Quoting: SirCharles
On 6-8 year deals I think Nylander is at 6-6.5 and Marner is at 7-7.5 , if they signed this summer.
I’m unsure why people are saying 9-10 million per year for Marner. He is not Kucherov or Draistal or Kane... he has played 2 years with 1 20 goal season and a career high of 69 points. That don’t get you Kucherov money. I compare him, cap hit concerned, to Pasternak and Gaudreau and considering the cap has been raised since they were extended I think 7-7.5 is market value, I would be shocked if he gets anymore then 7.5
Here are the comparisons I was looking at. It's by PPG, and I include the ages, since Marner's NHL productivity is coming at an earlier age than a lot of his production peers.
Pastrnak — 123 pts in 173GP (18-20yo) = .71 PPG. Signs after expiration of RFA contract for 8.89% C.H., for 6 years.
Taylor Hall — 95 points in 126 GP (19-20yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after 2nd season for 10% of the cap, for 7 years.
Vladimir Tarasenko = 135 points in 179GP (21-23 yo) = .75 PPG. Signs after contract ELC expires for 10.27% of Cap, for 8 years.
Bobby Ryan — 131 points in 168 GP (20-22yo) = .78PPG. Signs after expiration of ELC and holding out into September for 8.59% of cap, for 5 years.
Eberle — 119 points in 147 GP (20-21 yo) = .81 PPG. Signs after 2nd season season at 10% of Cap, for 6 years,
Mitch goes here. 130 points in 159 games (19-20 yo) = .82 PPG.
Gaudreau — 142 pts in 159 GP (21-22yo) = .89 PPG. Signs after ELC expires and holding out into Oct. for 9.25% of Cap, for 6 years.
So... I don't know. If it's Gaudreau, who was underpaid, you're at $7.5m on a deal that doesn't eat up many UFA years. But Marner's doing it younger, like Eberle and Hall, and I don't see the Leafs wanting to go less than 7 years. Nor do I see them dragging this out into next fall, since they'll be ripe for an offer sheet.
So, I'm figuring an Eberle and Hall sorta deal -- 10% of an ~82.5m cap for 6/7 years, and coming up with $8.25m as a starting point. Then, what would a Tarasenko-length deal (eating UFA years) be for a guy who's been more productive and done it younger? About $9m, or about 11% of the Cap.