Nylander Blinks 30th of November

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: DrumMan44

Team: 2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Nov. 15, 2018

Published: Nov. 15, 2018

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Thanks to the excellent analysis from CapFriendly, they show that if Willy signs a 5 year, 7.5 million dollar deal (conceding a bit on term and salary) at this end of November, his cap hit for year 1 will be $10.2 million, with years 2-5 settling at an AAV of $7,024,194, which would be a very good contract to have him locked in.

While technically the Leafs would be under the cap, bonuses would almost certainly push them over the edge, causing an overage penalty next year when the Cap really counts.

To make the extremely high AAV work for year one, I have used Leivo and a second as bait for Montreal to take on the contract of Nathan Horton. Montreal is re-tooling and would love another 2nd rounder and a good young forward in Leivo. Horton's contract is only for two more years and they can easily swallow the cap hit or put him on LTIR while they build their new team.

Before everyone jumps down my throat about LTIR, please note that the rules when it applies to bonuses are different than traditional salary. Getting Horton cleanly off the books will allow for some breathing room so that the overage doesn't roll into next year.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Nylander, William		1	$10,287,402

Trades

TOR

2019 4th round pick (CGY)

MTL

Horton, Nathan
Leivo, Josh
2019 2nd round pick (TOR)

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2018
2019
2020
2021

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
24	$79,500,000	$72,270,735	$2,550,000	$6,250,000	$7,229,265

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 3	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 7	Marner, Mitchell $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW UFA - 1
Marleau, Patrick $6,250,000$6,250,000 LW, C NMC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $925,000$925,000 ($2,850,000$3M) C UFA - 1	Nylander, William $10,287,402$10,287,402 RW UFA - 6
Ennis, Tyler $650,000$650,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 4	Brown, Connor $2,100,000$2,100,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
	Lindholm, Pär $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, C UFA - 1	Kapanen, Kasperi $863,333$863,333 RW UFA - 1
Johnsson, Andreas $787,500$787,500 LW, RW UFA - 1	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 4	Hainsey, Ron $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Gardiner, Jake $4,050,000$4,050,000 LD UFA - 1	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 6	Sparks, Garret $675,000$675,000 G UFA - 1
Ozhiganov, Igor $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) RD UFA - 1	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 2
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Moore, Trevor $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $800,000$800,000 LD UFA - 1

Nov. 15, 2018 at 11:12 a.m.

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 28,053

Likes: 14,666

Why would Montreal do that? Late 2nd round picks and fringe nhlers arent worth paying horton

Nov. 15, 2018 at 11:55 a.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

This idea needs to be put to bed. All of those cap savings come directly out of nylanders pocket in year one. On a 7.5m contract x 5 years nylander loses 2.325 (to get the savings year one has to have a 7.5m salary not bonus) so he makes 5.15m year one and 7.5 x4... so 35.15m over 5 years. Why would toronto not sign him to 7x5???? With max bonus year 1??? We would save more money than what you are proposing and nylander would make the same amount.

Nov. 15, 2018 at 11:55 a.m.

tomkinoo

Dubas for Prez

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 219

Likes: 57

Quoting: littlejerryseinfeld

Why would Montreal do that? Late 2nd round picks and fringe nhlers arent worth paying horton

I'd argue it would be worth it, Montreal has nobody big coming up on the books in those 2 years, and Leivo is a Top 9 forward that's great on the power play.

Horton would come off there books just in time for Max Domi's extension.

Also it's not like Montreal is strapped for cash like some franchises

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:15 p.m.

DrumMan44

Thread Starter

Drumman44

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 703

Likes: 263

Quoting: Jamiepo

Hi. I'm not sure we're talking about the same thing here. Please see the below table from Capfriendly. My understanding is that the salary is the same for each year, but since the salary is spread over a smaller amount of games (due to signing well into the season), the AAV reflects a much pricier contract in year one.

https://twitter.com/capfriendly/status/1045315053539545088?lang=en

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:19 p.m.

tomkinoo

Dubas for Prez

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 219

Likes: 57

Quoting: Jamiepo

The cap hit of the years after the first year of the contract is calculated first:
Cap hit after the first year = (First year salary * season days remaining / total season days + contract value remaining) / contract years

The first years cap hit is then calculated:
First years cap hit = cap hit after the first year * total season days / season days remaining

That's from the frequently asked question on here, what's your source for knowing that the signing bonus would be excluded from this calculation. Normally the signing bonus gets included in a player's salary for that year.

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:31 p.m.

Jah1722

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 5,422

Likes: 2,903

Quoting: tomkinoo

Cap friendly just tweeted out a table for signing bonus and the savings in year 2+ is minimal.

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:36 p.m.

tomkinoo

Dubas for Prez

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 219

Likes: 57

Quoting: Jah1722

Cap friendly just tweeted out a table for signing bonus and the savings in year 2+ is minimal.

Sweet thanks

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:43 p.m.

DrumMan44

Thread Starter

Drumman44

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 703

Likes: 263

Quoting: Jah1722

Cap friendly just tweeted out a table for signing bonus and the savings in year 2+ is minimal.

Interesting. So for signing bonus heavy contracts, it's not much of a savings at all.

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:48 p.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: tomkinoo

Signing bonus is not included on the calculation provided because it is not added. I am the source lol. I just ran the math on the graph provided by cap friendly. You will notice that there is an asterisk on top denoting that all calculations below are provided that the first year salary = aav.

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:52 p.m.

#10

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: kzaker12

Interesting. So for signing bonus heavy contracts, it's not much of a savings at all.

Nope, we would be further ahead giving nylander the signing bonus and just paying less throughout the contract..

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:56 p.m.

#11

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,157

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: Jah1722

Cap friendly just tweeted out a table for signing bonus and the savings in year 2+ is minimal.

I think I may have stirred this up by arguing on here and twitter lol. I’ve been trying to squash this ridiculous idea of a staged hold out as this would only benefit the leafs and not nylanader at all.

Nov. 15, 2018 at 12:59 p.m.

#12

Jah1722

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 5,422

Likes: 2,903

Quoting: Jamiepo

Bob McKenzie mentioned all of it yesterday on twitter. CapFriendly ran the numbers for him

Nov. 15, 2018 at 1:09 p.m.

#13

littlejerryseinfeld

Joined: Nov. 2017

Posts: 28,053

Likes: 14,666

Quoting: tomkinoo

Leivo is not a top 9 forward. Jesus.

And no, a 2nd round pick isnt worth 10.6 million dollars

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