Forums/Armchair-GM

Building a Cup Winner Part 1

Created by: CD282
Initial Creation Date: May 30, 2019
Published: May 31, 2019 at 4:44 pm
Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers
Team Explanation
Small moves with a focus on making the playoffs in 2019-20. Cup Contender status happens the next year. Although if you can get in anything can happen, as St. Louis has proved.


WASHINGTON:
the trade proposal seen in the link following is similar - my pick is likely a higher one but you have to wait a year for it. https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1185206

In my opinion Burakovsky isn't worth the $3.25M required to retain his rights, so the pick is conditional on him signing. I think it's unlikely any team would trade an unconditional pick when the player becomes a UFA July 1st, nobody wants to be left holding the bag on this one. Fortunately for Washington, McDavid convinces Bura to sign so they can play together again.


CHICAGO:
two summers ago Carolina paid a 2nd round pick for Trevor van Riemsdyk, who was nearly 26 at the time and coming off a 16 point season. Benning just turned 25 this week (he played as a 24-year-old this season, so 1 full year younger than TVR was at the time of the trade) and is coming off a 17 point season. Career stats when traded:

van Riemsdyk: 158, 8-23-31 +12 (0.19 p/gp)
Benning: 205, 14-39-53 +24 (0.26 p/gp)

Both played 3RD and generally win those minutes: Benning has a 54.4 GF% while TVR had a 53.4 GF%, although it's worth noting that TVR played on a better team: Chicago was the 5th best team over that span while Edmonton has been 22nd best during Benning's tenure. For perspective, TVR's GF% was +1.03 relative to his team while Benning's is +5.42. Takeaway: while the two players essentially play the same position, Benning is better at it and is younger - therefore has slightly higher upside. Carolina traded the #62 pick for TVR and Chicago's 2nd round pick is #43, thus making up the difference between the players.


TORONTO:
the Chicago 2nd gets flipped to Toronto along with prospect Micheal McLeod for the rights to Kapanen and Brown. From what I can tell Toronto fans expect a late 1st / early 2nd for Kapanen, while Brown is worth a 4th round pick to me. Therefore I'm offering a mid-2nd (#43 overall) and a prospect who was picked in the 2nd round, #40 overall in 2018. McLeod is a speedy center from Mississauga, ON who played for Mississauga and Saginaw of the OHL this year. He joined the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL for a few of their 2nd round playoff games this spring after Saginaw was eliminated from the OHL playoffs after a 7-game 2nd round series with the OHL champions, the Guelph Storm. He played well in the AHL playoffs despite a step up in competition and unfamiliar teammates, with 3 points and a +2 rating in 5 games. He showed VERY well in the last Oilers camp, nearly making the team in his draft +1 year. In short, 40 + 42 should be similar value to the 28 + 100 that I think these two players are worth. Toronto gets cap relief of nearly $5M and full value back in the pick and prospect.


2019 ENTRY DRAFT:
draft picks are based on this list: https://dobberprospects.com/cam-robinsons-2019-nhl-draft-rankings-april-2019/

#8: Dylan Cozens
#38: Yegor Afanasyev
#85: Jamieson Rees


RESULTS:
despite no Lucic trade, no cap dumps, no buyouts and only 1 UFA signing (backup goalie), I feel like this roster is improved with speed and skill with a minimal negative effect on the pick / prospect pool. McLeod is expendable because McDavid and Draisaitl hold center positions for many years to come, RNH has 2 years left and even Cozens will supersede him on the depth chart. Benning is a valuable part of the roster but theoretically replaceable with a prospect - my idea is to leave the #6 slot open and have a training camp battle between Persson, Lagesson, Jones and Bear to see which one grabs the spot. The other 3 will return to the AHL for the best development opportunity as I don't want any of these young players sitting in the pressbox. I've listed Persson below because he has the highest cap hit of the 4 and I wanted to work with the worst-case scenario.

This team has a pretty good shot at making the playoffs next year.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Hawkey, Hayden1$700,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Puljujärvi, Jesse2$1,400,000
Khaira, Jujhar2$1,150,000
Starrett, Shane2$800,000
Kapanen, Kasperi3$2,700,000
Burakovsky, André3$2,600,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Elliott, Brian1$2,500,000
Trades
EDM
  1. Burakovsky, André [RFA Rights]
WSH
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (EDM)
Conditional on signing
EDM
  1. 2019 2nd round pick (CHI)
CHI
  1. Benning, Matthew
EDM
  1. Kapanen, Kasperi [RFA Rights]
  2. Brown, Connor
TOR
  1. McLeod, Ryan
  2. 2019 2nd round pick (CHI)
Buyouts
  • Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
  • Eric Gryba: $300,000
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Milan Lucic: $750,000 (13%)
  • Sam Gagner: $315,000 (10%)
Buried
  • Kyle Brodziak: $75,000 ($1,150,000)
  • Brandon Manning: $1,175,000 ($2,250,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2019
EDM
EDM
NYI
EDM
EDM
EDM
2020
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
2021
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
24$83,000,000$84,325,332$0$532,500-$1,325,332
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Burakovsky, André
$2,600,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
EDM
McDavid, Connor
$12,500,000
C
UFA - 7
EDM
Puljujärvi, Jesse
$1,400,000
RW
RFA
EDM
Benson, Tyler
$808,333
LW
RFA - 2
EDM
Draisaitl, Leon
$8,500,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 6
Kapanen, Kasperi
$2,700,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Brown, Connor
$2,100,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
EDM
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
$6,000,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
EDM
Gagner, Sam
$2,835,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
EDM
Lucic, Milan
$5,250,000
LW
NMC
UFA - 4
EDM
Khaira, Jujhar
$1,150,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
EDM
Kassian, Zack
$1,950,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
EDM
Klefbom, Oscar
$4,167,000
LD
UFA - 4
EDM
Larsson, Adam
$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 2
EDM
Koskinen, Mikko
$4,500,000
G
NTC
UFA - 3
EDM
Sekera, Andrej
$5,500,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
EDM
Nurse, Darnell
$3,200,000
LD
UFA - 1
Elliott, Brian
$2,500,000
G
UFA - 1
EDM
Sekera, Andrej
$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 1
EDM
Persson, Joel
$1,000,000
RD
RFA - 1
EDM
Russell, Kris
$4,000,000
RD
NMC NTC
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
EDM
Gambardella, Joseph
$700,000
LW
UFA - 2
EDM
Cave, Colby
$675,000
C
RFA - 1
EDM
Lowe, Keegan
$675,000
LD
UFA - 1

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May 31, 2019 at 4:46
#1
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 8,728
Likes: 2,186
May 31, 2019 at 5:40
#2
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,697
Likes: 527

What's with the Toronto trade?


Brown = 20 goal rookie in 2016-17 (and a penalty killer)
Kappy = 20 goal rookie in 2018-19 (and a penalty killer)

You think your gonna get them BOTH for two 2nd round picks .... ???

LMAO


Benning for Brown straight up is fair ... but you gotta add a 1st + 2nd for Kapanen ...
May 31, 2019 at 8:54
#3
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 94
Likes: 47
Only delusional Leafs fans think Connor Brown is worth a 2nd round pick. And Kapanen's numbers were boosted The Matthews Effect, he might be worth a late first / early 2nd by himself. 8th + 38th? Not a chance.

Here's some light reading for our deluded Toronto friends:

https://theathletic.com/994402/2019/05/25/tulloch-projecting-the-next-contracts-for-andreas-johnsson-and-kasperi-kapanen/
CD282 liked this.
Jun 3, 2019 at 8:50
#4
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 8,728
Likes: 2,186
Quoting: drewjenks

What's with the Toronto trade?


Brown = 20 goal rookie in 2016-17 (and a penalty killer)
Kappy = 20 goal rookie in 2018-19 (and a penalty killer)

You think your gonna get them BOTH for two 2nd round picks .... ???

LMAO


Benning for Brown straight up is fair ... but you gotta add a 1st + 2nd for Kapanen ...


Please show your work, I showed mine above. My take:

Benning is worth a 2nd

Brown is worth a 4th
Kapanen is worth a late 1st (although I have seen Leafs fans on here trading him for a 2nd)

You clearly think I'm wrong, but have nothing substantial to back up your claim.
Jun 3, 2019 at 4:51
#5
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 8,728
Likes: 2,186
Quoting: drewjenks

What's with the Toronto trade?


Brown = 20 goal rookie in 2016-17 (and a penalty killer)
Kappy = 20 goal rookie in 2018-19 (and a penalty killer)

You think your gonna get them BOTH for two 2nd round picks .... ???

LMAO


Benning for Brown straight up is fair ... but you gotta add a 1st + 2nd for Kapanen ...


Kapanen: https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/231301

38 + 110 is the ask here.

Brown: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1199038
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1200435
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1198186

85 or 100 is a common ask. I'd offer 100 because the Leafs are in a tight spot and Brown isn't on a great contract.

I'd also argue that 38 + 100 + 110 is roughly equal to 40 + 42... I suggested in the Team Explanation that Kapanen + Brown are worth 28 + 100 and some Leafs fans seem to agree.
Jun 3, 2019 at 4:56
#6
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 8,728
Likes: 2,186
Quoting: TraderJoes
Only delusional Leafs fans think Connor Brown is worth a 2nd round pick. And Kapanen's numbers were boosted The Matthews Effect, he might be worth a late first / early 2nd by himself. 8th + 38th? Not a chance.

Here's some light reading for our deluded Toronto friends:

https://theathletic.com/994402/2019/05/25/tulloch-projecting-the-next-contracts-for-andreas-johnsson-and-kasperi-kapanen/


Good link, thanks. And agreed about the Matthews effect, although I think Kap is a decent player. He certainly isn't driving that line.
TraderJoes liked this.
 
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