Holy smokes bud, chill out.

Let's assume the cap is at $82.5 million next year (after spending all day telling people not to spread unreliable information, you just throw that one out there, but ok...). You're correct, the Leafs would have about $38 million in cap space. After signing Matthews and Marner half of that will be gone... $19 million left. Now you still have to sign Nylander, Kapanen, Johnsson and Lindholm. Let's be conservative and say $12 million for the four-pack of Scandinavians... $7 million in cap space remaining. So far the Leafs have 10 forwards, 4 defensemen and 1 goalie under contract. You need to roster at least 3 more forwards, 3 more defensemen, and a back-up goalie for less than $7 million (if the cap rises to $82.5M like we assumed). Doable? for sure. But then you can kiss Gardiner goodbye. Hainsey too if he wants anything over $2 million on a one-year deal. So then your blueline looks something like this:

Rielly / Zaitsev
Dermott / Ozhiganov
Rosen / Liljegren
Holl

Considering the ask is in the range of 7.5 to 8 million. And the leafs are no where close to that offer taking the qualifying offer will be in the long run in his best interest. He will easily make up for it in the end.
If he signs a contract for his ask, in 2 years he breaks even. Everything after that is extra from the low ball tornoto offer.

You seem to be really bad at math to not figure that out.
The expected cap space next year is $30,186,667 + a 2-4 million gain I'll be generous and give you 34 mil.
You also seem extremely bad at math trying to piece the rest of the roaster together. Matthews and Marner will cost in the range of 21-23 million by themselves. That leaves you with 13-11 million. What are you going to do, give league minimum to the whole rest of the roaster? Good luck with that. You will only have 13 players signed with at least 10 more to be signed including Nylander with 12-10 million in cap space. (minus the 1 million in extra cap room teams like to carry for injury reasons)
But go on tell me how that's gonna work out for you when you have to spend 7 million of that on Nylander. It won't. Everyone knows it won't. 5 million at best won't sign 9 players. He'll walk.

Haven't read your response yet, but I wanted to comment on the cap thing. At the last board of governors meeting Berman said as per friedge that they expect a cap of 81.5 million with no NHLPA inflator. The NHLPA likewise came out and committed to an inflator of 1.25%. that comes to 82.5, so don't go telling me about spreading false info. Just cause you don't pay attention doesn't mean no one does.

That's right. I don't expect gards or hainsey to come back. Don't want hainsey. Dermott is the real deal, and babs is transitioning him to riellys right. Both Sandin and Liljegren look really good, and zaitzev has been fine. He is not, and wasn't supposed to be a points guy, but a more defensively sound pick carrying defenseman, which he is. I expect that next year the lines look like

Rielly-Dermott
Ozhiganov-zaitzev
Rosen -Liljegren

Maybe Sandin can make the team, who knows. The point is that it is all well and doable, but I think Dubas is trying hard to get everyone to good contracts so that he can keep gards, or at least get someone in Ufa, not that it is likely.

And I know one what you are thinking about oz-zaitzev.
Don't believe the negative hype around him,he is actually fine. I think part of his problem is the system, as his biggest flaws seem to be encouraged by the play structure (stretch passes and such, he is a puck carrier). Either way he is still a decent but overpaid 2nd pairing guy that if fully developed might turn out to not be overpaid. With ox on the left, he and zaitzev played together in the khl before we stole zaitzev, and they were killing it. The idea is to rekindle that magic until the Marleau deal is off the books and we can replace him/move oz down in the lineup.
Just look at my 1st acgm on my profile. Some things have changed since I made that but we have more than enough cap space to account for it. Changes I would make include paying nyalnder and Marner more, maybe add 340k to Matthews contract and carrick is gone but you get the idea. That's also with a 81.5 cap.

Just ignore spelling, am on mobile and autocorrect doesn't like hockey talk

Ahem* Horton LTIRetirement. That is all.

You are also a touch high on Matthews plus Marner, it will be under 20 million for them (11.34 + 8)

Am on mobile, in morning I will switch to computer and copy paste something Into where that I'm pretty sure I've given you multiple times. It all works. Just because you don't want to see it doesn't mean it won't

And your ******* high if you think Nylander signs his qa.

Well maybe you should preface with that information next time. Either that or maybe take it easy on us regular folk who don't spend every waking minute scouring every detail of every article related to hockey.

It's all good, the grammar police are on holiday...

I actually really like Zaitsev. He had a rough year last year, but he's a solid 2nd-pair guy who chews up a lot of tough minutes. Even though he's probably not the first guy you'd think of when talking about the Leafs' core, I think he's a very important piece of the puzzle going forward.

It's taken some time for me to warm up to Ozhiganov, but I feel like he's acclimating well and improving, albeit slowly. Jury's still out though.

We can all agree Rielly's a stud, and Dermott's got the potential to be one too.

I can see Rosen, Liljegren, Borgman, Sandin, Holl, and Andrew Nielsen battling it out for one spot on the blueline, but the Leafs really need at least one more NHL veteran to round out that defensive core. That's why a Nylander (or maybe a Kapanen) trade makes so much sense. Adding a Montour or a Pesce or a Dumba to that core of Rielly/Dermott/Zaitsev would just go such a long way towards solidifying the foundation of that back-end. Last thing I'd want the Leafs to do is rush a Liljegren or a Sandin. Let them season in the AHL until they're ripe and ready.

under 20 LOL.... good luck on that. When Matthews gets 13 that's wrecked. If Marner gets only 8 you are at 21.
Nylander may have no choice but to sign it. But a 1 year deal is what will happen one way or another.