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Sep 12, 1995
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Forum: NHL SigningsThu at 2:30 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 11:23 pm
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>El_Yogi</b></div><div>Petry just keeps getting better. Wouldn’t be willing to give up much more than him and a 2nd for Ghost...
Your undervaluing of Zucker tells me you are one of these kids you are talking about, the ones thinking they know hockey just by looking at offensive stats</div></div>

<strong>It has nothing to do with stats me bruv.</strong>

Both of my evaluations have to do with age. More specifically ....

<strong>Drouin + Ghost:</strong>

- Have more potential to improve (given their age + the fact that their weaknesses could be solved mentally or through maturity)
- Have more years of prime performance left (even if they don't improve)
- Philly doesn't look like cup contender today (so why trade 7 years of a prime DEF for 2)
- Montreal doesn't look like cup contender today (so why trade 6 years of a prime FWD for 3)

<strong>Zucker + Petry:</strong>

- Both are smart players and good all around players (which is a good thing)
- But that also means that they can't get much better (you can't expect much physical improvement at their age)
- Both are nearing the expected age of decline (28-31 for forwards and 30-34 for defense)

If either Philly or Montreal looked like serious cup contenders next year .... than these trades would make sense.
But they don't ... so why sell your assets at a low point for short term success?
The teams receiving the older players need a bit more compensation to account for lost potential and a shortened period of utility.
Forum: NHL SigningsWed at 10:52 pm
Forum: Armchair-GMWed at 10:30 pm
Thread: work sucks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Dylan1995</b></div><div>Brown. Isnt. Worth. 38th. Overall. Pick try a 4th or Matt Benning 1 for 1</div></div>
<strong>35-40th</strong> overall picks = <strong>20%</strong> chance of becoming full time NHL players (approximate)
<strong>35-40th</strong> overall picks = <strong>4%</strong> chance of becoming a top 6 FWD / top 4 D (approximate)
<strong>35-40th</strong> overall picks = <strong>1%</strong> chance of becoming a top 3 FWD / top 2 D (approximate)

<strong>Connor Brown</strong> just turned 25 and has played 3 full NHL seasons:

- He plays <strong>13.7 minutes</strong> a night (in a defensive role)
- Which includes 2 minutes on the Penalty Kill (no PP time)
- Leaving him with <strong>11.7 minutes</strong> to score at Even Strength
- His most common line-mates are Gauthier and Marleau
- He played 1 season with Matthews (20 goals + 36 points)
- Matthews is a brutal play-maker compared to McDavid

Brown has the skill for a top 6 role but he's stuck behind Marner and Nylander (and used as a shut down guy).

He'd be Edmonton's most productive RW and if he played <strong>16-19 minutes</strong> on McDavid's line and got PP time ....

<strong>His 82 game stats would be in this range:</strong>

<strong>Goals </strong>= 25 - 35
<strong>Assists </strong>= 25 - 35
<strong>Points </strong>= 50 - 70

Your 38th overall pick has a 4% chance of eventually being that good .... and a 1% chance of eventually being better.

Do you expect <strong>Ryan McLeod </strong>(Edmonton's 40th pick in 2018) to get <strong>128 points</strong> in 68 OHL games next year?

<strong>Brown</strong> had 1.88 points per game that year (in his D+2 season)
<strong>McLeod</strong> had 0.92 points per game this year (in his D+1 season)

McLeod will have double (more than double) his point production next year to catch up with Browns development.