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sjsharks82
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2019 at 9:53 p.m.
Thread: Roster to start the POs
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Mikker575</b></div><div>Even if you say it is for fun, it has lot of errors. Sharks mostly need top 6 RW, not another overpayed Dman and middle 6 forward (who is from division rival so it makes the trade impossible), therefore sending away 2 arguably best prospects makes no sense. And Seattle expansion would hurt this team - that brings interesting question, if SJS wants to protect everybody, can they make Burns RW and protect 7F - Couture, Burns, Hertl, Kane, Meier, Labanc, Toffoli, 3D - Vlasic, Karlsson, Trouba, 1G - Jones?</div></div>

definitely you are right about the seattle issue. I hadnt thought about it, but it's obviously a key condition. woops :-)

I thinkg they could use another top 4 Dman actually. Their top 3 have too much age and injury risks to have such a soft bottom 4. I would loveto add a more prime age Dman who can eat up 22-25 mins of good 2-way play. This way injuries dont sink them and they arent relying on very risky options for such a key spot.

That said, the expansion draft makes it impossible to pick up another top 4 Dman for the long term. Right you are...
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2019 at 3:40 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 9:01 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jangle29</b></div><div>Johnsson is a 4 year deal, if he leaves then so be it, Kapanen is a 3 year and Im almost positive hes still RFA then.
Marner can come in at 10-11 mil but it has to be over 8 years. On a 5 year deal if you use Pat Kane as his best comparable he should be 9 x 5 years. He has an ego though apparently and if he needs to go he can, the leafs are fine without him and the 4 1st round picks if a GM is insane enough</div></div>

Looking around the league, the low cap has really put most teams in a bind financially. Afrer resigning their own FAs, I have trouble seeing where the money is gunna come for offer sheets, let along big offers for the top UFAs. I know that FLA is chasing bob and bread, but Duchene is worht 8-9M somewhere. Dzingel should get 5. Pavelski gets 7. Nyquist 5-6M.... Add in the trades that need to happen to fit in the RFAs (like zeitsev and Kadri) and I am not seeing enough money sloshing around to made the dollar amounts equal the "worths". I think there will be a bit of salary deflation....

Its a really great year to be colorado. They are young, exciting, and have tons of space. Even after resigning rantanen, Kerfoot, and zadorov, they should have nearly 20M under the cap to go shopping. They could easily resign Wilson and then add Duchene, Nyqist, and maybe one for solid middle 6 forward. last year, they were a one-line team, but this summer they could sign a whole solid line. With the lower cap and all these other teams strapped, this is the colorado summer.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 8:15 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jangle29</b></div><div>If you think it annoys you just imagine how badly it annoys me as a leaf fan. I hear it 24/7 when even if it happened, there are 3 or more better RFAs out there to pick from, and no reason for someone to think its a leaf. First it was "there is no way Kapanen and Johnsson sign for less than 4 mil" Then they sign 3-4 year deals at just over 3 lol. Every leaf fan with a clue predicted those deals within a few 100k.
Then Marner, why the **** would someone offersheet a playmaking winger and not a 40+ goal scoring centre in Point, who TB actually cant/wont pay him 11+ mil?
The hockey media is a joke. All they have to do is use facts like you just did, base a deal on other deals the same GM and team signed in the past, and combine it with what the player is worth compared to others who signed at his age/success. 5 mil 2 years is not that bad. Like Marner, Meiers production is a bit inflated with who he plays with, and no player get credit for all that</div></div>

Marner will get alot, but it should not be 10+. he is not matthews or mcdavid. Besides if Dubas gives him an 5x10 type deal, similar to matthews (just a bit below), then two bad things happen:

1. Marner is a 28 year old UFA when it is done. Like the Johnsson comment above, Dubas looses all leverage by signing away all RFA years while requiring no UFA years and losing all leverage when the deal is done.
2. 10M on the cap means required trades (kadri and Brown to start, Zeitsev too), but still very limited fund to address a nonexistant D corps after Reilly and Muzzin.

I dunno if Dubas can get marner to also take a bridge (2yr x7M per type) but he's gotta try hard. Putting another 10+M salary with term means upwards of 40M locked into just 4 forwards for the next several years. That's a pretty impressive chunk of change that will make the team very vulnerably defensively, and make depth a big issue. Maybe Sandin is ready, Maybe Hollowell makes the leap. Not sure, but Dubas puts himself into a corner if he gives marner 10+.

Gunna be interesting...

And speaking of point, it is gunna be tricky for them. They were able to get rid of miller with a good return, but it's still pretty tight for the bolts. I forgot about him. Man there are a huge number of ridiculous RFA's. Meier, with his 30-30+ season is like way down on the list. Remarkable...
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 8:02 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jangle29</b></div><div>If you think it annoys you just imagine how badly it annoys me as a leaf fan. I hear it 24/7 when even if it happened, there are 3 or more better RFAs out there to pick from, and no reason for someone to think its a leaf. First it was "there is no way Kapanen and Johnsson sign for less than 4 mil" Then they sign 3-4 year deals at just over 3 lol. Every leaf fan with a clue predicted those deals within a few 100k.
Then Marner, why the **** would someone offersheet a playmaking winger and not a 40+ goal scoring centre in Point, who TB actually cant/wont pay him 11+ mil?
The hockey media is a joke. All they have to do is use facts like you just did, base a deal on other deals the same GM and team signed in the past, and combine it with what the player is worth compared to others who signed at his age/success. 5 mil 2 years is not that bad. Like Marner, Meiers production is a bit inflated with who he plays with, and no player get credit for all that</div></div>

Thank you for the vote of confidence...

I am actually surprised at the 3+ mil numbers for those guys. Has it be finalized? I was looking for the final numbers but havent found 'em. Giving johnsson 3 years is foolish as he'll be a 27 year old UFA then. Better to give two years and maintain leverage or make it 4-5 years and get a discount on a few UFA years. 2-3 for kapanen makes more sense. To be honest, I would think both should be in the 2 yr, 2M per range since both have had just one real NHL season. 3x3 is actually kinda steep for an RFA, with one NHL full NHL season, even if it was a 20-20 year. Playing on such an offensively stacked team might have been as much of a contributor to those numbers as the players themselves. Still, 3M per is reasonable.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 7:31 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jangle29</b></div><div>The thing is the fans and media will spin this "OH THE RFAS WILL WANT MORE THAN THAT" **** allnday but this is pretty close. Look at what kapanen and johnsson just signed for. They got less than people said over longer terms. Nobody if offersheeting Meier. Nobody</div></div>

Yep. The whole 'R' part of RFA is crucial. They are restricted. the teams hold all the leverage, so comparing with what a UFA would get is foolish. Offer sheeting comes with serious risks:

1. usually you have to overpay
2. You lose a ton of picks, and only teams that have not dealt picks can even make an offer sheet. Any team that has dealt a pick that would be required in an offer sheet is immediately excluded from offering one.
3. You become persona non grata in the GM universe. Its an act of war in many ways.

League-wide, the most recent offer sheet was ryan orielly in 2013. That basically tells you all you need to know about this...
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 6:28 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>goodfella</b></div><div>If you go based on the 4-4.5% Hertl and Couture got, your Meier deal is actually high. Labancs is a tad low, but he really ended up being a PP specialist/3rd liner. So maybe he takes a cut.

If Jumbo wants to stay, he has to take the minimum with the cap crunch. If Patty gets bought out, same with him.

Pavelski's deal is the only one I just don't know about. Other teams could offer much more term/aav. I don't pay any attention to the "far apart" stuff in the media. Classic negotiating.</div></div>

Everything is a ballpark guess of course. Meier be 2 x 4.5. Bancer might be 2x3.2 or whatever. together, I see them as under 8M total.

As for pavelski, I say he is resigned with a 2/3 probability. He wants to stay. The sharks want him to stay. The whole "far off" idea is BS. That said, if dougie holds firm on term, then pavs may get a deal elsewhere that he wont refuse. I hope dougie gives in on the term to keep the AAV down and keep the gang together for one last romp.

That said, as I see it, the following teams have the space and desire to make a pitch for pavs north of 7M with 3+ term: COL, CLB, NJ, MIN, BUF, VAN.

Which of those teams would pavs want to go to, even for an extra Mil or two? Colorado would be interesting perhaps, but the rest could be bottom feeders. Compare that to sticking around SJ, where his family and home are and where he will have a chance to compete for a cup as captain every year: Seems like a pretty easy call assuming dougie is not insultingly low in his offer.

There simply arent that many teams that can add a big salary and those that can are generally teams with issues. CLB without panarin, bob, or duchene? Not a great destination. NJ is exciting, but could be at the very bottom as they were this year. BUF? argh. Minny, declining and missed the POs. VAN? on the improve but still seemingly miles away.

And BTW, I would add that the same issue exists in terms of offer sheets. Few teams have the space to make offer sheets, and those that do might be very hesitant to lose the picks that go with them.

The low cap seems to hurt, but the abundance of high end RFA's, combined with the lower cap makes a nice brew for reasonable salaries and terms.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 4:51 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Vorg_Vaarg</b></div><div>Last I checked Marleau is still a Cane. He should stay there.</div></div>

zero chance he stays a cane. He has already publicly said that he only wants to play for the sharks next year. His home is SJ, he sold his toronto house but I believe still has his SJ house. It's always been the plan to retire in SJ. This was a simple 1st rounder in exchange for buyout cap space. pure and simple. I put the chances that he is a shark this season at 80%+.

As for the cap numbers, Dougie will not offer meier more than 2 yrs, 5M per. Could he get a 6x6M offer sheet? yes. maybe even 7x7. Possible. but I am not sure meier would sign it anyways for two reasons:

1. The sharks have invested alot in him and there is a sense of loyalty and happiness around the sharks culture. Any offer sheet team would be some team that might suck.
2. If he signs a 2 yr, 5M per bridge. Then plays the two years and puts up 70+ pts in each, as he very well might, then 6-7M would be waay too low. At that point, dougie would give him 5 years, 8M per. take the 2 yr, 10M + 5 yr, 40M and you get 7 years for 50M. That's actually more money than the 7x7 that he might get in an offer sheet. Not to mention playing in a great place with a great culture and a great chance to each year. Meier has seen that cooch got his money. Pavs got his money. After the bridge deal, Dougie tends to follow up with 5-8 year extensions at big money.

It makes all the sense in the world for Meier to take a bridge then cash in big at age 24 or 25.

Labanc is a higher risk situation, so it makes more sense for him to take a possible 1 year show me. If he wants 5+ years, he'll get no more than 4M or 4.5M per most likely in an offer sheet. I could not imagine an offer sheet coming at 6M+. If he were to sign a 5x4.5 offer, he gets 22.5M. but if he takes a 2 yr, 6M bridge, and rocks it (50+ pts, better defensively). He'll cash in well above 5M per for 5+ years.

Both guys are in a position to ash in much larger in the longer term.

They are also both very different from similar aged RFAS like Marner, rantanen, laine, connor, Werenski or the like because those guys have put up multiple huge seasons, and have multiple top line production years. Even Nylander had two 60+ pt seasons before holding out last year. Meier and labanc both have only one real season of top 6 performance (even labanc is iffy if he is that category right now). As such, they still need to prove themselves but can cash in majorly if they do. Bridge deals are, by nature, shorter and cheaper, than anything a UFA would get, so thats why meier wont be bridged at 6+, nor labanc much above 3.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 23, 2019 at 4:02 a.m.
Thread: Ideal and Realistic
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Vorg_Vaarg</b></div><div>What part is realistic? The part where a 50+ point legend gets 700k? Or the part where Meier only gets 5 mil? Not happening dude. Jumbo will get at least 2 mill while Meier will get at minimum 5.6 mill.</div></div>

watch and wait. These numbers are spot on. meier may even go as low as 2yrs, 4M per. He had one big year. He is still 22. The sharks do not sign guys in his spot to 6 year deals, like the nylander one. They have a LOOOONG history of 1-2 year bridges. Look back at hertl, pavelski, couture, tierney, and others and you will see. meier will sign a bridge at 5M per max. Also, labanc may end up between 2-3M and I could see his being a 1 year "show me" deal for just 2M. Tierney signed a 1 year "show me" deal for under 1M, then emerged for 40 pts, and got paid well (2 yrs, 6M) for showing [then got dealt]. Labanc still has some major flaws that will keep him from the big bucks. If he signs a 1 yr 2M deal, then puts together a strong 2 way season, He'll cash in much bigger on the next deal.

Jumbo will take whatever is left. He could care less about an extra million. its not about what he's worth (on the open market, someone would throw 4M at him), it's about the team for him. he's 40. he's rich. another million matters zero to him. Dougie bought his loyalty by finding 8M to give him after a major knee injury, and then another 5M after a second knee injury. Jumbo wants a last chance at a cup. Dougie will give it to him. Jumbo will be happy to take league min for that shot...

I would add that patty is in the exact same boat. hes also to be 40. he has millions. he cares nothing of 1M more. he'll also take league min or whatever is left over.

neither jumbo or patty would want to force the sharks to trade a guy like labanc or force pavs to walk to get paid more. They want a chance to win the cup in SJ. league min gives them the best chance at it.

Pavelski is a bit different. He may take a small hometown discount, but he is still rightly looking for bigger money. Thus, the only way to keep him in teal is to offer significant term. Dougie is hesitant to do that, for good reason, but I think keep pavs for a while is very important.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2019 at 12:42 p.m.
Thread: Tough offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ThatGuy</b></div><div>Damnnnnn... well It's definitely going to be an interesting summer! lol

I am little surprise. I would have thrown a lot of money on Karlsson not signing in SJ, just looking at the upcoming RFAs and UFAs.

You like the Karlsson deal?</div></div>

Yes, indeed, it will be an interesting summer. I thought Karlsson was gone too, but Doug Wilson is a master of acquiring talent either for one year or at the deadline, wooing them, and keeping them. Thornton, Burns, Kane, Jones, and now Karlsson. All brought in by big trade, and resigned long term. He is the best salesman Ive ever seen...

And yes I like the deal. The sharks have a fearsome D for the next 5 years. They can focus on building up a young cheap O core and give the chwins, gambrell, True, Perron, Kellman, Yurtaykin, gregor, blichfeld, etc a real look. With puck movers like Burns and karlsson on the ice for most of the game, the young O should be helped alot too. I expect two young players to emerge this year as legit top 9 forwards.

Talent is rare. Getting it takes more than just money as some team might have offered a similar deal. When norris talent becomes available, you have to jump on it. You can let it walk to save 1-2M. This is a huge move, and leaves very few holes on the roster.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 17, 2019 at 12:30 p.m.
Thread: 8x1145
Its a brilliant move. Nothing short of it. You gotta look at the whole picture.

1. The D is now awesome and they brought back one of the best Defensive assistant coaches who transformed burns into a norris winner. He will help Karlsson make better reads and shore up defensively. 3 norris candidates on one team forver. Thats amazing.
2. They have a ton of offensive prospects in the system and nothing much on D. It's time to use those O prospects and if they find a couple good ones on ELC's, the O will not suffer.
3. The cap will go up. In 5 years, there will be 15M more in cap space but the salaries of the big 3 will be the same. In 5 years, 11M will be the equivalent of maybe 7M today. 7M for a 35 year old karlsson may be reasonable. Recognize the major effects of discounting and net present value.
4. top talent is finite and doesnt necessarily go the highest bidder. Its almost impossible to acquire. When you can get it, you get it.
5. O depth is easy to acquire and regularly available. Secure the D, and then they can see what they have on O and add if needed at the deadline.

This move puts the sharks in contention for the next 5 years.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 14, 2019 at 5:03 p.m.
Thread: Sharkies feel good story
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>bunnymcfoo</b></div><div>While I like a lot about this there's a couple of problems:

1) PDB wouldn't play Ryan in that position - it's just never going to happen. You'd need to sub in Heed or another RD.

2) Neither Chekhovich nor Chmelevski are going to start the season in a Sharks jersey. The prospect scrimmage is on the 28th (I'm excited for it!) and we'll see what they bring at that point, but it's a 99.9% chance that they start out on the Cuda. Whether or not they stay there is debatable, but the way that Doug Wilson runs his club is with the new kids working their way up.

3) The backup goalie situation is going to be a problem. From having watched his play this last season with the Cuda, I wouldn't think he's ready &amp; needs at least one more year down - but Bibeau is streaky and seems to have a little bit of a temper problem. :/

Either way, I don't think that very many Sharks fans want Patty back to play. Jumbo had a damn fine season playing with two fast, young dudes who he could feed pucks to - Patty is neither of those things at this point. I'd love to have him back for a one day contract so he can retire in teal, but other than that, no, thank you. Hard pass.</div></div>

Thanks for the good thoughts!

1. I think you might be right about Ryan, and perhaps one of the cuda (roy, wood, or disimone) might get a look. If EK65 comes back, the 6th and 7th D spots are just not major considerations. They can always sign some vet off the trash heap.
2. Chekhovich looked almost NHL ready last preseason. I think you may be right about getting the Chwins line 1 minutes on the cuda first. They certainly wont be press box riders. However, I also wouldnt be shocked to see one make the team. I think there will be alot of competition among young forwards for roster space. its much easier to acquire a middle 6 forward throughout the season than a top liner or a top Dman if needed.

3. Backup goalie is always a bit tricky. Korenar and Bibeau are not spectacular, but I think they need to save the 1M for that position. Acquiring a backup goalie mid year is also pretty easy (like Reimer in 2016).

4. I agree that patty is not particularly good now. Jumbo got rather exposed in the PO's too. Still, for 1M, I think it's worth it. Sharks fans definitely still want to see patty and jumbo for one more year, just not at 6M/yr. But for 1M, his veteran presence on the 3rd or 4th lines is worth it. And don't underestimate the importance of character in the locker room. Having patty back would give another great mentor for the young forwards coming up. It's definitely a real possibility...

if the only problems with the roster are depth Dmen, backup goalies, and what kids make the team, then that's pretty nice!
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2019 at 12:44 p.m.
Thread: Doug Wilson- Bad at Drafting
Ridiculous: bad at drafting?? hahaha.... He has had one bad season is 16 years (resulting in one natural top 10 pick. Timo meier). The traded up to grab Cooch in 2007.

He has drafted Braun, Labanc, Pavelski, Bonino (that was a bad trade to ANA), jason Demers, Tommy Wingels, Dylan Demelo, joakim ryan all in the 6th round or later. That's amazing!

We may soon be adding Blichfeld, Chekhovich, Chmelevski to that list. And maybe even McGrew. Leonard and Emond.

Simply put, while he has never drafted an uber star, that's true, he has consistently drafted quality NHL players without the benefit of a high draft pick beause he has overseen the most wins in the NHL since his tenure began. The only thing he hasnt done is find the magical combo to win a cup. Then again, no GM has with his lack of top picks.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 26, 2019 at 1:04 a.m.
Thread: Get Bread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>sharks_1999</b></div><div>YES! I love seeing armchairs with Panarin, but I agree, the D is awful</div></div>

I made an interesting change. Drop Dillon, add Ron Hainsey. Seem weird, I know. Why add a 38 year old to an already old D?

1. he played 20 mins/gm in toronto.
2. He was a +30!!, followed up with a +5 in the POs in 7 games. He doesnt score much, but he doesnt give it up either.
3. He was excellent in the Pitt cup run of 2017, so he gives the sharks a cup winner, something they completely lack.

I dont think this D is bad at all. Simek is excellent in his own zone. Vlasic returned to himself as a dominant shut down Dman. Braun pairs beuatifully with him. Hainsey has been extraordinarily good in his own end and pairs well with Ryan to star the year and then with Sund, Ferraro, Middleton, Disimone or whoever else throughout the year.

The sharks went all in for offense this season and they managed to outscore everyone for a while. eventually they were beat by a better defensive system. The sharks need to refocus on the defensive side of the game. Panarin has proven himself to be a very good defensive player. Hainsey has as well.

Some other guys to think about for depth include: Garnet Hathaway, michael ferland...
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 25, 2019 at 11:39 a.m.
Thread: Get Bread
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Hedman77</b></div><div>I agree Sharks should go after Panarin. Question is if Meier and Labanc take those bridge deals.

If I were them I would, I’d be helping the team and probably getting Dillon or Braun’s money when it’s done</div></div>

The Bridge deals are dougie's MO. He has done them with pretty much every expiring ELC of note. He doesnt sign 22/23 year olds to 8 year deals. Hertl, pavs, cooch, etc all did them. 2 years tends to be the norm. If Meier or bancer had 3 seasons of 70+ pts, it might be different. However, neither had over 40 pts until this year. They will take the reasonable 2 year, 'show me' deals, and then cash in big if they 'show'.

I doubt panarin will come, but he is amazing, and a solid 200 foot player. When he goes somewhere, the team wins. He's extremely consistent, solid defensively, shoots well, passes well, skates well, is healthy as he has missed just 6 games in the last 4 years, he has been point per game or better all but one PO's. He has never missed the PO;s but chicago missed after he left and CBJ missed before he came. He is a winner despite having never passed the 2nd round. He'd be just as good as getting Tavares....
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2019 at 11:06 p.m.
Thread: From D out
1. the 2 year bridges that everyne signs are in the realm as I posted. midyear, labanc was a fourth liner in th doghouse. He was big minus on the season and minus in the playoffs. He's shown flashes of brilliance, but the consistency and 200 foot game is still lacking. 2 years 6-7M total is right in line for a "show me" deal. If he has two good years, he'll cash in long term. Meier is similar. He had one big year. 2 yrs, 10M is his show me deal. If he repeats this year 2 more times, then he'll cash in at 7+.

2. Jumbo will resign. Likely he'll resign for whatever is left at the end of the summer. He and dougie will discuss how to create the team and he'll take the max dougie can give him to fit within the roster construction. Might be 3M, might be 800k.

3. kane is as streaky as it gets and defensively porous. 1 goal in the last 19 PO games? from a 30 goal scorer? You gotta be kidding. And he was NOT matched up with other teams' top lines (that was cooch's job). So, he got second pairing Dmen, middle six forwards, and still failed miserably going minus in 10 of the last 18 games. And that's a repeat of last year when he had just one point versus vegas. He disappears and is not defensively good enough to contribute when hes not on the scoresheet. His dumb penalties dont help the team win. I want him gone so bad, but I dont think ill get what I want.

4. Braun is definitely moveable. A dman averaging over 20 mins/gm, playing a shut down role, signed under 4m? Very tradeable. Dillon is too. Melker is only 2M, so while the return will be small, someone will like him as he did pot 12 goals and kills penalties, etc. Dell also is a good vet backup who had some good numbers. someone may bit on him too. The return will be minimal but I dont think salary will need to be retained.

5. Of course you need 23 guys. The roundout of the roster can be league min vets like haley. If they need to shave off a little $$, they might get myers at 6.5, labanc at 3 even, or EK65 at 10.5 (which is still an AAV well over 11 compared to a 7 year deal he could get elsewhere). Dougie can squeeze as needed...
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 17, 2019 at 10:59 a.m.
Thread: Tough offseason
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ThatGuy</b></div><div>Out of curiosity... Why do you think Pavelski isn't already extended?</div></div>

Cap flexibility. I think the idea is that Pavs will be resigned, just the number and term might depend on other players. If EK65 walks and the sharks have more space next year, it will be higher dollars and shorter term. If EK65 resigns and cap space is tighter, it will be longer term, lower AAV. Dougie knows he wants pavs to retire in teal, just like Jumbo, and like Jumbo, SJ is home to pavs, his wife and son, etc.

When a resign is a foregone conclusion, its less about urgency and getting it done as it is about balancing player vs. team needs. I think the structure of pavs resign (and jumbo perhaps) depend on EK65, the bridge deals to labanc and meier, and what the cap situation looks like. Once that picture is clear, then dougie will offer pavs a fair contract. maybe 2 years 8.5M per. Maybe 5 years, 6M per (front loaded: 9,8,7,4,2 or something like that. That deal is two deals: a two year 8.5M per and a 3 year 4.3M per after that at age 37). Pavs will retire in teal and will get market value (8-9M per the next few years), its just a matter of figuring out strategically the right way to structure it.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2019 at 1:16 p.m.
Thread: Creating a Dynasty
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>klondikebar</b></div><div>Yeah but the Sharks get the calls that mean the most, cough cough 5 minute major</div></div>

define "mean the most"? In game two, with the sharks up 1-0 in games, vegas jumps out to a 3-0 lead. sharks roar back to tie 3-3. Then, they score a 4-3 go ahead goal. They have all the momentum, all the energy and are up 4-3 in the 2nd period. If they win, they take a 2-0 lead in the series and have a 90% win probability.... So what happens?

Refs waive off the goal and assess a penalty to couture. Replays show that the call was terrible as fleury did a triple axel to embellish and was way out beyond the blue paint, but because of the penalty, it's not reviewable. On the ensuing PP, Vegas scores to go up 4-3 and ultimately wins the game. I would argue that call as as big as the PP. After all, the refs straight up took a goal away from the sharks that migth have changed the whole series. On the penalty, the refs didnt give the sharks 4 goals.

What I'm saying is that everyone looks at a key call and jumps to the conclusion that it's the reason the result happened. I would argue there are many calls during games that are equally important but happen at different junctures yet have a similar impact on the outcome of a game. That couture call in game 2 was HUGE, yet gets forgotten. The missed 4 penalties in last night's game, especially the puck over glass when the Sharks were leading in the second period was huge as perron scored shortly after and the blues grabbed the momentum.

So, while I would argue that the sharks have gotten some big calls in high visibility times, I would argue about whether they mean more, statistically and probabilistically, than the calls that have gone against them. The win probability changes from those calls may not be that much higher than the win probability changes from calls that went against the sharks earlier in games or in the series.

Game 2 counts just as much as game 7. and 4 PPs that should have happened for the sharks counts just as much as a missed hand pass (give the sharks 8 PP minutes in regulation and that means STL cannot score for those 8 mins and the sharks score around 1 goal expected and win in regulation 5-3). Our congnitive bias and inability to understand statistics and probability leads to a hyperfocus on the 5 min penalty or the hand pass, but it's mathematically dubious.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 16, 2019 at 12:48 p.m.
Thread: Team is Clearly Fine
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BOLTLOVER1</b></div><div>I think the point is . Without ref help .. the Sharks wouldn't be where they are tonight .. that unquestionably true .. but it is refs fault and what will cause major officiating changes next year.. why evert goal isnt reviewed is baffling to me .. like ever touchdown is in football. . #s about the same</div></div>

I think that's likely true if you look only at the calls that went the sharks way and were wrong.

1. The big 5 minute major wrong call went the sharks way. In game 2, however, a goal was waived off and couture given a penalty on a goal that would have made it 4-3 sharks after falling behind 3-0 in the first. Instead, vegas scored on the PP: 2 goal swing and a horrific call. What happens in that series if the call is not made and the sharks win game 2?

2. Against colorado, the play was reviewed and called appropriately. It was offside. unfortunate that it was away from the play, but offside is offside. the refs didnt blow that call and neither did toronto. Just happens.

3. Last ngiht the refs missed 4 obvious penalties against the blues (1. a clear puck over glass, and then perron scores shortly after, 2. a head shot on Braun by Blais, 3. a nasty slash on haley's wrist., 4. Meier was tripped by bouwmeester seconds before the goal, which is why he was on his knees). What happens if the sharks get the four extra PP's they should have?

All the whining about the refs ignores calls that have gone the other way because the ones that went for the sharks happened at more visible moments. Perhaps if the sharks got the calls they should have in other occasions, then the game doesnt go to OT last night. Sharks win 5-3 in regulation and that's that. Against vegas, perhaps the sharks win game 2, go up 2-0 and win the series much earlier. Hell, even last night, perhaps the sharks win the game later in OT anyways (they had a grade chance chance by cooch shortly before). Its impossible to know what would have happened, but the sharks have gotten some key (wrong) calls and have been bitten badly by some too.