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Forums/Armchair-GM

Being Real

Created by: dzad96
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: May 30, 2019
Published: May 30, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Before you rip the trades, please read this.

If Marner wants more than 10.5, which personally I see as unlikely, but possible... He's gotta go. Simply can not afford to pay another guy 10.5+. It sucks but it's reality. So if it comes to it, what would a realistic Marner trade look like?

Here's how I see this going, any offersheet under 10.6 per year would be matched by the Leafs, and any offersheet over that number would not be matched and the Leafs would take the 4 1st's as compensation instead. So assuming this, Any trade for Marner would have to bring back a return similar to 4 1st round picks to make sense...

Side note: I can't see any team realistically offering Marner anything over the 10.6 threshold and foregoing their next 4 years of first round picks. I think every offersheet made to Marner is for 3-5 years at 10.5 Mil. Which the Leafs would match. I say 3-5 years because if you go to 6 at 10+ it results in compensation being 4 1st rounders (see the sites awesome offersheet calculator)

And I don't see it coming to this, I think Marner will remain a Leaf with a cap hit in the 9.5-10.5 range. But never the less, here are some possible trade scenarios. Let me know what you think from the other teams perspectives. (Also assuming Marners cap hit is 11 in any trade scenario based on explanations above).
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$11,000,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell
5$11,000,000
Marner, Mitchell
5$11,000,000
Marner, Mitchell
5$11,000,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Werenski, Zachary [RFA Rights]
Additional Details:
Can't see Columbus wanting to trade Werenski under any circumstances, but Marner is a heck of a player and they are losing Panarin, so you never know.
CBJ
  1. Marner, Mitchell
2.
TOR
  1. Ekblad, Aaron
  2. Malgin, Denis [RFA Rights]
  3. Vatrano, Frank
Additional Details:
Florida has the cap space for it.
FLA
  1. Marner, Mitchell
3.
TOR
  1. Barrie, Tyson
  2. Makar, Cale
  3. 2019 1st round pick (COL)
Additional Details:
I know it seems like a lot, but Tyson Barrie only has one year left on his deal and would likely walk as a UFA in a year.
4.
TOR
  1. Hughes, Quinn
  2. Juolevi, Olli
  3. Virtanen, Jake
  4. 2019 2nd round pick (VAN)
Additional Details:
Hughes is the sure piece coming back, Juolevi and Virtanen are both somewhat unknowns. High draft picks who haven't developed yet, albeit both young and lots of time. Might make sense to take out Juolevi and add a first rd pick instead if Vancouver is still high on him.
VAN
  1. Marner, Mitchell
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
Logo of the COL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the STL
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the DAL
2020
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
25$83,000,000$85,353,865$0$4,800,000-$2,353,865
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,634,000$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$2,533,333$2,533,333
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$880,833$880,833 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RD
UFA - 6
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$916,667$916,667 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$1,450,000$1M)
LD
UFA - 2

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May 30, 2019 at 11:49 a.m.
#1
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Yikes. None of those teams say yes
May 30, 2019 at 11:50 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: aspina25
Yikes. None of those teams say yes


fair opinion. But what would a trade look like then?
May 30, 2019 at 11:51 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: dzad96
fair opinion. But what would a trade look like then?


just take 4 x 1st and build the D with picks : https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1190277
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May 30, 2019 at 12:01 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Laudan
just take 4 x 1st and build the D with picks : https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1190277


No, you try and trade him. With Matthews and Tavares and the rest of the core you are in win now mode. If you draft D with those 4 picks it could be years until they are good enough to contribute
May 30, 2019 at 12:06 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: nchest
No, you try and trade him. With Matthews and Tavares and the rest of the core you are in win now mode. If you draft D with those 4 picks it could be years until they are good enough to contribute


You didnt bother to click the link, didnt you.....
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May 30, 2019 at 12:45 p.m.
#6
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Vancouver and Colorado absolutely cry laughing at those offers, other 2 teams just say no
May 30, 2019 at 12:57 p.m.
#7
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I think you're spot on with your reasoning. Specifically this, "If Marner wants more than 10.5, which personally I see as unlikely, but possible... He's gotta go. Simply can not afford to pay another guy 10.5+. It sucks but it's reality." It does suck, but its something the leafs might need to deal with.

If it comes to that I think it'll be interesting to see how other teams value Marner. Yeah, he is an incredibly dynamic and entertaining player to watch. But is he 10M + worth of impact on the ice in a cap world? Keep in mind that he scored 19, 22 and 26 goals in his three years in the league. Of course, he's put up a bunch of assists, but he did that this year with JT as his center.

If Marner gets traded I think alot of us leaf fans might be surprised with what we get back. Is the Marner = 12M narrative and the risk of teams giving 4 1st just to sign him to 10.5M + reflective of his true value to a hockey club? Or is that just the narrative that the media is spinning. I think it will be interesting to see how that plays out if it comes to a trade..
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May 30, 2019 at 2:00 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Laudan
You didnt bother to click the link, didnt you.....


Manson or Pesce aren't being moved for just 1st round picks. Manson is the Ducks only pick so isn't going anywhere. Pesce is moved for scoring help not picks. So yea, I didn't click on your post, but it still doesn't work.
May 30, 2019 at 2:04 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: nchest
Manson or Pesce aren't being moved for just 1st round picks. Manson is the Ducks only pick so isn't going anywhere. Pesce is moved for scoring help not picks. So yea, I didn't click on your post, but it still doesn't work.


Still seems like you dont get it even with looking into it, but i wont really bother to explain the ANA trade to you... same for Pesce and having 3 x 1st rounders in 2020, where TvR can be third Pair cause the depth they have in RHD....oh damn...i went into explaining....
May 30, 2019 at 4:38 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: Jiannuccilli
Vancouver and Colorado absolutely cry laughing at those offers, other 2 teams just say no


It's not that I'm even saying those trades are necessarily fair, it's just based on the explanation I provided (which I doubt you read) the only way that Marner is not a Leaf next season is if someone offersheets him more than 10.5 per season. And IF Marner were actually to hold out for that much money THEN for any trade to make sense FROM THE LEAFS PERSPECTIVE it would have to be similar, or better than 4 first round draft picks. So in these trade scenarios swap Marner for 4 firsts, then tell me what you think. You're looking at it wrong.
May 30, 2019 at 8:03 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: dzad96
It's not that I'm even saying those trades are necessarily fair, it's just based on the explanation I provided (which I doubt you read) the only way that Marner is not a Leaf next season is if someone offersheets him more than 10.5 per season. And IF Marner were actually to hold out for that much money THEN for any trade to make sense FROM THE LEAFS PERSPECTIVE it would have to be similar, or better than 4 first round draft picks. So in these trade scenarios swap Marner for 4 firsts, then tell me what you think. You're looking at it wrong.


If that’s the case then why would you only take back werenski from Columbus? He’s not even the best defenseman on his own pairing
 
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