Next Year with Muz

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: brenfox31

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 30, 2019

Published: Jan. 30, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

NOTE: This assumes all (or most) of the Leafs bonuses were paid and those are not a concern. Any comments/arguments based on those will be ignored because I'm tired of the people who say every Leafs ACGM is wrong and not possible. Whether or not it is realistic for the bonuses to get paid is an argument for another time.

I believe that this lineup is very similar to the beginning of this year (with Nylander signed).

In terms of defence: Dermott and Zaitzev may actually be better than Gardiner and Zaitsev were, as Zaitsev has played way better so far without Gards, and I think this role allows us to use him in the right way. The top line defence is obviously much better with Muzzin instead of Hainsey, and I believe that Rosen will be ready for a full-time role. He has been amazing in the AHL and I think he and Ozh will be very similar to Dermott and Oz. Oz will have improved, and tho this is not a strong pairing, I think it is effective (as well as very cheap). Holl, Borgman, Sandin, and Lilly also become injury and depth options, which means I am not too worried if either Oz or Rosen struggles.

The forwards: The first three lines are effectively the same, except now everyone is inked up relative;y long term, and they will have improved even more. There's nothing wrong with this lineup, we know how deadly they are. The 4th line sees Moore take Browns Spot, which I have no problem with. He has been very good and will easily be a top 9 player to replace Marleau after this season. Bracco has excelled in the AHL and replaces Ennis, tho Ennis could be re-signed for cheap. I simply believe Bracco needs a chance. Gauthier provides an excellent 13th forward option because Lindholm and Moore are very versatile in terms of what position they play.

If these contracts work and we can manage to use Brown to get a significant pick, we WILL be a contender. Should the defence improve? yes. Do we need to waste cap and sign someone? No. We have Lilly and Sandin as high-level prospects coming up, and with the long term contracts we have we can afford to wait one year if the defence struggles - I don't believe they will.

With marleau done after this year, we will have enough money to sign Muzzin and even another decent Dman. The danger year is this year, and I believe the Muzzin deal helps a lot with replacing Gardiner (who we cannot afford). It sucks to get nothing for him, but it's the sad reality IMO.

yes we are 500k over, but some small tinkering would fix that and I'm not in the mood to do it ATM.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST	YEARS	CAP HIT
Dzierkals, Martins	3	$800,000
Gordeev, Fedor	3	$800,000
McGregor, Ryan	3	$800,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell	7	$9,250,000
Matthews, Auston	6	$11,000,000
Kapanen, Kasperi	3	$3,000,000
Johnsson, Andreas	3	$2,000,000
Borgman, Andreas	2	$925,000
Carcone, Michael	2	$825,000
Gagné, Gabriel	2	$825,000
Sparks, Garret	2	$900,000
Subban, Jordan	1	$700,000
Ozhiganov, Igor	2	$900,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Lindholm, Pär		2	$1,250,000
Mueller, Chris		1	$800,000

Trades

TOR

2019 2nd round pick (CAR)
2019 5th round pick (CAR)

Additional Details:

Any team, but we need to get a pick back after losing 3 futures for Muzzin

CAR

Brown, Connor
2020 7th round pick (SJS)

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2019
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,000,000	$77,993,199	$0	$82,500	$5,006,801

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,000,000$11,000,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Johnsson, Andreas $2,000,000$2,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $9,250,000$9,250,000 RW UFA - 6
Marleau, Patrick $700,000$700,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,000,000$3,000,000 RW UFA - 3
Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Lindholm, Pär $1,250,000$1,250,000 LW, C UFA - 2
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Bracco, Jeremy $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 5
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Ozhiganov, Igor $900,000$900,000 RD UFA	Sparks, Garret $900,000$900,000 G UFA - 1
Rosén, Calle $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 2	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Jan. 30, 2019 at 2:25 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,673

Likes: 25,507

Five stars, although I'd rather keep Brown, trade Nylander and save $5M and get a better pick. But that's probably my personal bias against hold-outs. Plus it gives Kapanen, Johnsson and Ozhiganov more money.

brenfox31 and palhal liked this.

Jan. 30, 2019 at 2:27 p.m.

brenfox31

Thread Starter

Brendan Fox

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 511

Likes: 135

Quoting: OldNYIfan

See your point, but Moore can't replace Nylander (even if he is struggling), he can replace Brown IMO.

Oz, Kappy and Sparks probably should get more money, but this is the only way to fit them. Possibly using a 1x1.5M deal on Johnsson could fix that. Like I said, lots of tinkering options, I'm not worried.

Jan. 30, 2019 at 2:34 p.m.

Fignn

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 808

Likes: 125

5 stars for the explanation and the values. I personally not a fan of Kap I think he should be in Johsson ball park IMO.

brenfox31 liked this.

Jan. 30, 2019 at 3:24 p.m.

TML1991

Joined: Feb. 2016

Posts: 685

Likes: 153

Quoting: Fignn

5 stars for the explanation and the values. I personally not a fan of Kap I think he should be in Johsson ball park IMO.

Assuming Kap stays on his current pace, which he has slowed down a bit from, he will end up with something like 60 points in 137 GP for his career. Not bad, but a pretty short track record.

He comps pretty well to someone like Anthony Mantha (3.3 mil at 4.15% of the cap, Elias Lindholm (2.7 mil at 3.78%) and Ondrej Kase (2.6 mil at 3.27%) when they signed their respective deals

Expect him to land somewhere between those 3 players. Mantha had more games and better performance so he's probably at the high end, Lindholm had just come off a 39 point season, and kase had just come off the equivalent of a 47 point season, but kase also didnt have the pedigree kap does. Somewhere between 2.7 and 3.5ish, seems reasonable, so I'd ball park something like 3.25 on a 2 year.

link for other comps https://www.capfriendly.com/comparables/elias-lindholm-5343

Jan. 30, 2019 at 4:30 p.m.

Fignn

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 808

Likes: 125

Quoting: TML1991

That’s the problem the numbers don’t tell you that he’s been playing with Mathews and Marner and Tavares easy to ride coat tails

Jan. 31, 2019 at 10:58 a.m.

TML1991

Joined: Feb. 2016

Posts: 685

Likes: 153

Quoting: Fignn

That’s the problem the numbers don’t tell you that he’s been playing with Mathews and Marner and Tavares easy to ride coat tails

in the season prior to each of those players signing their new contracts

Lindholdm was paired with the staal brothers, or rask/skinner.
Mantha was usually paired with Larkin and sometimes Zetterberg/Nyquist
Kase played a lot with some combo of Henrique/Getzlaf/Rakell/Vermette

so it's not like those players were playing with trash. Still some really good players in there, not on the same level as AM/MM/JT but Eric Staal was a very good player at the time, and so was skinner. Larkin had a pretty good season last year (63 points), and is off to another good start this year.

So yes those are pretty good comps when you consider age, and especially when mantha had 87 points in 150 GP and kap is projected for 160 in 137 GP (similar to lindholm and kase). So something around lindholm/kase's cap hit % seems reasonable.

Also Andreas Johnsson is about 2 years older than kap. Age matters.

Fignn liked this.

Jan. 31, 2019 at 12:08 p.m.

Fignn

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 808

Likes: 125

Quoting: TML1991

age doesn't matter its talent and I think they have the same talent. He struggling because Mathews is struggling. He will get it im not saying he won't. The league is going to pay young people because its the cool thing to do now and the GM's don't want to look like idiots just in case they turn into a superstar and you were the one to let him go. With Marleau done he can be his replacement.

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