So the Leafs pass and I think you should look at shooting % regression (as well as over performance regression for goalies) if your goal is to do what worked last year

You better somehow get the real Sebastian Aho to get Taylor Hall. Josh Ho Sang??? Gotta give to get.

Need to give up Wahlstrom to have any chance at Hall

aint gonna do it for hall. not like they'll trade him anyway. but if in some alternate universe Hall is in this line up, it should be Hall, Barzal Eberle

yea I'll trust the 2x Jack Adams winning coach over the random Laughs fan who thinks he's an Analytics Master... the same "master" who thinks xGA models don't consider shot quantities, mind you

Lol.
The jack adams goes to the team who overperformed their play (often with a hot goalie) every year. It means very little.
I am sorry that you do not understand how analytics work or what they mean. I hope one day you can, but if you think your entire team is going to shoot way over their career averages for the rest of their tenure on the island, you are deluding yourself because It has never happened in the history of the league.
We have already had this conversation in general and I will not repeat myself. The islanders are bound to regress alot, and relying on them to not is a poor decision.

Literally the entire Islanders team was on a PDO bender the whole year, They're due to regress

Okay, this is not going to happen.

I get that Toronto has cap problems, but they're not saving that much in this deal taking Hickey. Tell me, how is this at all fair? Hickey+Wotherspoon for Kapanen??????

And no, that will never get you Taylor Hall.

Think about it. That's 2 decent prospects and a later 1st for A FORMER HART TROPHY WINNER. Hall WON THE HART last year, and they give him up for that?

yea heard that since November

5v5
Eberle: 2 points under his previous career avg
Lee: 1 point under his previous career avg
Leddy: .7 points under his career avg
Clutterbuck: 2.7 points under his career avg

I can go on it's too tiresome to sift the data every player. about half the team shot under the previous career avg and half the team shot over, their previous career avg, aka approximate net zero. again I say, anyone who thinks any of the logit reg X GA models don't account for shot quantity, doesn't know sh it. sorry hate to break it to you, you're confidence is misplaced.

Will some players see a regression in shot success? mostlikely, most notably Cizikas, I doubt he'll shoot 15 % again. but will players also shoot better next season? absolutely (Barzal) and they will add better at least one better shooter to the roster.

WSH
14/15: 1.005
15/16: 1.012
16/17: 1.029
17/18: 1.017
18/19: 1.022

maybe this is finally the year WSH will regress. bc PDO: 100% accurate all the time no questions ask. PDO is an effective, NEAR FUTURE predictive model. it is not useful on season to season prediction. there are too many uncontrolled variables that effect the inputs season to season: (Age, player changes, system changes, coaching changes, injuries retirements etc)

didnt seem to get lucky against the pens but what do I know