Quoting: Vorg_Vaarg
Last I checked Marleau is still a Cane. He should stay there.
zero chance he stays a cane. He has already publicly said that he only wants to play for the sharks next year. His home is SJ, he sold his toronto house but I believe still has his SJ house. It's always been the plan to retire in SJ. This was a simple 1st rounder in exchange for buyout cap space. pure and simple. I put the chances that he is a shark this season at 80%+.
As for the cap numbers, Dougie will not offer meier more than 2 yrs, 5M per. Could he get a 6x6M offer sheet? yes. maybe even 7x7. Possible. but I am not sure meier would sign it anyways for two reasons:
1. The sharks have invested alot in him and there is a sense of loyalty and happiness around the sharks culture. Any offer sheet team would be some team that might suck.
2. If he signs a 2 yr, 5M per bridge. Then plays the two years and puts up 70+ pts in each, as he very well might, then 6-7M would be waay too low. At that point, dougie would give him 5 years, 8M per. take the 2 yr, 10M + 5 yr, 40M and you get 7 years for 50M. That's actually more money than the 7x7 that he might get in an offer sheet. Not to mention playing in a great place with a great culture and a great chance to each year. Meier has seen that cooch got his money. Pavs got his money. After the bridge deal, Dougie tends to follow up with 5-8 year extensions at big money.
It makes all the sense in the world for Meier to take a bridge then cash in big at age 24 or 25.
Labanc is a higher risk situation, so it makes more sense for him to take a possible 1 year show me. If he wants 5+ years, he'll get no more than 4M or 4.5M per most likely in an offer sheet. I could not imagine an offer sheet coming at 6M+. If he were to sign a 5x4.5 offer, he gets 22.5M. but if he takes a 2 yr, 6M bridge, and rocks it (50+ pts, better defensively). He'll cash in well above 5M per for 5+ years.
Both guys are in a position to ash in much larger in the longer term.
They are also both very different from similar aged RFAS like Marner, rantanen, laine, connor, Werenski or the like because those guys have put up multiple huge seasons, and have multiple top line production years. Even Nylander had two 60+ pt seasons before holding out last year. Meier and labanc both have only one real season of top 6 performance (even labanc is iffy if he is that category right now). As such, they still need to prove themselves but can cash in majorly if they do. Bridge deals are, by nature, shorter and cheaper, than anything a UFA would get, so thats why meier wont be bridged at 6+, nor labanc much above 3.