Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 28, 2019

Published: Mar. 1, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Using hockey-reference's play index season finder, I looked for players who were exiting their ELCs with bodies of work and (sorta) pedigrees that were similar to the Leafs 3 remaining RFA forwards. I then looked at CapFriendly's contract histories, with particular attention paid to the % cap hit those second contracts took.

That produced the following:

Johnsson is comparable to Arvidsson (as Stephen Burtch has noted), as well as Conor Sheary and Tyler Johnson. The latter two signed for ~$3m x 3, which today would be $3.3-4m x 3. Johnsson's body of work isn't as extensive, so perhaps a 2 year bridge at nearer their number (i.e. no inflation with cap)

Kapanen comparables are mid/late first rounders or second rounder wingers who broke out in the last year of their ELCs. They and their 2nd contracts are:
Kevin Fiala -- still on ELC
Anthony Mantha's 2nd contract is $3.3m (4.15%) x 2 years
Versteeg's was $3.083m (5.43%) x 3 years
Reilly Smith's is $5m (6.85%) x 5 years
Brandon Saad's was $6m (8.22%) x 6 years
Here, we've got a pretty ready-made bridge deal that'd be about equivalent: Anthony Mantha's bridge.

Finally, Marner... His 3 ELC seasons at a pretty break-neck scoring rate (.92 ppg) from the wing makes him comparable to Patrick Kane (.94), Gaudreau (.89), Hall (.85). Hall's second contract was $6m (10%) x 7 years. Gaudreau's 2nd contract was $6.75m (9.25% cap) x 6 years. Kane's was $6.3m (11.1%) x 5 years. At the top end of the talent pyramid (see Matthews), cap Hit % seems to be trending to reflect ability and is increasingly unrelated to term. Gonna guess 11% of cap for 5 years is in line with current trends but still rooted in historical precedents.

BOTTOM LINE
These 3 contracts put the Leafs nearly $4m over the cap. To make it work they'd have to trade and replace (with League minimums) Brown and Zaitsev. There can be no upgrades at defense.