This look pretty accurate. Cap space minus projected bonuses give the Leafs about 2.8m is cap space this year, assuming there is no PB carryover wanted. As you suggest the cap space could be higher if players don't reach their PB goals. Maybe the Leafs don't have enough cap room to get a player of consequence at the beginning of the year, but half way through the year 2.8 cap space gets you a 5.6m player. Maybe a trade as teams become sellers later in the season.

Just a further note. Next year the Leafs probably don't have need to put Horton "on the roster" as the PB hit will be just about half a million due to the fact many players will be on regular contracts not ELCs.
So the Leafs cap "goes up, by 5.3 and 2.8m and 4.5, next year because Horton and two years of PB won't be in the 2019/20 cap. That's 12.5m

I agree with this. I can't see the Performance Bonus being over $3,770,000 at the end of this coming season. We also will be seeing the contract of Hainsey off the books with a possible $2 - $3 MIL Cap increase.

That gives $3.1 Cap Space + no $2.6 PB penalty meaning no need to keep Horton's $5.3 on the books and no $3.0 Hainsey contract + $2 MIL Cap increase amounts to at least $17 MIL available to sign Matthews ($10 MIL more than this year), Marner ($6 MIL more), Kapanen and Johnsson and decide what to do with Gardiner.

I would like to trade Gardiner with Brown for a $5.5 MIL RHD (whether that is a larger salary retained player who has been coached by Babcock previously and has never been known for smooth skating or a player that is worth up to $5.5 MIL).

I wish I understood this PB/LTIR stuff. It looks to me like you are telling me that Horton has to be on the roster on Opening Day and then presumably gets sent to the LTIR and a Marlie gets promoted to fill the 23rd slot, but I have trouble following the ramifications for 2019. I'm about to post a trade idea for this year and would love for you guys to take a look at it. Thanks!

Hey OldNYIfan,

There are 3 things at play here: 1) You usually would use the LTIR amount to get a replacement player for up to that amount.
2) You cannot use LTIR to pay the ELC Performance Bonuses so you have to make sure at the 1st day of the season you have enough to pay the PB before you put players on LTIR.
3) If you can go the season without putting a player on LTIR than you can multiply the amount of opening day cap space by how far in to the season the league is. ie: Leafs have $2MIL opening day after paying last season's PB and having no one on LTIR then quarter of the way into the season they could trade for a $4 MIL player, half way through the season they could trade for a player with a $6 MIL cap hit. 75% into the season they could trade for a $8 MIL cap hit.

Does that help?

Thanks! I'll try hard to understand it so my construction of teams is more informed.