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Core at Not-Too-Team-Friendly Deals

Created by: jfalstaff
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 12, 2018
Published: Jul. 12, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
The figures of 34, 16, and 29 are based on comparable producers in their first 2 seasons and C.H. % of their 2nd contracts.

The 'friendly' part comes in 2 ways:

(1) Matthews and Marner sign their extensions *this* summer before having a 3rd year of production factor into the contract. For Marner, in particular, who just might manage 90pts, this would likely add another $1-2m to his AAV.

(2) Tavares sets an upper limit on contracts, so Matthews is about $.5m less than he 'ought' to be.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$11,000,000
8$9,000,000
6$6,750,000
3$1,667,000
4$2,750,000
2$1,200,000
2$995,000
2$875,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$5,750,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. 2019 7th round pick (NYR)
2.
TOR
  1. 2019 2nd round pick (LAK)
3.
TOR
  1. 2019 3rd round pick (DAL)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2019
Logo of the LAK
Logo of the DAL
Logo of the NYR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,500,000$74,473,110$0$785,000$8,026,890
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
$1,667,000$1,667,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C
UFA - 5
$6,750,000$6,750,000
RW
UFA - 5
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RW
UFA - 3
$995,000$995,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
$694,444$694,444 (Performance Bonus$70,000$70K)
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$5,750,000$5,750,000
LD
UFA - 4
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
$1,200,000$1,200,000
LD
UFA - 2
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 3
$875,000$875,000
G
UFA - 1
$697,500$697,500 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
LD
UFA - 1

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Jul. 12, 2018 at 1:38 a.m.
#1
GM - Canucks
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You must be crazy if you think the Leafs would actually trade Brown and Hyman who are great young players on very reasonable contracts.
Jul. 12, 2018 at 2:30 a.m.
#2
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On 6-8 year deals I think Nylander is at 6-6.5 and Marner is at 7-7.5 , if they signed this summer.
I’m unsure why people are saying 9-10 million per year for Marner. He is not Kucherov or Draistal or Kane... he has played 2 years with 1 20 goal season and a career high of 69 points. That don’t get you Kucherov money. I compare him, cap hit concerned, to Pasternak and Gaudreau and considering the cap has been raised since they were extended I think 7-7.5 is market value, I would be shocked if he gets anymore then 7.5
Jul. 12, 2018 at 9:23 a.m.
#3
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Give em all 15M and trade everyone. 3 on 3 anyone?
Jul. 12, 2018 at 9:23 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: SirCharles
On 6-8 year deals I think Nylander is at 6-6.5 and Marner is at 7-7.5 , if they signed this summer.
I’m unsure why people are saying 9-10 million per year for Marner. He is not Kucherov or Draistal or Kane... he has played 2 years with 1 20 goal season and a career high of 69 points. That don’t get you Kucherov money. I compare him, cap hit concerned, to Pasternak and Gaudreau and considering the cap has been raised since they were extended I think 7-7.5 is market value, I would be shocked if he gets anymore then 7.5


Don't you know? The Leafs have the greatest players of all time...and Leaf fans suck at math
Jul. 12, 2018 at 3:02 p.m.
#5
Thread Starter
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Quoting: SirCharles
On 6-8 year deals I think Nylander is at 6-6.5 and Marner is at 7-7.5 , if they signed this summer.
I’m unsure why people are saying 9-10 million per year for Marner. He is not Kucherov or Draistal or Kane... he has played 2 years with 1 20 goal season and a career high of 69 points. That don’t get you Kucherov money. I compare him, cap hit concerned, to Pasternak and Gaudreau and considering the cap has been raised since they were extended I think 7-7.5 is market value, I would be shocked if he gets anymore then 7.5



Here are the comparisons I was looking at. It's by PPG, and I include the ages, since Marner's NHL productivity is coming at an earlier age than a lot of his production peers.

Pastrnak — 123 pts in 173GP (18-20yo) = .71 PPG. Signs after expiration of RFA contract for 8.89% C.H., for 6 years.

Taylor Hall — 95 points in 126 GP (19-20yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after 2nd season for 10% of the cap, for 7 years.

Vladimir Tarasenko = 135 points in 179GP (21-23 yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after contract ELC expires for 10.27% of Cap, for 8 years.

Bobby Ryan — 131 points in 168 GP (20-22yo) = .78PPG. Signs after expiration of ELC and holding out into September for 8.59% of cap, for 5 years.

Eberle — 119 points in 147 GP (20-21 yo) = .81 PPG. Signs after 2nd season season at 10% of Cap, for 6 years,

Mitch goes here. 130 points in 159 games (19-20 yo) = .82 PPG.

Gaudreau — 142 pts in 159 GP (21-22yo) = .89 PPG. Signs after ELC expires and holding out into Oct. for 9.25% of Cap, for 6 years.

So... I don't know. If it's Gaudreau, who was underpaid, you're at $7.5m on a deal that doesn't eat up many UFA years. But Marner's doing it younger, like Eberle and Hall, and I don't see the Leafs wanting to go less than 7 years. Nor do I see them dragging this out into next fall, since they'll be ripe for an offer sheet.

So, I'm figuring an Eberle and Hall sorta deal -- 10% of an ~82.5m cap for 6/7 years, and coming up with $8.25m as a starting point. Then, what would a Tarasenko-length deal (eating UFA years) be for a guy who's been more productive and done it younger? About $9m, or about 11% of the Cap.
Jul. 12, 2018 at 6:34 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: jfalstaff
Here are the comparisons I was looking at. It's by PPG, and I include the ages, since Marner's NHL productivity is coming at an earlier age than a lot of his production peers.

Pastrnak — 123 pts in 173GP (18-20yo) = .71 PPG. Signs after expiration of RFA contract for 8.89% C.H., for 6 years.

Taylor Hall — 95 points in 126 GP (19-20yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after 2nd season for 10% of the cap, for 7 years.

Vladimir Tarasenko = 135 points in 179GP (21-23 yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after contract ELC expires for 10.27% of Cap, for 8 years.

Bobby Ryan — 131 points in 168 GP (20-22yo) = .78PPG. Signs after expiration of ELC and holding out into September for 8.59% of cap, for 5 years.

Eberle — 119 points in 147 GP (20-21 yo) = .81 PPG. Signs after 2nd season season at 10% of Cap, for 6 years,

Mitch goes here. 130 points in 159 games (19-20 yo) = .82 PPG.

Gaudreau — 142 pts in 159 GP (21-22yo) = .89 PPG. Signs after ELC expires and holding out into Oct. for 9.25% of Cap, for 6 years.

So... I don't know. If it's Gaudreau, who was underpaid, you're at $7.5m on a deal that doesn't eat up many UFA years. But Marner's doing it younger, like Eberle and Hall, and I don't see the Leafs wanting to go less than 7 years. Nor do I see them dragging this out into next fall, since they'll be ripe for an offer sheet.

So, I'm figuring an Eberle and Hall sorta deal -- 10% of an ~82.5m cap for 6/7 years, and coming up with $8.25m as a starting point. Then, what would a Tarasenko-length deal (eating UFA years) be for a guy who's been more productive and done it younger? About $9m, or about 11% of the Cap.


I love Marner, I think he is a star, I think eventually a superstar.
9 million for 20 goals is too much. The league premium is goals.
 
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