30+ is an overly simplistic projection based. He'll get to 20-25, especially considering his role will drop with the return of Nylander. Kadri vs. Matthews as your center makes a difference.

for sure, but matthews hasn't been his center all that much, and he's still scoring. As much as 30+ is an over simplification, I think it's a simplification to say that he'll get between 20-25. He could get more, he could get less. I like the way he's playing and think he could easily get 30.

Four goals in the last 17 games vs. four goals in the first 7 games. Where's the trend? Pace down is the trend. Pace will continue the trend with 3rd line minutes and talent. Kap has 2 points when he's on the ice with Kadri. If he doesn't get bumped down then he could approach 30, but not on the 3rd line.

i just don't see him only scoring 10 goals in the next 54 games. I kind of think 15 is on the low end as well. 20 might be a bit on the high end. gun to my head he finishes around 28 goals, and that gets you paid in this league, even as an RFA.

Full agree with you on that goal total getting him paid. I have a hard time believing he takes $2.5m with his upside unless he really likes TOR and is bought into everything they're selling there.

Maybe im a little biased being a Sabres fan, but does anyone else think that Matthews will command more than 11.5 next year? He has to get at least 12 like McDavid, maybe more with the cap going up?

No I just messed up lol but I’ll fix it.