pharrow

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I would be a great GM, hit me up NHL
Forum: Armchair-GM13 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>What’s making you look foolish is a 21 year study looking at a 10 year period between 1990 and 1991. Perhaps we should look at this Millenium no?

In the 2018 season; of all the NHL players that played a minimum of 15 games in the season, only 39% came from the 1st round of the draft and 15 games is a pretty low bar to set.

You can take take any single season and figure this out and willing to bet if you even move that to 21 games, you’d see that 39% slide down even more so.

Now if you want to get real here, assume that Saad returns a bottom 1/2 1st rounder, what do you think those odds are of landing a NHL player and moreso an impact player?

Simple deductive reasoning and common sense would allow you to see that aside from the TDL next season if the Hawks are clearly out, moving Saad for a 1st round pick makes very little sense. Like most fans, especially on here, draft picks outside the top 10 are highly overrated.</div></div>

you keep trying to knock a legit study on draft picks and games played. As if the data is some sort of mythical thing.

You really just don't get the argument. Saad is little more value than a rental. He has one year of term left that's it.
You think you are getting the moon for a rental winger. You are not.

Meanwhile you are stuck in mediocrity trying to rebuild while clutching on. Take a good look at that team. That's not a retool going on. It's a straight full rebuild.
The only players there other than Kane that are being held is because no one else is trading for those huge contracts. Toews is not worth 10 million a year. If they could dump that they would.
Seabrook is also dead weight only there because they can't get rid of him.
Keith is the only other one there that might actually still be worth his value.
Everyone else is younger tending to the 25 and under catagory.

You hold Saad, a rental, and get no return. Cool. where does that leave you?
No where.
Come FA he's gone. Because why would anyone who wants to win stay with a team spinning it's wheels and going no where.
Forum: Armchair-GM22 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>You are wrong on the odds of a 1st rounder becoming a NHL player; they are roughly 30% chance that a 1st rounder becomes a full time NHL player for 1 season or more. Furthermore, those odds go down dramatically when you exclude top 10 picks. So unless you think Saad is going to pull a top 10 pick, then anyone who’d trade him for a mid 1st or late 1st in the offseason and not at the up and coming TDL (if the Hawks are out of it) has no clue what they are doing.</div></div>

<a href="https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks</a>

played in at least 200 contests. 63% of first round picks played but less than 25% of second round picks survived and only 12% of third rounder selections.

I don't know why you are even arguing this.
This is one of the most well known studies out there and even it is old the numbers are most likely improved today with the amount of data that is collected on players today compared to the past.

200 games is over 2 years. It's 50+% for a career player noted as 600 games.

Please, stop making things up and making yourself look foolish.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 hours ago
Thread: What you think
I have a hard time believing they buy out Zaitsev.
A. he probably has some trade value.
B. it doesn't really save anything. Especially when your rookies probably need time to develop.
Drysdale might end up being a really good player, but he's not ready to make the jump to the NHL yet.
If I were OTT I would sent him to the NCAA where the game is faster than the OHL.
It's really the problem with the CHL in that the players are so young that it dilutes the talent for the top talent of the league. It can stunt the growth so to say. But at the NCAA level they are going against older competition and a lot of draft picks, guys who will be FA from a much smaller pool of teams. So the speed of the game is faster and better play.

The CHL has no way of increasing the competition level for guys who are clearly ready for a next step but aren't NHL quality. It's in some sense killing the league. Which is why the NCAA now has 34% of players coming out of it and growing.
You would think they could make 1 smaller league of guys who have already been drafted, let the teams pick who they wish to add, so the competition level rises and the pace and skill of the game increases.
Because from 18-20 it's kind of like a black hole. We know guys are way more talented than their competition but they can't really grow without better competition.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 hours ago
Thread: Cap Stays Put II No Pesce
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>actually this team has a huge advantage if CBO's are brought in. if there is a CBO teams who have more than 1 player they want bought out (Tampa, NJ, etc) Toronto has a free CBO sitting and waiting all that team needs to do is give us a high pick or a defenseman (like mayfield or cernak) and we will buyout that chosen player. If a pick was received, dubas can add it to any trade to upgrade our defense. Overall its a win win for the leafs.</div></div>

I realize that, but it doesn't make up for their cap problems.
You are gonna have to buy out one hell of a cap dump to make it worth someone giving you a quality player and on top of it, they don't have the cap space to really take one. Picks don't really help this team at the moment. They are in win now mode.
JT will be 30 next year. Then you got Matthews contract starting to tick down. You are looking at a 4 year window now. After that all deals are off. Which means picks probably isn't cutting it as they will take years to develop.
So none of their cap issues are solved. They will have to trade someone out to fix the cap. That doesn't help them.
Forum: Armchair-GM23 hours ago
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>He hasn’t played in Columbus now for how long? You clearly haven’t watched him the last 18 months to suggest Chicago should dump him for a 1st. Hopefully you realize that only 1/3rd of 1st round picks become NHL players. It’s ignorant of you to think Saad is only worth that gamble which tells me you don’t know his value and arrogant to continue arguing about it.

Saad is extremely important to this team if they have a chance to make the playoffs or better yet in the playoffs as Saad’s game is more playoff oriented then a lot of players and certainly a rookie.

If you also watched the Hawks enough you’d know when they are playing in sync, they are a good team as demonstrated by beating the best in the league only to falter by loosing a lot of games against lesser teams. The Hawks need a dynamic scoring winger, but are loaded with defensive prospects, loaded with bottoms 6 prospects, and goaltending is strong. The problem is a dynamic winger and you don’t solve that by giving up your best two way defensive winger.</div></div>

He's the same player he was in CBJ lets not pretend he's not.
1st round picks actually have over a 50% chance of becoming an NHL player.

A simple look at this team would tell you the future is in guys 25 and younger. They are not going to "win now."
Stick in mediocrity forever. But if you are going to get somewhere before Kane is too old to be useful you are going to have to go all in on the rebuild instead of thinking you can patchwork it.
You got 1 year left of the guy. You act like you got 5 years control. You don't. He's most likely gone at the end of the season. If he can play for a cup, he will. He can't do that in chicago.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 10:56 pm
Thread: Yupp
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ChiHawk</b></div><div>Maybe he has more value as a rental but hardly are the Blackhawks that far away from the playoffs, so I’d be willing to bet he is only moved at the TDL of the Hawks are out of the race next season.

Let’s not pretend you watch Saad enough to know. He’s a defensive power forward first and foremost and excels at that role who also happened to be on pace for 30 goals. If you don’t watch him on the ice and look at goals and points totals to evaluate him you are missing the point.</div></div>

please don't tell me what I know and don't know about a player. I saw him play plenty with CBJ to know. That's just ignorant and arrogant on your part.

Also, even if CHI did make the playoffs, could you really look at this team and tell me they are a contender.
The answer is no. They would be an also made it.
Why slow the rebuild for nothing?
If they could move him for a 1st, they should.
If you puddle around with being half way in on a rebuild you end up looking like Detroit. In rebuild mode forever.
Just do it.
Forum: Armchair-GMSat at 10:36 pm
Thread: Might as well remove 19-20 off here
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>If you need cap space from Rodriguez, Rikkola and Simon then just don't qualify them, no one is trading for them in the offseason, as playoff depth maybe but not in the summer.

Islanders fans were certain last summer/fall that some team would give a late round pick for Hickey and he ended up on waivers not claimed and sent to the AHL, if not one wanted him I can't see anyone wanting Johnson and I'm not a JJ hater like so many are here, it's just that no one wants an expensive third pairing dman and rebuilding teams would rather give the ice time to a developing player or sign a cheap one or two year depth dman placeholder which there's plenty of availabe in free agency every summer, maybe if you sent some picks/prospects with JJ a team like Detroit would take him but they're not giving a pick for him, not even a late one.

I think Bjustad is probably tradable, this stoppage, him missing so much time and his cap hit might make dealing him difficult though, not sure you'd get a 3rd but I think they'd get at least a 4th round pick.</div></div>

For Rodriguez that might be true.
However, people always are looking for defense and Rikkola has some value there. Simon also has value as a low price forward who can play. I'd much rather have him than say Sam Gagner, especially at a cheaper price. note, I'm not saying any of them will return a 1st. But they will return something and they do have value and could be traded. Neither of them is Hickey.

As for JJ that may or may not be true. It's one of the reasons I didn't spend all the cap space. Because it could very well be they start with him on the roster.
But if they could dump Matta and Gudbranson in the same year....... they will be able to dump JJ as well.
After all, Gudbranson was a 4 million 2 year 3rd pairing D man. JJ is a 3.25 million 3 year D man. Price and value wise you are looking at a really close call there.
Truth is there is never enough defense in the league. It could be they move Rikkola and JJ in the same deal. or JJ and Simon. Whatever. I think the later in the year they move him, the more likely they get a small return.
The point being those 3 teams listed above. All need defense. All of them are in rebuild mode so they aren't going to attract guys who want to win or even look like they have a chance at winning.
I keep going back to DET with him because they have no one.
You got Nemeth who's contract ends next year and will probably be sent out by years end as a rental.
You got DeKeyser who is always hurt and on IR. He played 8 games this year. 52 the year before. He's either tired of losing and just riding IR for the hell of it. Or he's looking like he's busted and done.
Then you have no one. Cholowski is not ready and has not looked good. He's been sent back down to the AHL.
You got McIsaac who is not ready and needs to spend time in the AHL.
And you got Hicketts who is an AHL caliber guy.

We can go round and round on this. And I don't care how you flip it, you got a team that needs 3 LD.
When you need 3LD, and FA isn't giving it to you because there isn't that much defense available. Because everyone worth anything is leaving a hole somewhere else. And you got a slew of guys who are retiring and not really many people coming in to replace them. Much like what you see here in Detroit. It means a guy like JJ can be moved.