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Marner and Matthews lost to offer sheet

Created by: palhal
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 10, 2019
Published: Jan. 10, 2019
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Now I certainly don't expect both players to leave the Leafs. First there are few teams that have the cap for even one player that Matthews and Marner might want to play for long term. But let's imagine the money so good, they can't refuse is it really that bad for the Leafs? Leafs have probably allotted 21m to spend on M and M can be used to spend on other players. I gave the example of Duschene and Jensen plus the signing their own RFAs to long term teams. So if a team loses a player(s) to an offer sheet, look at as a trade. In this case Matthews, Marner for Duschene/Jensen and 8 first rounders plus additional cap to sign other players. Yep it probably hurts the Leafs short term, but not as much as many predict.
Or another scenario if available....lose Matthews and Matthews to any offer sheet, sign Point to a 12m deal, don't sign Duchene.
So the "trade" Matthews and Marner for Point/Jensen, signing of some of the RFAs long term and 4 first rounders.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$2,750,000
4$4,850,000
3$2,750,000
2$950,000
3$1,400,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$1,400,000
7$9,000,000
3$3,000,000
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$83,000,000$74,125,699$0$0$8,874,301
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
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$4,850,000$4,850,000
RW
UFA - 3
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$9,000,000$9,000,000
RW, C
UFA - 7
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$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,400,000$1,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
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$1,400,000$1,400,000
LW, C
UFA - 2
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$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
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$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
RD
UFA
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
UFA - 4
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$950,000$950,000
G
UFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Jan. 10, 2019 at 11:43 p.m.
#1
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Notwithstanding the fact it's unlikely both sign offer sheets...but for fun...if it were to happen...I'd be surprised if the Leafs didn't match at least one of them.

If they both sign $15m offer sheets...I'd like to think they'd match 1 and pass on the other as opposed to letting both leave and taking the 8 first rounders.
Jan. 10, 2019 at 11:43 p.m.
#2
BootBoi
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Awesome attitude 2ward likely, at least one, possibilities. .
Roster still looks good without them..
Signing Duc a good consolation.
Well done..-~
Jan. 10, 2019 at 11:45 p.m.
#3
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LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: BootBoi
Awesome attitude 2ward likely, at least one, possibilities. .
Roster still looks good without them..
Signing Duc a good consolation.
Well done..-~


Thanks. Believe or not I try to be a realist.
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Jan. 11, 2019 at 4:46 a.m.
#4
Formerly Jamiepo
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Yup not horrible, my personal choice would be to leave out Jensen, trade brown sign Ozzy and kappy to a 1 year deal and add Karlsson. Certainly with the money left by not signing mathews and marner we could afford Karlsson and duchene.

I don’t worry too much about offer sheets but 12 first round picks over the next 4 years is a pretty fun prospect.
Jan. 11, 2019 at 6:45 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: Jamiepo
Yup not horrible, my personal choice would be to leave out Jensen, trade brown sign Ozzy and kappy to a 1 year deal and add Karlsson. Certainly with the money left by not signing mathews and marner we could afford Karlsson and duchene.

I don’t worry too much about offer sheets but 12 first round picks over the next 4 years is a pretty fun prospect.


If teams are go "offer crazy". that why I signed Kapanen to longer deal. Also Ozzy is UFA after next season. You're right the other option would be having 12m Karlsson . So by not signing Matthews and Marner and signing UFA Karlsson, the off season "trade" is Matthews and Marner for Karlsson and eight first rounders.. Think the Leafs wool take that.
Jan. 11, 2019 at 1:33 p.m.
#6
Red Wing Nut
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Not to be party pooper..but coming from following a team that had a 25 year playoff ..now suffering rebuilding... IF teams offer sheet Matthews/Marner..Honestly for the price of 13M/10M per ...obviously u think leafs match & deal with cap after..BUT hypothetically sheets come for those $$ or more...wouldn't 8 ...yes 8 FIRST RD PICKS for losing them be a pause for a massive future MANY playoff runs... Aka the lindross trade that netted avalanche multi cups (forsberg & parts used to acquire Roy) ..you still have JT nylander, kapanen Reilly Andersen etc...8 first rounders would make me think twice about matching & the cap space... K leaf lifers ..thoughts??
Jan. 11, 2019 at 1:40 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Mike
Not to be party pooper..but coming from following a team that had a 25 year playoff ..now suffering rebuilding... IF teams offer sheet Matthews/Marner..Honestly for the price of 13M/10M per ...obviously u think leafs match & deal with cap after..BUT hypothetically sheets come for those $$ or more...wouldn't 8 ...yes 8 FIRST RD PICKS for losing them be a pause for a massive future MANY playoff runs... Aka the lindross trade that netted avalanche multi cups (forsberg & parts used to acquire Roy) ..you still have JT nylander, kapanen Reilly Andersen etc...8 first rounders would make me think twice about matching & the cap space... K leaf lifers ..thoughts??


Anyone familiar with the saying 'one in the hand is worth two in the bush'? Meaning, it's more valuable to know you have one of something than to lose it for the chance to get two.

You have Matthews and Marner in hand. 1st round draft picks are 'in the bush'.

Are two in the hand worth 8 in the bush?
Jan. 11, 2019 at 1:48 p.m.
#8
Red Wing Nut
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So I assume you'd keep Lindross & have no cups that the Avs won..k..cool..Lol.. Just food for thought
Jan. 11, 2019 at 2:18 p.m.
#9
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Edited Jan. 11, 2019 at 3:12 p.m.
Quoting: Mike
So I assume you'd keep Lindross & have no cups that the Avs won..k..cool..Lol.. Just food for thought


Assume all you want. Lindros wasn't lost to an offer sheet. He was traded in the package of Hextall, Duchesne, Ricci, Kerry Huffman, Peter Forsberg, a first-round pick in the 1993 NHL Entry Draft (Thibault), $15 million, and future considerations (Chris Simon). So..k...cool....you skipped a few steps in the trade that eventually turned the Avalanche into a stanley cup winner....due in no small part to the Canadiens messing around with Patrick Roy and him forcing a trade to Colorado.

But great that you chose one, very specific, trade of a 1st overall pick who demanded to be traded...and was in exchange for the 6th overall pick and other parts to use as the example of why Toronto should walk away from Matthews and Marner and take 8 1st round picks.

How about Scott Stevens signing an offer sheet in St. Louis and giving 5 picks to the Captials. They used those picks on Trevor Halverson, Sergei Gonchar, Brendan Witt, Nolan Baumgartner and Miika Elomo). Who had a bigger impact?

What did the Ducks do with the compensation they got from Edmonton for Penner? They also made a bunch of trades that largely resulted in nothing.

See...it's easy to use 20-20 hindsight to find an example or two to help support your idea.
Jan. 11, 2019 at 4:33 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Mike
Not to be party pooper..but coming from following a team that had a 25 year playoff ..now suffering rebuilding... IF teams offer sheet Matthews/Marner..Honestly for the price of 13M/10M per ...obviously u think leafs match & deal with cap after..BUT hypothetically sheets come for those $$ or more...wouldn't 8 ...yes 8 FIRST RD PICKS for losing them be a pause for a massive future MANY playoff runs... Aka the lindross trade that netted avalanche multi cups (forsberg & parts used to acquire Roy) ..you still have JT nylander, kapanen Reilly Andersen etc...8 first rounders would make me think twice about matching & the cap space... K leaf lifers ..thoughts??


Remember teams can offer the most money, but it doesn't mean the players have to sign those offer sheets. They would go to the Leafs with the Leafs with the offer s. Leafs do have a tipping point of what they will pay and also the players MIGHT have "difference in pay" where it might be pay to stay with the Leafs and not go for a few dollars more.
Personally I think the Leafs top offer might be 9.5m. for Marner. Why should he get more than Kucherov who starts his 9.5m next year on his third contract? Marner probably sees the financial benefits and the benefits being a hometown Leaf star which would last a life time instead of being just another star player with another team. So I definitely think he would sign for less as a Leaf. How much less is the question.
Matthews is probably an "easier" defection from the Leafs. But I really don't see why, he should get more than McDavid money. Gee the next highest player in the league is 11m Doughty next year. Again my opinion, I think Matthews wants to stays in a big name city with a good team,,,which limits the number of teams which can even overpay for Matthews. He might be move from Leafs as soon as possible for big market US but right now make having star power with a very good team might be his best financial option in the long term.
Teams who may want to overpay for a young star and lose four first round picks, how to do they build a competitive team around that new star in a cap league? If the team is going to non competitive it kinda defeats the purpose of the new team to make an offer sheet, and if the team is going to be non competitive it makes the player not wanting to sign with that team even for a few dollars more.
Jan. 11, 2019 at 5:39 p.m.
#11
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Yes I'm aware lindross was a trade not offer sheet...geez I'm comparing compensation only ...if I mention Hershel walker...you gonna tell me hockey isn't football....really ..no. I didn't know that..haha..omg some of you need some "downers" to get over yourselves... I'm only asking a simple question if leaf fans would actually let the talents walk for that amount of top notch compensation pkgs....I'm almost done with this site ..until they create a block or mute buttons for some of you ppl ..so annoying
Jan. 11, 2019 at 5:46 p.m.
#12
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Palhal...that was not for you BTW... I usually may not like ur takes..but they make sense & are thought out respectful.. I agree with you generally on ur post here...but 8 first rounders I'd have to think about it.. For a few at least..especially if I have faith in my front office/scouting staff.. Rock on..look forward to seeing what happens by deadline time
Jan. 11, 2019 at 11:44 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: Mike
Palhal...that was not for you BTW... I usually may not like ur takes..but they make sense & are thought out respectful.. I agree with you generally on ur post here...but 8 first rounders I'd have to think about it.. For a few at least..especially if I have faith in my front office/scouting staff.. Rock on..look forward to seeing what happens by deadline time


As much as we look forward to TDL. Now July 1st with UFA and even RFAs will be in play . LeafLand was going nuts with one "holdout" last fall, and still a very good team. What will be the insanity if Marner and/Marner aren't signed by October 1st. Seems sometimes the play on the ice is secondary.
Jan. 12, 2019 at 12:40 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: Mike
Palhal...that was not for you BTW... I usually may not like ur takes..but they make sense & are thought out respectful.. I agree with you generally on ur post here...but 8 first rounders I'd have to think about it.. For a few at least..especially if I have faith in my front office/scouting staff.. Rock on..look forward to seeing what happens by deadline time


Hey Mike. Perhaps my original response to you was not received in the way it was intended.

My ‘one in the hand vs two in the bush’ post wasn’t intended as proof that M&M at high cap hits are worth more than the 8 first rounders.

I, too, was posing the same question, but trying to frame it in a way that calls into question how valuable individual first round round picks might be.

When your response was ‘i assume you prefer no cups’ I responded in an equally nasty tone and...voila. Here we are.

Anyone who’s familiar with me on here knows i value opinions and dialogue and have a tendency to call people out when they start preaching opinions as fact.

Anyway. Hopefully we get off on a better foot in another thread
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