth to contend, and enough grit and defense to fight off other tough teams in the East. I especially like the depth at LHD, where Orlov, McDonagh, and Orpik combine for an average of 70 minutes a night, which means they have the endurance to keep checking opposing right wings through overtime.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 10:12 a.m.
#2
Former Hockey Fan
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This is definitely a high risk high reward situation. Luckily Kuznetsov's injury doesn't seem to be that bad according to Trotz. The main probem with this is that Washington's prospect cupboard is already bare, and shelling it out even more could set them back by years. Something like this could win a Stanley Cup, but it can also set you up to rebuild for the next 10 years.
Eli liked this.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 10:40 a.m.
#3
James Dolan Smells
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Don't really like that return at all for the NYR.

Trading your captain/best player and a 25+ goal scorer to a divisional rival and only to receive a prospect, a first round pick, and a fourth round pick we won't see until two years after.

Terrible for the Rangers. Can definitely get better value elsewhere.

Sens trade is kinda rough too.

A 'meh' bottom 6 sniper and a second round pick for their second line center seems like a poor return considering they traded Zibanejad and 2nd for him alone.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 11:02 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Hockeyfan5699
Don't really like that return at all for the NYR.

Trading your captain/best player and a 25+ goal scorer to a divisional rival and only to receive a prospect, a first round pick, and a fourth round pick we won't see until two years after.

Terrible for the Rangers. Can definitely get better value elsewhere.

Sens trade is kinda rough too.

A 'meh' bottom 6 sniper and a second round pick for their second line center seems like a poor return considering they traded Zibanejad and 2nd for him alone.


Yeah, there are ups and downs to every person, but you're being pretty cynical, here.

Johansen hasn't yet played in the NHL,but that's probably for the sake of keeping him RFA longer. He's a recent first round pick, a top pairing defender on a good AHL club, and is going to be an NHL defenseman for a long time. He's the Caps' best defensive prospect, and while they don't have very many prospects, they have some pretty good ones. Adding in a first should bring back someone else.

Brett Connolly is a recentish top ten overall pick who has auditioned as a top six winger with three NHL clubs, and has one more goal than Derrick Brassard this season, in half the playing time, without power plays. He's a top six winger now on most teams, but especially on a rebuilding club, and he is signed through next year at a very team-friendly 1.5 million cap hit. The Caps consider that deal (let alone throw in a pick) to replace Kuznetsov at 2C. Of course, they could also just stick Burakovsky there, but Brassard has more experience, and will be more defensively sound.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 11:18 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: Eli
Yeah, there are ups and downs to every person, but you're being pretty cynical, here.

Johansen hasn't yet played in the NHL,but that's probably for the sake of keeping him RFA longer. He's a recent first round pick, a top pairing defender on a good AHL club, and is going to be an NHL defenseman for a long time. He's the Caps' best defensive prospect, and while they don't have very many prospects, they have some pretty good ones. Adding in a first should bring back someone else.

Brett Connolly is a recentish top ten overall pick who has auditioned as a top six winger with three NHL clubs, and has one more goal than Derrick Brassard this season, in half the playing time, without power plays. He's a top six winger now on most teams, but especially on a rebuilding club, and he is signed through next year at a very team-friendly 1.5 million cap hit. The Caps consider that deal (let alone throw in a pick) to replace Kuznetsov at 2C. Of course, they could also just stick Burakovsky there, but Brassard has more experience, and will be more defensively sound.


Ottawa accepts because they improve their offense, reduce their cap hit by $3.5M (roughly the amount they just claimed they're losing every month with their current team), and get a 2nd round draft pick on top of that.

New York certainly shops around elsewhere, but not every team is looking to trade a first round pick, let alone two, which is what this offer is. I think they at least take the call and talk it through, even if they try to add a less important prospect and a late draft choice, or bargain down from Grabner to Nash or Zuccarello (neither of whom actually fits the Caps salary cap, even with salary retained and with Kuznetsov on LTIR). Maybe they settle on Johansen an a 2nd? Johansen and two 3rds? Or maybe they prefer Djoos instead of Johansen, since he's already proven himself as a middle pairing NHL defenseman. The Caps probably would give Djoos and a 2nd for McDonagh.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 11:23 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: EthanK24
This is definitely a high risk high reward situation. Luckily Kuznetsov's injury doesn't seem to be that bad according to Trotz. The main probem with this is that Washington's prospect cupboard is already bare, and shelling it out even more could set them back by years. Something like this could win a Stanley Cup, but it can also set you up to rebuild for the next 10 years.


It doesn't have to be a big injury to put someone on LTIR. He just has to not be able to play for a week or so. Then it's up to the team when to activate him, once he's healthy. This is a commonly used salary cap loophole. Also, Trotz would never acknowledge that an injury was bad. A player could be missing a leg, and the Caps' organization would say, "no, it's not very serious. I think it's something in his lower body, but that's really between him and the team doctors to work out."

Thank you so much for answering my main question, of whether these additions make the Caps more of a contender! I think so, too.
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Jan. 28, 2018 at 12:05 p.m.
#7
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As a Rangers fan, i like the idea of the trade. however i think we are another Caps 1st away from a deal here.
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Jan. 28, 2018 at 3:46 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: MooseOtter
As a Rangers fan, i like the idea of the trade. however i think we are another Caps 1st away from a deal here.


For the sake of the Caps' future, I hope not. McDonagh would be a great #4 defenseman for the Caps, and would replace Alzner as a shutdown defenseman against top talent in a way that Orpik's footspeed keeps him from managing.

The Caps just picked Johansen with their first in 2016. He's been just an injury away from his NHL debut all season. He's playing top pairing minutes in the AHL. So he's worth more than just a first pick. http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=199937

It's hard to predict the market economics of an NHL trade deadline deal. The Caps could certainly pursue other left handed defensive partners for Carlson. I think Marco Scandella would be a great fit. Jonas Brodin would be awesome. Plenty of Caps fans have convinced themselves Hjalmarsson is still good enough to make an impact in a top four role. Djoos keeps getting better, and might be good enough.

If I had the job with the Caps, I would not give three first round draft picks for a #4 defenseman. Two would be a stretch, but I do have a lot of respect for McDonagh, and if the Rangers are able to throw in a wing or, now that Kuznetsov is hurt, a center, who doesn't rock the boat in terms of the Caps' long term ability to re-sign John Carlson, then a 2016 first and a 2018 first are reasonable to rebuild the defense that the Rangers participated in wrecking through free agency last summer.
Jan. 28, 2018 at 4:44 p.m.
#9
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I think if the Rangers aren't giving back a solid goal scoring forward, the Caps probably settle for Alex Edler, who also plays 23 minutes, also has about 20 points, also starts most of his shifts in the defensive zone, and probably is a heck of a lot cheaper: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/e/edleral01.html For three first round picks to the Rangers, the Caps should be brining in McDonagh, Grabner, and Zibanejad. Because that's how rebuilding works for most teams in hockey. You give up a solid roster player to get another team's first pick and maybe they throw in a prospect to help tide them through until that pick pans out. But when teams decide to rebuild, it's not so much about the quantity of draft picks, as it is about breaking the team down to where it can get one of the best players available, for a couple years in a row.

If the Caps can't get even Edler for Johansen, then I think they keep Johansen and let Djoos play in the playoffs, with Chorney to back him up if Trotz decides to bench him for a bit. Even with retained salary, they're probably not picking up a Duncan Keith, Marc Staal, Dion Phaneuf, or Karl Alzner, although the latter would be pretty funny, and a couple of Canadiens fans have suggested it. Actually, yeah. Let's go with that.

If McDonagh were signed for seven years, at 5M, sure, three first rounders. But for a year and a half, two is already a ridiculous overpayment.
 
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